Hawaii researchers develop model aimed at better predicting El Niño, La Niña

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa are making big strides in forecasting the oceanic rotation between El Niño and La Niña.

The weather pattern referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has global impacts, ranging from drought, severe weather, and the increased chance for tropical cyclones.

Now, researchers from the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology have created a new tool that assists in forecasting the weather phenomenon to 18 months out and beyond.

The research team developed a new conceptual model that uses fundamental physics to help predict whether El Nino or La Nina will emerge.

Forecasters have been attempting to better climate modeling like this for decades, especially considering the global impacts that the El Niño Southern Oscillation entails. This new tool works better than existing climate models and is comparable to cutting-edge AI forecasts.

Using the new model, the research team is expecting a strong La Niña to develop and peak in strength during the winter of 2024. Neutral conditions are expected to return in 2025.

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