First Alert Weather: Lighter trades and a slight chance of heavier showers start the work week

Moderate trades will bring some showers for windward and mauka locations. However, an upper level disturbance just north of Kauai and Oahu will bring some instability that could generate some briefly heavy showers, especially for leeward areas. Widespread rainfall isn’t likely because of a lack of organized low-level moisture. Breezier trades and more stable conditions will return Tuesday.

We are tracking a disturbance about 1,000 miles southeast of Hilo that has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. Even if it does develop into a tropical cyclone, it isn’t expected to last very long on a track that takes it south of the state. At most, some remnant moisture may clip Hawaii Island but that’s about it.

Surf along north and west shores will be generally flat Monday. A moderate long-period northwest swell will arrive Tuesday and push surf heights well above the seasonal average but will remain below the 15-foot high surf advisory threshold. South shores will remain small ahead of a reinforcing southwest swell late Monday into Wednesday. East shore surf will also remain small, with an upward trend Tuesday night or Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.

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