Idaho
Idaho State vs. Pepperdine Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-28-2023
Idaho State Bengals (3-3) vs. Pepperdine Waves (3-5)
Week 4 of the 2023-24 college basketball season continues Tuesday, November 28, with the Idaho State Bengals squaring off against the Pepperdine Waves in the non-conference battle at Firestone Fieldhouse in Malibu, California.
The Bengals meet the Waves for the first time since November 12, 2021, when Pepperdine outlasted Idaho State 65-60 as a 4.5-point fave. The Waves are 7.5-point favorites this time around, while the total sits at 141.0 points.
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Idaho State eyes its second straight W
The Idaho State Bengals take the floor for the first time in seven days. Last Tuesday, they beat Campbell 69-55 in the Campbell Classic to bounce back from a heartbreaking 62-61 defeat against The Citadel. The Bengals dominated the Fighting Camels for all 40 minutes, forcing them into 19 turnovers and posting 17 offensive rebounds.
Idaho State made 42.4% of its field goals (7-for-29 from deep) last Tuesday. The Bengals handed out 17 assists and committed 11 turnovers, while freshman guard Kolton Mitchell led the way with a line of 18 points, five rebounds, and three assists.
The Bengals are No. 261 in the KenPom rankings and No. 279 at Bart Torvik. They score 97.0 points per 100 possessions (321st in the nation) and surrender 105.6 points in return (208th). The Bengals play at a slow pace, recording just 66.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
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Pepperdine wants to stop its four-game slide
The Pepperdine Waves are riding a four-game losing streak. After an 82-68 home defeat to UNLV, the Waves have dropped all of their three contests in the Ball Dawgs Classic. They’ve lost to UC Irvine 76-60, Indiana State 90-82, and New Mexico 90-71.
Last Friday, the Waves were smashed by the Lobos, who led from start to finish and by as many as 27 points. New Mexico made 56.6% of its field goals (5-for-14 from deep), whereas Pepperdine shot 39.1% from the field (12-for-24 from downtown). Sophomore guard Malik Moore scored 18 points for the Waves, and junior guard Michael Ajayi added a double-double of 16 points and 13 rebounds.
Pepperdine is No. 191 in the KenPom rankings and No. 187 at Bart Torvik. The Waves tally 103.9 points per 100 possessions (191st in the country) and allow 105.2 points in return (197th). They rank 82nd in pace, notching 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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I think the Waves will put an end to their losing streak, but I don’t want to lay seven and a half with them. Pepperdine’s interior defense has been awful so far this season, and the Waves are traditionally a bad defensive team. The Bengals make 54.2% of their 2-pointers (79th in the nation), so I’m going with Idaho State to beat the number.
The Waves lean on their 3-point shooting, and the Bengals’ defense is 13th in the nation in 3-point rate (27.8) and 4th in 3-point percentage (29.3). Idaho State will look to slow the pace down as much as possible and force Pepperdine into half-court basketball. I’m expecting the Bengals to hang around down the stretch.
Prediction: Take the Idaho State Bengals +7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
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As I’ve mentioned above, Idaho State will try to slow things down in this matchup. On the other side, Pepperdine will look to push the ball in transition, and the Waves will take a shot from deep whenever they can.
The total is a tricky wager, and I lean toward the under. The Bengals are struggling to score and know that playing tough, aggressive defense is the only way to keep it close against the Waves. Each of the Bengals’ last five contests has seen fewer than 142 points on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Go over 141.0 points (-110)