As El Nino officially takes hold in the Pacific, the National Weather Service Thursday warned there’s a likely chance it could rank “among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.”

El Nino cycles, characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds, can cause changes in global weather patterns. In Hawaii, the cycle has been linked to more hurricane activity in the Central Pacific Basin in the summer and drought in the winter, which can lead to wildfire threats.

According to the latest update, published Thursday by NWS’s Climate Prediction Center, El Nino conditions developed over the last month with ocean surface temperatures ranging between .7 and 2.1 degrees Celsius, or 1.26 to 3.78 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal. Wind anomalies were also present in the central equatorial Pacific, which further fueled the cycle’s development.

A “very strong” El Nino — what some climatologists have dubbed a “super El Nino” — has a 63% chance of occurring between November and January, right at the end of Hawaii’s hurricane season. Hurricane season started June 1 and lasts through November.

Latest forecasts estimate for this season that there’s a 70% chance the Central Pacific Basin will see five to 13 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

National Weather Service meteorologist Derek Wroe said the El Nino cycle could mean the region sees a number of cyclones “on the higher range of that spectrum” with possibly more storms at the end of the season when the cycle is expected to be the strongest. He added that exact forecasts and conditions are still uncertain.

“We tend to have more tropical cyclone activity in El Nino years,” he said. “Very strong events bring those odds even higher.”

He reiterated that stronger El Nino cycles do not necessarily mean the weather events, like hurricanes, will be stronger, but rather that they are more likely to occur.

The latest El Nino forecast shows the majority of Hawaii’s hurricane season will likely be defined by moderate to strong El Nino conditions, with very strong conditions becoming more likely beginning in September.

Very strong El Nino seasons occur when sea surface temperatures rise above 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

Between now and August, El Nino conditions have a 32% chance of being weak and 58% of being moderate. That changes swiftly in the three month span from July through September, with a weak El Nino at 11%, moderate at 46%, strong at 36%, and very strong at 6%.

The odds shift from September through November, with the likelihood of a very strong El Nino jumping to 48%, and moderate decreases to 36%. Then, in the three month periods preceding both December and January, the likelihood for a very strong El Nino increase to 62% and 63% respectively.

Wroe said Hawaii residents can expect a slightly wetter summer — though it will still be fairly dry.

During winter, the island’s usual wet season, a strong El Nino could cause drought conditions and possibly bring wildfire risk, especially during the following summer.

He added that the high probability of very strong El Nino conditions is unique.

“Right now there’s a 63% chance that it could be a very strong El Nino,” he said. “A 63% chance of forecasting something — that doesn’t happen very often. That’s a very high probability.”

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – The killing of an elderly man in Liliha on Wednesday afternoon has neighbors recalling his kindness and questioning the circumstances of the murder.

Friends and neighbors at Nalanui Hale identified the 70-year-old victim as Jesus, who they called “Jessie.” HNN reached out to the Honolulu Medical Examiner to confirm his identity and we’re waiting to hear back.

Jesse Kilborn, who said he knew Jesus for more than 30 years, said he saw him just hours before he was killed.

“Nothing looked suspicious, he was in a good mood as usual,” Kilborn said. “It kinda hurt, ‘cause I know the guy long time. Really loved the guy, he’s a good guy.”

Honolulu police arrested a 32-year-old man nearby after he caused an unspecified disturbance about an hour before they found Jesus.

“Think he said he got attacked,” neighbor Brayden Acierto said.

Authorities have not released Jesus’ relationship to the 32-year-old, but some say Jesus was having trouble with his adult son, who was living with him.

Shana Mari Caminos, a maintenance worker who would see Jesus walk his dogs every day, said, “They were having problems with him (Jesus’ son), because he had some kind of anxiety issues. I’m not sure. They had to calm him down in certain situations.”

Acierto added, “I heard a week ago, they were arguing, like outside of here, couldn’t make it out, just like, shouting.”

HPD is investigating the case as a murder and HNN is waiting for more details.

“It makes me sad, because he was so nice, like a genuinely good guy, and I’m sure he was a good dad,” neighbor Trinity Dario said.

Anyone with information about the case is asked to call Honolulu CrimeStoppers at (808) 955-8300.

Travelers assume that this is a rare mainland prank. Yet Hawaii has one of the nation’s highest rates. If you have flown to Hawaii lately, here is a risk that none of us probably ever thought to worry about. It turns out to be more common in our skies than it is in nearly any other part of the country.

We are talking about lasers. Specifically, people on the ground aiming handheld laser pointers up at aircraft. Travelers who have heard of it at all likely file it in their minds under rare mainland prank, a reckless stunt that happens elsewhere, to someone else. So it surprised even us to see the U.S. Attorney for the District of Hawaii put it this plainly today:

“Hawaii has one of the highest rates of aircraft lasing in the nation.” — Ken Sorenson, U.S. Attorney for the District of Hawaii.

