Montana
Montana’s housing market experiences a summer cooldown
Warmer summer weather has brought cooler housing market conditions to Montana.
“The market right now just feels like it’s a bit lukewarm,” said Brian Huskey, a Billings, Montana-based ERA American Real Estate agent. “There is still moderated demand from buyers, but there are a lot of people just sitting on the sidelines right now because housing affordability and rates are playing a big role in people’s decisions.”
In Billings, the 90-day average Altos Research Market Action Index score as of July 19, 2024, was 38.77, down slightly from the 44.48 a year prior and the 51.72 recorded in July 2022. At the height of the pandemic market in June 2021, however, the Billings metro area reported a Market Action Index score of 75.42. Altos considers anything above a Market Action Index score of 30 to be a seller’s market.
While the market has cooled since then, Billings’ drop in Market Action Index score is fairly moderate compared to other pandemic housing hotspots like Austin, Texas, whose score has dropped from a max of 100 in June 2021 to 33 as of mid-July 2024.
Huskey attributes the relative stability of Billings’ housing market to the fact that it is more of a working class community with a stable job market.
“We’ve got a lot of stable jobs at the big refineries and in the medical field, and with that comes stability for the housing market,” Huskey said. “We don’t see the same size of market swings as they do out in the more luxury second home markets like Bozeman.”
Charlotte Durham, the leader of the Bozeman-based, Sotheby’s International Realty-brokered Charlotte Durham Team, wouldn’t necessarily say that her local housing market has experienced a massive swing, but she said it’s certainly cooled down.
“This was the slowest June we’ve seen in many years in our market,” Durham, a luxury-focused agent, said. “We saw things pick up a little after the Fourth of July, but it is still slower than we’ve seen in our market since probably pre-COVID.”
Overall, the Bozeman housing market’s Market Action Index score has dropped from a 90-day average of 32.38 in mid-July 2024 from 66.88 in early June 2021. In the upper quarter of the market, which Altos defines as homes priced between $1.38 million and $2.835 million, it has dropped to 37.93 from a high of 72.75 in Dec. 2021. For properties priced around $2.835 million, the Market Action Index score has dropped to 29.74 from 44.75 in Dec. 2021
This slowdown has been a boon for buyers who are still in the market.
“Especially in the $2 million to $5 million range, there is quite a bit of inventory now sitting on the market and it is great property,” Durham said. “So, I think we are going to have to see prices come down a little, especially in that price range.”
Compared to a year ago, the 90-day average median list price is down $300,000 to $1.2 million, according to Altos data. In the top segment of the market, which is anything above $2.835 million, list prices have fallen in recent weeks, dropping from $3.6 million in mid-April to $2.9 million in mid-July.
Agents say the lower list prices have been a hard bill for sellers to swallow.
“The market is definitely better than it was the summer of 2022, but it is still similar to the summer of 2022,” Austin Baumgartner, who leads the Keller Williams Northwest Montana-brokered team Hidden Homes Montana, said. “Prices had been going up and up and now they are starting to come back down. We are seeing more price reductions in the market, but some folks are freaking out a little and if a property is sitting for 90 days instead of 45 days like most were, they cut the price to get ahead of other properties.”
However, Baumgartner said the uptick in days on market doesn’t really bother him.
“It is a more normalized market,” he said. “Inventory is rising a little bit, it isn’t as high as in 2019, but it’s better than it has been and it’s still slightly a seller’s market, so we are just moving to a levelized market.”
Statewide, Altos data supports Baumgartner’s assertions. The 90-day Market Action Index score was at 33.66 in mid-July, a very slight seller’s market and 90-day average for active single-family listings has risen to 3,258 listings, its highest level since mid-March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But while the uptick in inventory is good news for buyers, there is no hiding the fact that home prices in the state have risen drastically over the past five years. In the late summer of 2019, Altos data shows that the 90-day average median list price in Montana hovered around $390,000. As of mid-July 2024 it had risen to $725,000.
Statewide, agents attribute this massive jump in home prices to the pandemic homebuying boom and the rapid influx of out-of-state buyers who flocked to Montana. While the influx of out-of-state buyers certainly helped increase property values in the state, agents say it has made thing challenging for locals looking to buy a house.
“It is a more than controversial issue,” Baumgartner said. “It is bad. Montanans have a lot of pride in the state and in owning property here, but most people can’t buy houses right now. Inflation is too high and with the amount most people make for in state jobs, you’d have to have like three jobs to buy a house, unless you are in a higher paying industry.”
Robyn Erlenbush, an ERA Landmark Real Estate agent in Bozeman, has also witnessed the rapid home price appreciation take a toll on her local clients.
“When Bozeman was discovered again, if you will, there was a big influx of people with cash,” Erlenbush said. “So, you all of a sudden had more competition driving prices up and then you had interest rates go up and it was a perfect storm of ingredients that made it difficult for the local buyer. I know of people who ended up buying 90 miles away from their jobs here in Bozeman because they couldn’t afford to purchase anywhere closer.”
If interest rates were to fall in the next few months, local agents say some buyers may gain an advantage. But it might be short lived.
“It is an election year and people tend to get a little skittish because they don’t know what is going to happen. But if interest rates fall just a little bit, we are going to have a gangbusters fourth quarter, no matter what happens with the election,” Baumgartner said. “There are just going to be a ton of people who want to buy and sell. The stuff above $1 million might still be a bit slower, but the stuff below, I think we’ll see some multiple offer situations. It is going to be interesting to watch.”
MISSOULA — Sam Forstag edged out Ryan Busse to secure the Democratic nomination in Montana’s 1st Congressional District.
