Stiffs Mailbag: Austin Rivers, Will Barton, and the Denver Nuggets playoff hopes

Welcome into the Denver Stiffs Mailbag! What a enjoyable Sport 4 for Denver Nuggets followers because the Nuggets prevented elimination and prolonged the lifetime of their season for at the least one other couple of days. After the sport, I requested Nuggets followers for questions on Twitter and hope to reply as many as I can right here. A few of them, specifically the commerce and free company questions, are inappropriate whereas Denver continues to be in the midst of a playoff sequence. There shall be time for that, belief me.

For now, let’s get into some playoff questions!

Stephen Curry performed 37 minutes off the bench on Sunday afternoon. Steve Kerr stated that Curry is principally off of his minutes restriction which, yeah, 37 minutes is certainly a robust indication. There’s a really robust probability that Curry begins in Sport 5 and performs near 40 minutes. Up till this level, the Nuggets have began two guards, two forwards, and Jokić. Even when Jordan Poole goes again to the bench and the Warriors don’t go to their dying lineup, there’s a robust case to be made that Denver ought to think about a change.

Austin Rivers was incredible defensively in Video games 3 and 4. He struggled, together with the remainder of the Nuggets, in Video games 1 and a couple of, largely as a result of it seemed like he was making an attempt to do an excessive amount of. Within the video games in Denver, Rivers notably caught to Curry and gave little thought to others whereas matched up except a swap was pressured. That helped Denver out a ton in avoiding advantageous matchups for Curry whereas Rivers was on the ground. Did they nonetheless occur? Sure, however Denver’s total stage of competence was given a pleasant increase.

If the Nuggets are critical about profitable this sequence, Rivers needs to be on the ground as a lot as potential so as to add a layer of perimeter protection. I’d personally begin him over Jeff Inexperienced and stagger Rivers, Will Barton, and/or Aaron Gordon with the second unit.

If we’re simply speaking in regards to the present Nuggets workforce, then Austin Rivers is certainly part of it. He’s a perfect “sort” of participant for Denver as he has defensive versatility to protect on and off-ball in opposition to a wide range of guards and smaller wings. Rivers can credibly match up with all 5 of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Inexperienced on a swap. He’s in all probability finest on Curry or Poole usually, however the peak distinction isn’t as large of a cope with him in opposition to the opposite Warriors since he’s within the air area of shooters and Draymond doesn’t shoot the ball typically sufficient.

To affix Rivers, throw Aaron Gordon and Jeff Inexperienced on the market at energy ahead and heart. I do know it’s not what folks wish to hear, however Jeff Inexperienced could be an incredible small ball heart possibility in a swap all the pieces protection, and he’s higher in opposition to the Dying Lineup at heart than Nikola Jokić is. That’s why he changed Jokić late within the fourth quarter for a possession, a lot to assistance from critics in every single place. JaMychal Inexperienced would even be possibility at heart, however I don’t belief him to keep away from fouling the best way I do with Jeff Inexperienced as an alternative.

Then, let’s have Monte Morris and Will Barton be part of Rivers within the backcourt. Everybody will yell at me for together with Barton, however I simply suppose he’s a extra dependable perimeter protection possibility than Bones Hyland or anybody else on the Nuggets roster proper now. It will be Jamal Murray instead of Barton if he was wholesome, or Davon Reed if he was eligible. Neither of these issues really matter for this train although, so let’s go along with the next:

Morris, Rivers, Barton, Gordon, Jeff.

It’s actually not a frightening defensive lineup in any respect, however it’s what Denver has proper now.

So, I watched again the possessions, and I’ll simply say, everybody’s making a extremely large deal out of three or 4 possessions throughout a 48-minute lengthy basketball recreation. Jokić bought cooked on the perimeter swap however didn’t hand over any threes within the course of. One of many baskets he allowed occurred when Gordon took a cost along with his heels on the cost circle. One other was a stepback lengthy two late within the shot clock, one thing Denver will stay with each single time.

However, if the Nuggets are nervous about it burning them going ahead, they should ship the double workforce sooner. On one of many possessions, Gordon by no means got here to double up prime. On the following, he doubled pretty softly. Jokić and the Nuggets might want to use their size to disrupt any passes out of double groups, which possible means sending Gordon (or Jeff Inexperienced) because the doubler and serving to out with the three guards on the again line.

The opposite possibility is for Jokić to press up on Curry to verify he doesn’t take a 3 and coax Curry right into a drive. A floater or contested layup is a greater possibility for Denver than a Curry iso three in opposition to Jokić in my thoughts, and stopping Curry from seeing as many threes undergo the rim as potential is an effective way to outlive longer within the sequence, even when it means giving up a simple two right here or there.

To make use of a baseball metaphor, Jeff Inexperienced is a traditional innings eater pitcher. He’s going to be comparatively common most video games. Stable in others. Elite groups will blow him up, however unhealthy groups will keep unhealthy. The identical is true for Inexperienced as a starter for Denver. Jokić is the ace (and the nearer on the identical time) whereas different starters have stronger “stuff” to throw on the opposition.

This isn’t sequence for Jeff Inexperienced. He hasn’t had plenty of alternatives to make an impression offensively with the best way the Warriors are defending. They don’t actually double workforce all that usually, and so they’re rather more disciplined on sticking to Denver’s slicing lanes than workforce within the common season have been. Due to that, Inexperienced’s typically within the place the place he’s standing within the nook spacing the ground. He’s tried scoring within the publish on a few events, however it’s been iffy at finest.

