Who could be the next Broncos quarterback for Sean Payton?

Who comes next after Russell Wilson for the Broncos at quarterback?

First things first — it’s unlikely to be a rookie, at least at the start of the 2024 season. This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t draft one. But they’d like the luxury of not having to rush that rookie into action.

Despite the massive dead-money figure facing the Broncos — a number that is already assured to be at least $45 million, and could rise further with more moves in the coming days — the mood at Centura Health Training Center is not about waving a white flag of surrender on the season. Four of the five teams with the highest dead-money hit last year made the playoffs.

Of course, all were in the NFC. The conference where quarterbacks do not include names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. And that doesn’t even mention standouts such as Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, although an injury sapped his effectiveness late last season.

Still, the Broncos will take their shot — with a name that, at least for now, is unlikely to land on marquees like Wilson’s did.

Who could be the next Broncos quarterback in line?

The first possibility is the one on hand.

IF THEY STAND PAT …

JARRETT STIDHAM, DENVER: Sean Payton still possesses a belief in the potential of Stidham, which means that the sixth-year veteran still has the attention of the most important set of eyes in the room. But the clock is ticking. His last three starts — two of which came with the Broncos to close the 2023 season — weren’t impressive.

Stidham as the first-teamer is likely only sellable to the public if there is a first-round quarterback waiting in the wings. Going into the 2024 season with Stidham and without a first-round pick would be a tough sell.

For that matter, Stidham and a bridge-type QB, reclamation project or a fringe backup/starter with some potential would be a difficult product to peddle without having a clearly-established quarterback of the future — which comes with Round 1 status.

BEN DiNUCCI, DENVER: He didn’t play a snap last year, but the Broncos kept him around with a reserve-future contract. He knows the scheme and has enough skills to where Sean Payton wanted to keep going down the path with the James Madison product.

IS THERE UPSIDE HERE?

If you’re looking for the “next Baker Mayfield,” this pool could yield it.

JAKE BROWNING, CINCINNATI: CBS’ Boomer Esiason raised the notion during Super Bowl week. Working in Zac Taylor’s highly-structured offense, Browning hit his marks and flourished, finishing 8th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate among the 32 passers with at least 300 plays last season. Browning is an exclusive-rights free agent, so he’d require a trade. But there is no logical reason why Cincinnati would part ways with a cheap backup option who did exactly what one hopes a reserve can do: keep the team afloat. That is, unless a team made an absurd offer.

SAM DARNOLD, SAN FRANCISCO: He spoke at length during Super Bowl week of how much he learned with the 49ers. The question now is this: Can he apply it going forward? The measurables and tools have always been there, but it’s never all come together. Yet he remains young — still just 26 years of age, and now potentially on to his fourth team.

SAM HOWELL, WASHINGTON: The Commanders are expected to use the No. 2 overall pick on a quarterback, and they likely want that passer to play sooner rather than later. Howell’s promising early-season form — including an outstanding game at Denver’s expense in Week 2 — showed the potential he possesses if he can get better protection and learn that he doesn’t need to be the hero every time he drops back. But Howell is a cost-controlled No. 2 option for Washington with starting experience who won’t rock the boat if he has to be a bridge or handle relief duty. As with Browning, there’s no reason why the Commanders would part with that unless blown away by a trade offer.

TYLER HUNTLEY, BALTIMORE: You might remember him from the comeback he led against the Broncos in December 2022 after Lamar Jackson succumbed to what would be a season-ending injury. Huntley did just enough as a dual-threat quarterback to eke the Ravens into the playoffs, where only the “Fumble in the Jungle” prevented Baltimore from advancing with an upset at Cincinnati. But his metrics aren’t great; his EPA/play is 57th among 83 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays over the last four seasons, and his success rate is 63rd.

MAC JONES, NEW ENGLAND: It would take a trade to acquire the 2021 first-round pick. And the clock is ticking loudly in the final year of his rookie deal, which also limits his cost-controlled window. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 400 plays last year, his EPA/play last year of minus-0.133 was 30th, but his success rate was 23rd, showing a lower variance than other options.

GARDNER MINSHEW II, INDIANAPOLIS: He is Mr. Excitement, no doubt about it. But for all the buzz, he was 34th of 65 QBs (minimum 40 plays) in EPA/play and 38th in success rate. It is fair to wonder if he could stay on schedule enough for Payton’s liking. But he can be dynamic and he was a reason why the Colts stood at the brink of a shock playoff trip last season. (Spotrac assessed market value: one year, $4,967,594)

MASON RUDOLPH, PITTSBURGH: His insertion into the Steelers lineup revived Pittsburgh’s flagging hopes, making possible a return to the playoffs. But there’s a significant gap between his EPA/play — 0.169 last year, good for sixth among 65 QBs with at least 40 plays — and his success rate (46.7 percent, 26th), revealing a high variance.