Busse conceded the race to Forstag on Wednesday morning. Forstag had trailed behind Busse Tuesday evening, but he made up ground as the votes were counted into the early hours of Wednesday morning. The other two candidates in the race, Russl Cleveland and Matt Rains, are sitting at third and fourth, respectively.
Forstag leads in close race for Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Forstag spent eight years as a wildland firefighter, including four as a smokejumper, and he’s been vice president of the local National Federation of Federal Employees union. Last week, U.S. House of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, held a rally in Missoula to support Forstag’s campaign.
He told MTN on Tuesday that his campaign has been for the working class.
“We got a whole lot of people here that have been working their tail off to finally get some working-class representation in Washington,” Forstag noted. “So proud of everything we’ve done and so grateful.”
Forstag further noted he wants Montanans to be able to afford groceries, have universal free childcare and restore and expand Affordable Health Care Act subsidies.
“Hearing people’s stories and struggles and commonalities in the ways that we’re all fighting in the system that does not serve us so often, and the government serves corporations and the richest people in this country more than working people. It has been frustrating and saddening, but it has also inspired so much hope in me, like the fixes we can actually make,” he told MTN.
The 1st Congressional District covers much of western Montana, including Kalispell, Missoula, Butte and Bozeman. It is currently held by Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Montana, who chose not to seek reelection.
By securing the nomination, Forstag is slated tol face off against Libertarian candidate Nick Sheedy and Republican candidate Aaron Flint in November.
Brian Miller won the Democratic primary Tuesday for the U.S. House seat in Montana’s eastern district.
The Associated Press called the race for Miller, an attorney in Helena, who fended off a challenge from state Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy, a longtime legislator from Box Elder, and Sam Lux, a farrier from Great Falls.
In the Republican and rural eastern district, any Democrat will be an underdog, and Miller will face off against incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, who was unopposed Tuesday.
Libertarian Patrick McCracken is also running.
In the primary, Miller took 58% of the vote. Lux took 27% and Windy Boy took 16%, according to the Montana Secretary of State’s website.
In April, Windy Boy paused his campaign amid “serious sexual abuse” allegations raised by the Montana Democratic Party — but Windy Boy restarted his campaign and later called the allegations “political attacks.”
Miller is representing the victim of the alleged abuse and her mother, although he said he didn’t take on the role until after Windy Boy initially suspended his campaign.
The Western Montana Food and Farm Trail, a new agritourism initiative led by Farm Connect Montana, launches May 30, offering locals and visitors a new kind of food and farm adventure across Western Montana.
Running June 1 through October 31, the self-guided Trail spans more than 200 miles and features more than 100 farms, ranches, farmers markets, restaurants, breweries and food businesses across the Missoula, Bitterroot, Flathead and Mission Valleys. Along the way, participants are invited to meet growers and makers, taste what’s in season and experience the culture and care behind Western Montana’s local food community.
At the center of the experience is the passport-style Trail Field Guide, illustrated by Missoula-based artist Courtney Blazon. The guide features illustrated maps, curated itineraries, seasonal highlights and more than 100 local food destinations throughout the region. The guide also includes more than $130 in special offers from participating farms and businesses.
Participants can collect stamps at Trail stops along the way to qualify for prizes, giveaways, or simply as a way to document their journey. End-of-season prizes include raffles for three CSA memberships valued at over $600 each, as well as local food and farm gift certificates, product bundles and Courtney Blazon-designed market totes.
The Trail is a regional collaboration led by Farm Connect Montana in partnership with Land to Hand Montana, The O’Hara Commons and Sustainability Center and Abundant Montana, organizations working to strengthen local food systems across Western Montana. The project aims to support local farms and food businesses through expanded visibility and agritourism opportunities while reconnecting locals and visitors with the people, places and stories behind their food.
“In creating the Western Montana Food & Farm Trail, we hope to inspire both residents and travelers to discover the stories behind their food and connect with the people cultivating a more vibrant, resilient and locally rooted food community,” said Bonnie Buckingham, Executive Director of Farm Connect Montana. “Participation in the Trail is a win for everyone. It creates new opportunities for farms and local food businesses to reach wider audiences while encouraging participants to explore new places, support local producers and experience Western Montana in a more meaningful way.”
“Land to Hand is thrilled to partner with Farm Connect on the Food and Farm Trail to highlight the robust agricultural heritage of Western Montana,” said Gretchen Boyer, Executive Director of Land to Hand Montana. “This initiative is more than just a guide – it’s an invitation to celebrate and support the local farmers who nourish our communities every day. By connecting residents and visitors directly to the source, we’re strengthening our local food system and honoring the people and landscapes that sustain the Flathead Valley.”
To celebrate the launch, regional Trail launch parties will take place in Missoula, the Bitterroot Valley and the Flathead Valley throughout early June, featuring Field Guide distribution, local food vendors, giveaways and opportunities to learn more about the Trail.
Trail Field Guides ($10) will be available for purchase beginning May 30 both online and at participating businesses, farmers markets and community locations throughout the region. A full list of Field Guide purchase locations and details, as well as a digital map and Trail listings, special events and more information is available at farmconnectmontana.org/trail.
Funding for this project was made possible through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service.
Regional launch events
• Missoula Launch Party — LaLonde Ranch, Sun., June 7, 1-4 p.m.
• Bitterroot Launch Party — O’Hara Commons Market, Wed., June 10, 4-6 p.m.
• Flathead Launch Party — Backslope Brewing, Tue., June 16, 4-7:30 p.m.
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