Summer vacation is almost over, sunsets and barbecues replaced by August angst. Does Disneyland offer a FastPass for NFL quarterbacks?
Now that the Broncos are auditioning their 14th starter since Peyton Manning retired, I feel compelled to write a self-help column for coach Sean Payton. The aim is to be insightful, thoughtful and analytical in explaining the development of a rookie into an impact player.
The working headline: Please Bo Nix Don’t Stink.
Contrary to those who think Denver is a playoff contender, the underlying theme of Broncos training camp is that it would be a splendid idea to make this gamble work. Payton staked his reputation on the selection of Nix.
Beginning Sunday in Indianapolis, we will begin to see why. It might be one throw on the run or a scramble for a first down, but the preseason opener for Nix must deliver morsels of success.
It is not about the final statistics, since my guess based on watching nearly two weeks of practices is that they will be pedestrian. It is about progress.
That’s all we want to see. Remember, Broncos Country has traveled down this road over the past eight years — and each time it ended like the final scene in “Thelma and Louise.” Once upon a time, Mark Sanchez hinted that he might be the guy vs. the Bears in the 2016 preseason opener, but his performance was stained by an interception. Coach Gary Kubiak made the connection long before most of us, his praise sandwiched with caution. “He just had the one mistake with the football that we are continuing to try and correct and he knows that.” Soon after, Sanchez started throwing picks to Lorenzo Doss in practice like he was feeding him out of a Pez dispenser. Trevor Siemian won the job.
Of course, there are lessons to be learned from Siemian and this competition. Siemian was not Nix. He was a seventh-round pick. His story required no embellishment. He was set to work in real estate after an underwhelming career at Northwestern. But Kubiak saw something in him. And five months later he was the starter for the defending Super Bowl champions.
Siemian’s path to the job remains instructive as it relates to Nix. Bo knows we don’t expect him to be perfect. The NFL is a difficult transition because it is an entirely different game. The hash marks are more than twice as wide in college (40 feet to 18 feet, six inches). As such, college football allows receivers to line up on the opposite sideline from the spot of the ball, creating enough space for NASA to navigate as quarterbacks find wide-open receivers.
Space in college is a completion. Space in the NFL is a trap.
Undoubtedly, Payton will set up Nix to gain confidence when he enters the game late in the first quarter or the early second. Expect some inside run plays followed by a swing pass to a running back, then maybe a quick one-read slant. Payton understands the value of getting a quarterback into rhythm. This can be accomplished even when the plays don’t always counter the defense in the preseason.
But much of what needs to be obvious with Nix won’t show up in the final box score. Part of the reason I, along with many others, are pushing for him to start is because of his FBS-record 61 games of college experience. He lived a layered life as Auburn’s savior to benched star to reclaimed glory at Oregon. He has dealt with unique adversity for a first-round quarterback.
And this shapes what I want to see Sunday. A player who seems unaffected by the expectations. Someone who seems unflappable as he runs a smooth operation. Nix has been described as a bit robotic, and this can be a compliment when it comes to calling plays in the huddle — this was an issue not just for Paxton Lynch, but Russell Wilson. Knowing the plays and what he is saying should allow him to walk to the line of scrimmage with a clear head, freeing him to begin his education on reading defenses.
The Colts do not figure to employ exotic blitz packages, but there will be new looks for Nix after going against his own defense for months. This is a huge part of his learning curve: The ability to know what he sees and audible into the right plays, including those on the ground.
There will be mistakes. But will Nix be oblivious, and respond with confidence? We have seen shades of this. After he threw his first training camp interception to Levi Wallace, he answered with three red zone touchdown passes.
That showed the type of mental resolve necessary. Listen, we all know when it doesn’t seem right, like when Lynch, the Broncos’ last first-round quarterback, looked like a fish on a bicycle under center and struggled with the concept of down-and-distance. But in fairness to Lynch, no effort was made to fit the offense around him. It was the other way around, and he did not have the skill set to adapt.
With Payton and Nix, there is 100 percent motivation to make this work. And the sooner, the better. Payton has already narrowed the quarterback derby to Jarrett Stidham, Sunday’s starter, and Nix, who will start next Sunday at home against the Packers. Zach Wilson, a fun flier, became an insurance policy as soon as Denver was able to land Nix in the draft.
The next two weeks are going to be exciting and challenging. The Broncos, rallying around the young-and-hungry motto, must not only get through them but exit with a quarterback.
Stidham is the default. If Nix looks overwhelmed, if his wires cross, then Payton can start the veteran on Sept. 8.
But, honestly, that would be a marriage of buzz to kill. The pieces are in place. Payton has the resume of an offensive genius. Nix has uncommon experience.
Sunday, the journey begins. It is time to see positive steps toward the rookie’s eventual place in the starting lineup.
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