Forecast for Big Island Windward and Southeast

Forecast for Big Island Leeward

The current small northwest swell will decline tonight. A moderate northwest swell will build on Monday and produce surf above seasonal average during the peak Monday night and early Tuesday. This swell will slowly decline late Tuesday and Wednesday. A larger northwest swell could produce surf near the High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower Friday into next weekend.

A south-southwest swell will produce surf around seasonal average tonight and will gradually decrease Monday and Tuesday, with mainly small background surf along south facing shores through the rest of the week.

Trade wind swell will slowly lower below seasonal average on Monday and will remain small through the remainder of the week.

NORTH EAST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Semi choppy with ESE winds 5-10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in the afternoon.

NORTH WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Clean in the morning with ESE winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting W 5-10mph.

WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Light sideshore texture in the morning with NNW winds 5-10mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the WNW.

SOUTH EAST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Sideshore texture/chop with NE winds 10-15mph.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov and SwellInfo.com

Hawaiian Airlines ended as an independently functioning airline on April 22, but what it built didn’t end with it. The parts that, in hindsight, made Hawaiian feel ahead of everyone else are the same ones Alaska is now stepping into and scaling.

Just days before the flight code disappears, it is easier to see the shape of what Hawaiian actually was. It was not just the airline that could not make the numbers work; it was the airline that kept getting the future right earlier than almost everyone else around it.

Hawaiian Airlines saw premium differently.

Beat of Hawaii editors have both been flying the Pacific on Hawaiian for nearly a half-century. And we saw it at (mostly its best) firsthand, on the second-to-last HA1 from Los Angeles to Honolulu. The 787 was not trying to copy what other U.S. carriers were doing. It was trying to reset expectations entirely, and for a regional Hawaii airline, that meant more than it would have anywhere else. Hawaiian repeatedly won top-rated U.S. airline recognition year after year, for operational performance and service.

The Adient Ascent business class suites we experienced were one example. Hawaiian backed it early, before any other U.S. airlines had committed to something comparable. At the time, that looked like a risk for a carrier already on borrowed time and with little room for error. Now it looks like it was a blueprint.

Alaska’s new international business class uses the exact same business-class platform. The headlines now belong to Alaska, but the decision to believe in that suite, when it was still unproven, belongs exclusively to Hawaiian Airlines.

Hawaiian largely built a product that reflected the emotional aspects of Hawaii flights. TEAGUE designed the interior around Hawaii, with Polynesian navigation references overhead in the ceiling, Hawaiian touches throughout, and materials tied directly to the place in a way no U.S. airline even attempts. The seat, the layout, the feel of the cabin all reflected that, in some ways at least, perfectly.

We covered that in detail in Hawaiian Airlines Dreamliner First Class Review. When the Dreamliner arrived, nothing about that experience felt like a legacy airline barely holding on. It felt like something big, maybe just getting started.

Hawaiian moved first on what travelers actually use.

Before most U.S. airlines could stabilize their hodgepodge of largely poor-quality, expensive WiFi deployments, Hawaiian moved to Starlink across its fleet, putting very fast, free connectivity on all its trans-Pacific A330S and A321neos. It simply worked from gate to gate. No falderal, no log-in, no loyalty program or credit card.

Note: Unfortunately, Hawaiian was never able to achieve WiFi certification on its Dreamliners, and Alaska is just now in the process of obtaining that.

Starlink WiFi was not a small upgrade. It changed how Hawaii flights felt, especially for travelers who were used to paying for something slow or unreliable, if it existed at all. We cannot tell you how many times we’ve flown with other airlines that promised WiFi to and from Hawaii, only to find it didn’t work or didn’t work well. Hawaiian made the right call early, and it made it across two aircraft fleets already in service, not just on new plane deliveries.

Hawaiian identified the parts of the experience that travelers actually cared about, and it moved before anyone else did. Alaska now inherits that advantage. It does not have to explain why it counts or prove that it works, since all that came and went. Hawaiian already did its part, as have others since. Alaska has also decided to deploy Starlink WiFi across its entire network that BOH editors enjoyed on a brand new Alaska 737 MAX 8 about a week ago.

Hawaiian built a brand that traveled well: Pualani.

For decades, Hawaiian showed up in Australia, Japan, Korea, and New York City (pictured) with something that already had great meaning. And that too was not an accident, nor is it easy to replicate.

The Pualani brand was consistent. The identity was tied to our iconic home in a way that translated well internationally, especially in Japan, where airline brand perception still carries weight in purchasing decisions. Travelers were not just choosing a seat or a fare. They were choosing what the airline represented.

A national branding study ranked Hawaiian first among U.S. airlines for brand effectiveness, with a score of 123 out of 200 for logo recognition, brand attribution, and consistency. Alaska scored 74 and ranked ninth. We covered that gap about Hawaiian’s reach in How Hawaiian Airlines Pualani Branding Took Aloha Global. The difference was clearly not about marketing budgets. It was about what the brand stands for when it enters a market far from home.

We have previously explored what happened to that identity. The answer is not simple, and it is not finished. Alaska can keep parts, but it can never recreate the conditions that originally built it.

Hawaiian reached further than it was capable of.

Hawaiian ordered the 787 with plans that extended well beyond Asia, including potentially London and Singapore. It also kept flying routes that did not earn their keep and never figured out how to price its product the way the rest of the industry had learned to.

