Senate sweepstakes take a turn as Democrats dealt gift with Montana but suffer blow with Maryland

It was a consequential week for the 2024 race for control of the Senate, where Democrats were dealt both a political gift and a new challenge in races in Montana and Maryland as they attempt to hold on to their slim Senate majority.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) announced Friday that he will run for Senate in Montana, defying the wishes of national Republicans and setting up a contentious primary to take on vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Meanwhile, in Maryland, Republican Larry Hogan, the popular former governor, said he plans to run for the state’s open Senate seat, potentially making the race to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) more competitive than previously thought. 

In Montana, Republicans had hoped to avoid a bitter primary in what they see as a must-win state. Tim Sheehy already has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and also received a key endorsement from former President Donald Trump hours after Rosendale announced his decision to jump into the race.

While Trump stopped short of going after Rosendale, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the NRSC, had harsher criticism for the Montana congressman who failed to unseat Tester once before in 2018.

“It’s unfortunate that rather than building seniority for our great state in the House, Matt is choosing to abandon his seat and create a divisive primary,” he said in a statement. “Whichever party wins the Montana Senate seat will control the United States Senate in 2024, and Republicans cannot risk nominating a candidate who gave Jon Tester the biggest victory of his career.”

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Democrats celebrated Rosendale’s entrance into the race, calling it a “nightmare” scenario for Republicans.

“The NRSC’s Montana nightmare just came true as their plans to avoid a nasty, expensive primary came crashing down around them,” said Tommy Garcia, a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman. “Whichever candidate emerges from their bruising intraparty fight will be deeply damaged and abhorrent to the voters that decide the general election.”

Tester is one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2024, in a state Trump easily won twice. Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said he believes the race will be a competitive one but that this primary improves Tester’s chances of getting reelected.

“There is now going to be an expensive, hard-fought, and nasty primary on the Right. Sheehy will now have to concentrate on defeating Rosendale,” Reinish said. “Jon Tester is never breathing easy, but he’s walking a little lighter today.”

There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans, and nearly all competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) tries to maintain his slim majority. A state almost no one thought would be competitive is Maryland.

Hogan is expected to easily win the Republican nomination for the seat that’s open after Cardin announced his retirement. On the Democratic side, Rep. David Trone (D-MD) is facing off against Angela Alsobrooks, the executive of Prince George’s County. 

While Reinish said Hogan’s entrance into the race is a major boost for Republicans, the state will still be difficult for the GOP to flip.

“Hogan was a popular governor. However, while Maryland, like Massachusetts, like Vermont, all really blue states, will sometimes, not infrequently, break that partisan rank at the home, statewide level and elect a moderate Republican attorney general or governor, Maryland has not sent a Republican to the Senate in decades,” he said. 

“You consider it the best recruitment Republicans have had in Maryland in decades, but it will be incredibly uphill for him,” Reinish added. “But, Democrats will now have to pay attention to Maryland, which they did not think they would have to do.”

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David Bergstein, a spokesman for the DSCC, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Hogan would face a challenge: “Democrats have won every statewide federal election in Maryland for 44 years and 2024 will be no different,” he wrote.

Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 51 seats in the chamber. Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, seven are in states that went for Trump in 2016, 2020, or both. There are no Republican seats up in states won by either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or President Joe Biden in 2020.