Straw poll shows trouble for Boebert in 4th District but there are still five months to go

FORT LUPTON — Lauren Boebert landed in fifth place in a straw poll conducted at a 4th Congressional District debate this week, a decidedly middle-of-the-pack showing among the nine Republican candidates who showed up for the event.

While the survey of just over 100 Republicans on Thursday at the Fort Lupton Recreation Center is a tiny sliver of the party’s nearly 190,000 registered voters who live in the eastern Colorado district, it did provide an initial peek into the kind of ground game the 37-year-old congresswoman will have to stand up to secure the nomination in a part of the state that doesn’t know her well.

Boebert made headlines last month, and rankled many fellow Republicans, when she announced that she would abandon her largely Western Slope 3rd District seat to run for Congress in the 4th. She was facing a tough battle against a rejuvenated Democratic foe who had nearly beaten her in the last election and was far outraising her in the money game. She also faced a significant challenge from members of her own party in next June’s primary.

Thursday night’s straw poll was the first tangible indication that the welcome mat across the 21 mostly rural counties that make up the district won’t roll out easily for the GOP firebrand.

Boebert admitted as much at the debate, telling the audience that her presence in the race — with her comparatively flush campaign war chest and unrivaled name recognition — in no way added up to a “coronation.”

“I’m here to earn your support, earn your vote,” she said.

Boebert garnered 12 votes in the straw poll, trailing state Rep. Richard Holtorf (17), conservative radio host Deborah Flora (18) and state Rep. Mike Lynch (20). Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg, a former state lawmaker, got the most at 22.

The 4th District gathering was one of two debates hosted by the Republican Women of Weld at the Fort Lupton Recreation Center. The other featured three GOP candidates vying to represent Colorado’s newly formed 8th Congressional District.

Democratic political strategist Andy Boian said Boebert is “an opportunistic wannabe” whose attempt to obtain a new congressional seat is already “finished.”

“What last night proved was that Colorado voters are smart, and regardless of party, they take exception to those who wreak havoc and nonsense,” Boian said Friday. “My feeling about CD4 is it is so wrapped in conservative values and ideology, the only option is the most viable Republican to win, and that’s Sonnenberg.”

Sandra Hagen Solin, a GOP political strategist, agreed that Boebert’s district switch will do her no favors with voters who like and respect “those whom they know and have served in various capacities in the district.”

“She will need to overcome that hurdle with the broader primary voter base but she still benefits from her high name recognition and 10 candidates that will split the vote in a plurality-wins race,” she said.

Latino faceoff in November?

Because of the 4th Congressional District’s overwhelmingly Republican-friendly electorate, whoever wins the June GOP primary will more than likely go on to victory in November. But in the 8th District, a swath of suburbs and farmland stretching from Commerce City to Greeley, the outcome is far less certain.

Three Republican contenders — Weld County Commissioner Scott James, state Rep. Gabe Evans and Air Force vet Joe Andujo — sat for their own debate earlier in the evening Thursday. The 8th Congressional District, formed in 2021 and represented by Democrat Yadira Caraveo for just over a year, is nearly evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Caraveo, a Thornton pediatrician and former state lawmaker, won the seat in 2022 by fewer than 2,000 votes out of more than 200,000 cast over Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer — a victory many election watchers attributed to the presence of a Libertarian candidate in the race.

The men struck a singularly conservative tone on issues ranging from medical treatments for transgender youth to abortion to immigration to impeachment of President Biden.

“Do I support a law that would stop children from altering their bodies? Yes,” James said of surgeries and other medical interventions that some transgender minors have undergone.

On the topic of impeachment, Evans said an investigation into the “Biden crime family” is warranted.

“Where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” he said.

None of the candidates favored a federal abortion ban, despite Colorado’s Democrat-dominated legislature passing one of the most robust abortion access bills in the country in 2022. All three described themselves as strongly pro-life but said the decision about what restrictions to place on the procedure should be made at the local level.

“That’s where it should have been all along,” Andujo said of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision removing Constitutional protections for abortion and returning the issue to the states.

That’s in marked contrast to Caraveo’s outspoken support for abortion rights.

The 8th district candidates all called for the country’s southern border to be closed, following a record surge of migrants crossing into the United States — thousands of whom have arrived in Denver in recent months, costing the city upward of $35 million so far.

“No. 1, we must secure the border — yesterday,” said James, who noted the impact of deadly fentanyl trafficked into the country. “One illegal crossing is one too many.”

Two of the GOP contenders — Andujo and Evans — are Latino, a factor that could prove decisive in a district that is 40% Latino. Caraveo’s victory in 2022 was attributed by some to Hispanics identifying with her and rallying around her, making her Colorado’s first Latina in Congress.

Evans easily won the straw poll Thursday, garnering 69 votes to James’ 33 and Andujo’s 13.

Boian, the Democratic strategist, said this time around Caraveo is “running on a record, experience and intellect” as opposed to when she was making her national debut two years ago.

“The fact she’s a Latina only benefits her,” he said. “While the end of the first term is the best time to try and unseat an incumbent, I don’t see it happening here.”

Carpetbagger claims

In the 4th Congressional District debate, immigration was also a major topic among the nine Republican candidates vying to win the seat. Businessman Peter Yu, who has unsuccessfully run for Congress and the U.S. Senate in Colorado, said his parents “escaped” China in the late 1960s.

“I owe it to this country that I pay this back,” he said. “It is time to put Americans first.”

Former state lawmaker Ted Harvey took one of the more rigid stances against illegal immigration, saying he would support deporting anyone who had entered the country without authorization in the last two years.

“We need to be honest with them and tell them they can’t come here illegally,” he said.

A moment of levity came when the candidates were asked if they had ever been arrested. Six of nine hands went up. Notably, Lynch this week lost his minority leader role in the Colorado House after his 2022 arrest for DUI came to light recently.

Holtorf told the audience he has been arrested twice for fighting — “because someone needed a little attitude adjustment.”

And of course, Boebert was challenged for her district switch at the end of December. Lynch asked her to define the term “carpetbagger,” a query that drew muted gasps from the audience.

Flora asked Boebert how she could make such a move after she had criticized former Democratic state lawmaker Kerry Donovan for announcing a congressional run in the 3rd District when Donovan didn’t live there.

“Running for office is a calling, not a career move,” Boebert said in 2021. “Perhaps Ms. Donovan should focus on where she lives, works and votes instead of trying to increase her political position by pandering to folks she doesn’t even know.”

Boebert countered that Donovan never intended to move into the 3rd District but that she had already established residency in the 4th. Boebert’s new home is in Windsor.

“The crops may be different in Colorado’s 4th District, but the values aren’t,” she said.

Hagen Solin, the Republican strategist, said Boebert’s conservative bona fides may be just enough to land her on top in June.

“You will see the vast majority of primary voters voting for someone other than Congresswoman Boebert,” she said. “Boebert, however, is well positioned to win the plurality vote given her name recognition that extends across the 4th, unlike that of any of the other candidates.”