That is what got our attention. Not because it sounds dramatic, but because it places Hawaii at the center of a flight safety problem that most visitors never associate with the islands when they are flying here for a vacation in Hawaii.

And it is not the first time we have raised this. Back in 2023, when the FBI and police on Kauai and Maui issued warnings about lasers being pointed at aircraft here, we noted the practice had been going on for years without, as far as we could tell, a single arrest. We asked why. Now there is at least an answer: a guilty plea, a sentencing date, and a coordinated federal crackdown.

Why pilots fear this more than passengers do.

Someone pointing a laser at a plane doesn’t adequately explain what is really happening when a beam finds an airliner cockpit. A high-powered laser aimed into a flight deck can impair a pilot’s vision at the precise moment when seeing clearly is most critical.

Federal officials describe it as a direct threat to the pilot, the passengers, and everyone below. The FBI’s Honolulu office was blunt today that this is not a prank, because a bright enough beam can disorient a pilot during a critical phase of flight and interfere with safe aircraft operations.

The devices doing it are not always what buyers think they are. The U.S. Attorney’s office warns that laser pointers sold online are often mislabeled regarding class and power output, meaning something marketed as a harmless pointer can emit far more energy than it is advertised or than the user realizes. The person buying it online may think it is a gadget, not a federal crime waiting to happen.

Here’s the part that makes sense from Hawaii.

The danger is not over the open ocean on long overwater flights. It is right around the airport. Laser strikes occur low and close to the runway during takeoff and landing, when the cockpit can least afford a blinded pilot. And Hawaii has more of them, per person, than anywhere else in the country. The FAA has said the islands top the nation in per-capita laser strikes. The reasons reportedly come down to two things: good weather means people are outside at night year-round, and Hawaii’s airports sit close to the neighborhoods around them.

This is not a hypothetical problem, and it does relate to airlines. In recent years, passenger flights have been hit here in Hawaii, at the very airports you fly into. A Delta flight departing Honolulu for Seattle was struck by a green laser beam during takeoff. The laser beam was reported by Hawaii News Now to have come from Sand Island, very close to HNL airport. On Kauai and Maui, pilots have also reported their aircraft lit up by green lasers as they came in to land, with Maui incidents clustered around both Kahului and Kapalua. And in one recent eight-month period, according to FAA figures reported at the time, Hawaii logged 99 laser incidents, most of them around Honolulu and the rest across Kauai and Maui.

That does not mean travelers should board their next flight to Hawaii worried. It means the people responsible for keeping those flights safe are right to treat this as anything but a prank.

The Maui case that put a face on the laser problem.

The federal case now moving toward sentencing involves Jesse Kong, 30, of Maui, who pleaded guilty in April to being an accessory after the fact to a laser-pointer assault on a federal pilot. According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Kong bought a laser pointer online and loaned it to an associate who, with Kong also present, aimed it at an aircraft and into the cockpit, disorienting the pilot and interfering with operations.

The aircraft in this case just happened to be a federal one, an FBI plane, which is why the conduct here can carry a charge of assault on a federal officer. The lasers your own pilot faces on approach to Honolulu, Kahului, Kona or Lihue are the same hazard aimed at ordinary passenger flights.

Kong was not accused of being the actual person who aimed the laser. The government says he supplied the laser; however, he then falsely told FBI agents that the responsible people had already left, helping his associate avoid apprehension. Kong pleaded guilty to the lesser accessory offense and faces up to six months in prison when he is sentenced on June 17.

The broader federal exposure is much steeper. Knowingly aiming a laser at an aircraft is a felony punishable by up to five years in prison, and when the aircraft is federally operated, the conduct can also be charged as assault on a federal officer.

The good part is that the issue may be declining.

This is not a piece meant to scare anyone away from flying to Hawaii. The more useful takeaway is that a strange and dangerous problem is being treated seriously, and the early trend line is moving in the right direction.

The FAA says laser strikes in Hawaii were down 10.6% during the first five months of 2026. The agency credits enforcement and its public “Lose the Laser” campaign for helping move the numbers in the right direction.

Pilots and aviation crews report laser strikes to air traffic control and the FAA. Federal officials are also urging members of the public to contact authorities when they see someone aiming a laser at any aircraft.

That does not mean the problem is gone. It does suggest that when pilots report the problem, and federal agencies prosecute the incidents, while the public understands the danger, the behavior can be reduced.

So the next time you fly into Hawaii, this probably will not be the thing on your mind. You will be watching the coast come into view, waiting for the wheels to touch down at HNL, or thinking about your drive from the airport.

But above that familiar arrival is this reality. Hawaii’s skies are more vulnerable to ground-level recklessness than most travelers ever realize. Federal officials are now saying that plainly, and we’ll be watching what happens when Kong is sentenced on June 17.