What it did not have was the corporate financial structure to keep it working when conditions tightened the way they did, and its ambitions outran the balance sheet years before Alaska ever stepped in.

The failure was not Hawaiian’s vision.

That part has already been told, and it does not need to be repeated here. We covered it in Why Hawaiian Airlines Failed: A Story of Planes, Promises, And Pride.

The timing, the cost structure, and the other breakdowns, both COVID-related and around the Saber-to-Amadeus migration in 2023, and other events, all seemed to come crashing down at once.

The leadership payouts that followed only sharpened the contrast. Peter Ingram at $13.2 million, Shannon Okinaka at $4.9 million, Jonathan Snook at $5.4 million, and Aaron Alter at $4.2 million. Those numbers landed hard with many when the airline itself couldn’t remain viable.

Hawaiian needed Alaska. This was not a strategic pairing of equals, as it was once called; it was a rescue.

Alaska gets the part Hawaiian could not finish.

Alaska inherits the aircraft decisions, product direction, connectivity upgrades, and early bets Hawaiian made when it still had room to maneuver. It gets to scale them across a far larger network, and with its stronger financial base.

It also inherits the harder question. What happens to the parts of Hawaiian that were not just operational decisions, but identity?

What Hawaii loses is harder to measure for residents and kamaaina.

Hawaiian was never the biggest airline serving the islands, nor the most profitable or efficient. What it was, for a long time, was the airline that understood uniquely what a Hawaii flight was supposed to feel like.

That was demonstrated in small ways and big ones. It showed up in how the cabin felt when you boarded, the unique Hawaii-based service provided, in how the brand translated overseas, in the decisions that put traveler experience ahead of short-term gain, and even good sense.

Those choices didn’t keep the airline alive. But they shaped what the airline became and what Alaska now has to work with. Hawaiian did not survive as an independent airline, and it did not disappear, exactly.

What does Hawaiian’s legacy mean to you now that the airline itself is no longer on its own, and does seeing Alaska build on what Hawaiian started change how you look at either one?

Lead Photo © Beat of Hawaii attending the inaugural HNL-JFK route celebration in New York City at Grand Central Station.

Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will produce moderate trade winds through Monday. Wind speeds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday as a weak cold front passes north of the island chain. Trade winds slowly return by the end of next week as the stalled front diminishes and the broad ridge builds back over the region.

Short term update

The infrared satellite imagery this evening shows a shallow cold front roughly 600 miles northwest of Kauai approaching the Hawaii region. This frontal cloud band will weaken and stall out north of the state with no significant rainfall impacts. Trade wind speed trends however will decrease as the trough breaks down the ridge north of the island chain. Light large scale winds over Hawaii from Tuesday through Thursday will trigger and expansion of onshore sea breezes during the daylight hours and offshore land breezes overnight. These light local scale winds are driven by diurnal thermal differences between ocean temperatures and island heating/cooling cycles.
The short range forecast grids look reasonable. No updates to the evening forecast.

Prev discussion

Issued at 352 PM HST Sat May 2 2026 Radar and satellite show mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers across most windward and many mauka areas, along with the Kona region of the Big Island, this afternoon. Very few showers have made it to leeward areas, but a good amount of cloud cover has moved in from time to time. Winds were generally out of the northeast at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts, but some leeward areas had west winds coming in off the ocean. These showers will decrease in the Kona region this evening, but otherwise should continue into the night.
With the upper low to our northeast finally moving away, upper level ridging will be able to strengthen. This will keep moderate to occasionally breezy trade winds with us through Monday as surface high pressure systems to our NE and NW move east across the Pacific. A weak trough (dying cold front) will move toward the area Monday, and pressure falls associated with its approach will veer winds to southeasterly Monday night. Light north to northeast winds behind the trough are expected to develop over western islands Wednesday, perhaps reaching as far east as Maui Wednesday night. With light winds Tuesday through Thursday, expect a few more clouds than normal over leeward areas, and perhaps a brief shower.
Winds will then return to southeasterly Thursday and remain that way into next weekend. PW values will be relatively low throughout the next week. The only day of values noticeably above 1″ will be Wednesday, when convergence from the surface trough will peak. Trades may return next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trades will persist through Sunday, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward sites. Expect periods of MVFR conditions in showers, otherwise widespread VFR is expected.
No AIRMETS are in effect.

Marine

No changes to the forecast this evening, and not expecting any significant changes with the morning package.
High pressure to the north-northeast will maintain trade winds through the remainder of the weekend. A front to the northwest will move to the east and help to weaken the ridge to the north. As a result, expect trades to steadily weaken, becoming light and variable by the middle of the week.
The current northwest swell (310-320 degrees) will gradually fade over the remainder of the weekend. Another small swell is expected to arrive late Sunday night/early Monday morning, and will help to maintain elevated surf along north and west facing shores. A storm low near Japan is expected to move to the east and will send a long period northwest swell to the islands. This swell (320 degrees) is expected to arrive Thursday, but currently expected to peak below advisory levels.
The current south swell will hold through the remainder of the weekend, and then gradually decline. As trades steadily weaken, wind waves and trade wind swell will follow with diminishing surf expected along east facing shores during the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov