Nuggets are betting on Christian Braun to replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Can he?

It might’ve actually been fitting that the first hours of NBA free agency were unexpectedly quiet for the Nuggets. Too quiet.

There will be roster moves in Denver. That’s a certainty. Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan are each likely to return on one-year deals, league sources told The Denver Post, and that still leaves two roster spots unoccupied. The Nuggets will be able to use the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception to fill one of those. They are staying active in the trade market as well, even kicking the tires on Russell Westbrook.

But yes, it’s fitting that no concrete roster additions occurred Sunday between the start of free agent negotiations (4 p.m. MT) and the print deadlines of the local newspaper. While the Nuggets’ front office was busy, no doubt, the rest of Denver was stuck with nothing to reflect on except a loss.

What does the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Orlando, reported first by USA TODAY’s Jeff Zillgitt, for three years and $66 million mean?

First off, it’s not as simple as a downright indictment of ownership’s willingness to spend, nor does it set a precedent that Denver will never be a second-apron team under any circumstance during the life of this CBA. The Nuggets, according to The Athletic, showed serious interest in trading for Paul George before the draft, for example.

A league source confirmed to The Post that Denver was briefly in talks with the Clippers about George, though it’s questionable how far along those conversations got. An extend-and-trade would have required Michael Porter Jr., Zeke Nnaji and draft picks. What’s the point of that information? Interest in a player of George’s pedigree and salary, especially as an outsider rather than as the team drafting and developing that player, indicates a pretty clear openness to spending.

Choosing whether to wade into the second-apron morass is about more than whether an owner is too cheap to pay the luxury tax bill. It’s a question of whether certain moves, certain contracts, are worth sacrificing roster flexibility. If the Nuggets went into the second apron to keep Caldwell-Pope, they would not have been able to even entertain a trade like that one. So far, the Nuggets have given no reason to believe they won’t exceed the second apron if they view it to be worth the competitive risks. General manager Calvin Booth said as much after the season ended.

“I think for me personally, it’s win a championship, one. Two, we have to look at the overall financial picture. And three, second apron,” he said then when asked about Caldwell-Pope. “And I know the second apron is daunting, and there’s all kinds of restrictions, but I don’t think that’s first on our priority list.”

The overall financial picture includes more than just this free agency cycle. It includes a future when Denver could be trying to juggle increased salaries for Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon with extensions for Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. What if that duo is on the rise two offseasons from now, and Caldwell-Pope is starting to decline? Being on the hook for $22 million to a 33-year-old Caldwell-Pope could come back to bite. Only time can tell.

Anyway, in a more immediate sense: The loss of Caldwell-Pope despite possessing his full Bird rights reads as a full-hearted bet on Braun, whose most recent impression was out-defending KCP against Minnesota in the playoffs.

They’re very different players. (Make no mistake: As of July 2024, Caldwell-Pope is a better one.) Defensively, Braun might not be quite as tenacious a screen navigator as KCP, but he’s much bigger for a two-guard. He’s a formidable point-of-attack and help defender already at age 23, and he can hold his own in the post against other physically overpowering guards and forwards, from LeBron James to Anthony Edwards to Luka Doncic. Considering that Braun is only two years into his NBA career, it’s reasonable to believe he’s on his way to being regarded as an elite wing defender in the same light as Caldwell-Pope.

The offensive fit is the biggest uncertainty. Braun plays at a fast, downhill pace with the ball — athletic and fearless at its best, rushed and messy at its worst — that doesn’t theoretically mesh with the methodical, cerebral identity of Denver’s starting lineup. However, Nikola Jokic has always rewarded good cutters, and Braun does have a good feel for when to pounce on open space or dive to the rim. If anyone can optimize his off-ball effectiveness, it’s this lineup.

Of course, shooting is an inevitable aspect of good off-ball offense as well. Only Braun can optimize that for himself. Nuggets coach Michael Malone has labeled Braun’s 3-point percentage as a defining factor in his potential as a starter.

Braun is more than fine above the break — 42.9% last season to Caldwell-Pope’s 39.6%. But KCP shot 11% better in the corners on way higher volume. That’s an area where Braun needs to keep developing his shot if the Nuggets want effective floor-spacing with him planted there. It could also benefit him to diversify his midrange game. He barely attempted any shots outside the paint but inside the arc last season, and he only made 32% of his shots in the midrange. Jokic is one of the best dribble handoff centers in the NBA, and he got efficient value out of Caldwell-Pope by turning DHOs into 15-foot pull-up jumpers.

Only 10 players in the NBA attempted more shots out of DHOs and made them at a higher rate than Caldwell-Pope (43.2% on 88 attempts). He was even more effective than Porter within that play-type, according to the NBA’s data. As of now, swapping in Braun means subtracting that skillset.

But even if Braun doesn’t develop that, he makes up for the subtraction with the addition of his off-the-dribble upside. He’s not a great ball-handler, but he has the strength and gumption to drive into traffic and finish through contact, unlike Caldwell-Pope. If Braun can refine that and eliminate the inconsistency, it would add a new layer to a starting lineup that lacks burst off the dribble. Opponents will dare Braun to attack them when the ball finds him within the flow of Denver’s offense. He’ll be thrown into the fire quickly.

Ultimately, Braun has displayed the two-way athleticism and early signs of shooting prowess to prove to Denver’s front office that he’s worth a vote of confidence. He had a 15.4 net rating last season when he shared the floor with Jokic, and if Caldwell-Pope’s minutes are to translate even somewhat directly to Braun next season, it means the KU alum is about to be on the court with Jokic more than any other Nugget.

But until further notice, Sunday was the end of a miniature era: the day the Nuggets had to forfeit their claim to the title of Best Starting Five in the NBA.

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