On protection, he’s had some good moments. He’s a sensible veteran and sees the ground fairly effectively as a halfcourt defender, that means that when Denver will get to set their protection, he’s going to do his job. Sadly, he’s been unhealthy as a defender in transition, both not getting again in time to contest photographs or operating out to the improper shooter and leaving another person open.

Once more, I’m not against Michael Malone altering his beginning lineup and beginning Austin Rivers as an alternative. It is smart for quite a few causes. Nonetheless, Denver’s began this group for almost all of the common season and entirety of the playoffs. They’ve additionally received three out of 4 first quarters, so it will possibly’t actually be that unhealthy. Simply don’t shut with Jeff instead of Rivers. That was unhealthy in Sport 3.

Y’all actually wanna know? It’s as a result of the season isn’t over but.

Followers have been fast to dismiss gamers they don’t like, particularly Will Barton, within the Jokić period. I used to be a kind of followers. Nonetheless am to be trustworthy (cough Facu cough).

What I’ve realized in masking the Nuggets for six years is that worrying in regards to the offseason and buying and selling out unhealthy choices for brand spanking new ones is admittedly, actually silly. It would occur, positive. It additionally may not. I keep in mind final offseason doing a bunch of labor on NBA Draft and Free Company profiles, writing content material about why such-and-such participant could be match, together with how Denver might get that man. Ultimately, the Nuggets introduced again the vast majority of their workforce, exchanging Paul Millsap and JaVale McGee for Jeff Inexperienced and Bones Hyland (amongst different issues). They re-signed Barton. He was the starter for your complete yr, and he has the contract for subsequent yr.

It’s exhausting to pine away for change. It would occur. It may not. For now, I’m selecting to help the workforce that Denver places on the courtroom and attempt to keep away from my very own private biases from affecting my perspective. What appears clear to me: Will Barton isn’t the participant he was final yr or the yr earlier than. He’s regressed to some extent defensively the place Denver will in all probability think about trades within the offseason, and his offense isn’t as dynamic, nor as singularly useful, because it was in years previous both. He ought to in all probability be thought of a backup going ahead.

However that doesn’t imply he deserves to be thrown to the wolves. Nuggets followers must be higher than that. Barton’s put his physique on the road for his teammates, the group, and town. What did the fan base do with that when Barton was struggling? They booed him. It was unhappy and downright disrespectful again within the 2019 playoffs, and no one has forgotten. Now, Nuggets followers are incensed at Will Barton…for what? Being unable to stay with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Jordan Poole? Taking a 3 in Sport 3 when the Nuggets have been down three factors with a minute to go? Barton is presently third on the workforce in factors and rebounds per recreation and fourth on the workforce in assists and steals. He’s capturing 40.9% from three-point vary. Might he be enjoying higher? Certain. Was it ever reasonable to suppose he might match the Warriors scoring output or actually gradual them down? Probably not. It’s additionally not reasonable for any of the Nuggets guards to do both, not to mention each.

So, why is everybody so incensed?

I personally is not going to be rooting for the downfall of Will Barton. I shall be celebrating his game-clinching three in Sport 4, in addition to another moments he has whereas on the courtroom. Does he make boneheaded choices on protection? Typically, however so do the remainder of the Nuggets too. Barton doesn’t deserve the never-ending criticism he’s obtained, and I hope Nuggets followers will acknowledge that, even when it’s after he’s moved on.

I don’t suppose Malone’s lineups must be criticized too closely on this sequence. The optionality may be very restricted, and the Nuggets aren’t actually constructed to current a ton of choices proper now. Had Murray and Porter been again and PJ Dozier been wholesome, then I may be extra crucial of the particular selections made. Proper now, Denver’s beginning Morris and Inexperienced, and the backup rotation is made up of a rookie level guard (Bones Hyland), a commerce acquisition (Bryn Forbes), two minimal contracts (Austin Rivers and DeMarcus Cousins), and JaMychal Inexperienced.

There are three choices past these bench guys: Facu Campazzo, Zeke Nnaji, and Valtko Čančar; nonetheless, Zeke and Vlatko aren’t nice choices proper now. They haven’t performed main minutes for a very long time and simply made their wholesome returns in Sport 82 of the season. In case your “inventive lineups” contain these guys, then they’re in all probability improper.

So, what we’re actually asking about right here is, “can we make the lineups extra inventive than all the starters and all the bench?” Effectively, the beginning unit has a plus-minus of -24 in 71 minutes. 4 different lineups have performed at the least 10 whole minutes within the sequence, and just one is constructive: Bones, Rivers, Barton, J-Myke, and Cousins.

I’m simply probably not positive what constitutes “inventive” on this case. Some appear to need a twin towers look with Jokić and Cousins. I’m right here to say that’s lunacy. Maybe extra Bones with the starters usually might give a robust offensive punch. Possibly staggering Gordon with the second unit a bit extra and eradicating the J-Myke minutes? Aside from that, I’m probably not positive how you can be extra inventive than that with this group. It’s not a gaggle that’s actually ripe for experimentation. They do what they do effectively and don’t do different issues in the event that they may help it.

Championship. Gotta be higher defending the perimeter, however Jokić and Gordon are keepers, as is Bones Hyland. Add in Murray and Porter and Denver’s principally set on the offensive finish for a playoff run. After that, they simply must fill within the gaps defensively with gamers that may arrange Jokić, Murray, Porter, and now Bones offensively.

It is going to be powerful. Don’t let anybody let you know in another way. Discovering legitimately impactful defenders is hard, and all people desires one, two or six of them. Denver might want to commit sources to discovering a defensive stopper or two, but when they DO discover what they’re on the lookout for, they’re in enterprise.