The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets meet Monday for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Denver cruised to a 108-95 win in Game 4 on Friday to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. For the Nuggets it was the role players that really stepped when they were needed to help secure that win as Denver won both games in Miami.
Nuggets F Aaron Gordon posted a career playoff high 27 points on 11-of-15 shooting, but he wasn’t the only shining star for Denver. G Bruce Brown scored 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting off the bench. C Nikola Jokic sat in foul trouble and G Jamal Murray struggled to find his shot.
The duo of Murray and Jokic did not play as well as expected, but they did enough to secure a win. Murray finished with 15 points (5-of-17) and 12 assists while Jokic recorded a 23-point 12-rebound double-double with 5 fouls that limited his minutes slightly.
The story for Miami throughout the playoffs had been the success of their bench and role players, but in Game 4 they failed to show up yet again. G Max Strus and G Gabe Vincent combined for 2 points on 1-for-10 shooting from the floor and 0-7 on 3s, forcing coach Erik Spoelstra to limit their minutes.
The Denver defense held Miami to under 100 points for the 3rd time this series, including the last 2 games. F Jimmy Butler scored 25 pts on 9-of-17 shooting and C Bam Adebayo scored 20 pts on 8-of-19 shooting.
Heat at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Nuggets -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-105) | Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Nuggets key injuries
Heat
Nuggets
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 104, Heat 93
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nuggets should be able to close out the series on their home court, in which case this line is not worth the juice and the spread and O/U are both safer bets. If you feel strongly about the Heat extending the series then you can wager a small bet to triple up on the Heat (+300).
Against the spread
BET NUGGETS -8.5 (-115).
The Nuggets’ defense has proven to be able to stop not only the role players for Miami, but cause problems for the Heat stars as well. All 3 of Miami’s losses in this series are by double digits, and I expect this to be more of the same.
The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss and the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. The Nuggets are also 28-10 ATS in the last 38 meetings overall and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver,
Over/Under
BET UNDER 208.5 (-110).
With the Nuggets (106.0) and Heat (107.4) ranking 5th and 6th in PPG allowed during the playoffs and with how low-scoring 3 of the last 4 games have been this is a very safe bet.
For Miami the Under is 7-1 in their last 8 overall and 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
For Denver the Under is 4-1 in their last 5 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Under is also 3-1 in the 4 games during this NBA Finals series.
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