VETERAN BRIDGES (YOU KNOW WHAT YOU’RE GETTING)

JACOBY BRISSETT, WASHINGTON: At this point in his career, the 31-year-old Brissett knows the drill: Be on standby in case the young quarterback falters or isn’t ready. That he has learned how to handle this role with professionalism and support — while also playing credible football when asked — makes him a potentially ideal fit. Among the 83 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays since 2020, Brissett is 29th in EPA/play and 33rd in success rate. This is solid work. And also better than Russell Wilson in both metrics in that span (35th and 42nd, respectively).

Keep an eye on Brissett. He fits the mold on multiple levels.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO, LAS VEGAS: Even before an injury preceded his trip to the bench, Garoppolo was enduring a rough season. Now he faces a two-game suspension to start the 2024 campaign, atop the fact that injuries continue to accumulate for the former 49ers Super Bowl starter. He can execute the rhythm-and-timing throws Payton requires well, but he should have been able to flourish in Josh McDaniels’ scheme early last season, too.

MARCUS MARIOTA, PHILADELPHIA: At this point, he’s likely a backup. He’s on the wrong side of 30 years of age. Maybe there’s some Geno Smith revival potential here, but that seems unlikely.

RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE: The Titans are moving on to 2023 second-round pick Will Levis. Tannehill remains reasonably capable, and his success rate of 50.9 percent over the last four seasons ranks 10th among 83 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays to their name. But mobility has always been a part of Tannehill’s game … and with his 36th birthday coming in July, it’s fair to wonder if he can be as effective as Father Time chases him down. His 78.5 passer rating last year in eight starts was also his lowest figure since his rookie season. (Spotrac assessed market value: one year, $4,967,594)

TYROD TAYLOR, N.Y. GIANTS: Taylor is about to begin his 14th season. It’s fair to ask whether he brings anything Stidham wouldn’t at this stage. But if part of the role is to offer wise counsel to a first-round pick, Taylor fits the bill well. (Spotrac assessed market value: two years, $6,750,391)

MITCHELL TRUBISKY, EX-PITTSBURGH: The Steelers already parted ways with the former No. 2 overall pick, and he appears to be in decline. A Trubisky-Stidham competition wouldn’t make many hearts in Broncos Country flutter with anticipation.

JAMEIS WINSTON, NEW ORLEANS: It’s Year Nine for the former No. 1 overall pick, so the clock is most definitely ticking. But he knows Payton’s offense better than anyone on the market. If familiarity matters in determining the next Broncos quarterback, Winston has an edge. But his small sample size last year was unimpressive; among the 65 QBs with at least 40 plays, Winston ranked 53rd in EPA/play and 63rd in success rate.

DO THE BRONCOS DARE GO THERE AGAIN?

DREW LOCK, SEATTLE: Among 65 quarterbacks with at least 40 plays last year, Lock ranked 47th in EPA/play — but 66th in success rate. That discrepancy reveals that he remains a relatively high-variance quarterback, and thus, not a likely fit for Sean Payton.

JOE FLACCO, CLEVELAND: The NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year hit a brick wall once he got to the wild-card round against Houston. He actually had a negative EPA/play last year (minus-0.016, placing him 39th among 65 QBs). His success rate — 43.6 percent — was 37th. Were he younger, there’d be hope for improvement. But at this point, Flacco is who he is.

BRETT RYPIEN, SEATTLE: His turn in brief action for the Rams last year was so dreadful that Los Angeles released him shortly thereafter. He finished last in the league in EPA/play and success rate. The Seahawks brought him onto their practice squad. But given that Payton chose not to bring back Rypien last year, the notion of a Ryp return to the team with whom he started three games seems DOA.

DREAM ON …

KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA: Despite his Achilles injury, he should have one more big contract score, and his ability to run the Shanahan-McVay offense to precise perfection makes him an ideal candidate for a slew of teams. It would be no surprise if his price tag reaches $40 million a season.

BAKER MAYFIELD, TAMPA BAY: His price tag is likely too rich for the Broncos as they navigate a cap crunch. They wouldn’t mind finding the next Baker Mayfield. But Mayfield’s expected price should soar north of $30 million. And one wonders if the Bucs’ ability to keep future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans around augurs well for retaining Mayfield, who has made it clear he wants to remain on the West Coast of Florida.