In a down year for the middle of the AFC, the Denver Broncos sit firmly in the No. 7 playoff seed with complete control of their destiny. With games remaining against the squad’s most likely combatants for the final AFC playoff seeds against the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cincinnati Bengals, Denver will need to keep stacking victories while also avoiding key losses that could result in unfortunate tiebreakers come the end of the season.

Sitting at 5-5, are the Broncos contenders or pretenders when it comes to the AFC Playoff Picture? According to ESPN’s models, the Broncos have a next to zero chance of winning the division, now five games behind the Kansas City Chiefs at 0.1%.

However, the Broncos do have a strong opportunity to make the playoffs as ESPN has them at a 34.4% chance. A victory on the road at Kansas City certainly would have been nice to build a bit of a buffer, but Denver is very much in the thick of things.

ESPN’s Seth Walder believes the Broncos are firm contenders for the final Wildcard spot in the AFC. Praising the defense and an improving offense, the Broncos are a surprising squad compared to preseason expectations at this point in the season. Juxtaposed with the oddsmakers setting a 5.5-win over/under for the season, this team is ahead of schedule.

“An elite defense led by defensive end Zach Allen and cornerback Pat Surtain II — along with improving play from rookie quarterback Bo Nix — has the Broncos in surprising contention. Granted, their past four wins came against teams with three wins or fewer, and a defense-first approach is less reliable, so the odds are against them. But the Broncos have legitimate playoff hopes right now, which is already an upset,” Walder wrote.

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It is surprising to hear Walder state that a defense-first approach is less reliable given the historical anecdote of “defense wins championships.” An offense is obviously more stable year-to-year, given the unit’s linkage to quarterback play, but over a singular season, it might be worth digging further into what has more volatility in offense versus defense.

What Walder did not mention is that while Denver is a defensive first team, its offensive line is playing like one of the best units in football. Defense plus good offensive line play? That’s a winning formula at any level of football.

ESPN‘s long-time beat reporter Jeff Legwold also adds that the Broncos’ second-half goal this season should be closing out the campaign with at least six home wins.

“The Broncos are 2-2 this season at home and were 5-4 in 2023, a far cry from Mike Shanahan’s four 8-0 home campaigns during his 14 seasons as head coach or the 7-1 or better home record of three of Peyton Manning’s four teams,” Legwold wrote.

Compiling six home wins would mean the Broncos must defeat the Atlanta Falcons, the Cleveland Browns, the Colts, and the Chiefs to close the season. Given the Broncos have their best chance at making the postseason since 2015, one should expect a true home-field advantage to return to Denver for the final stretch of the 2024 season with a fired-up fanbase watching meaningful football down the stretch once again.

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Now that the election is over, the Colorado housing market seems primed for buyers this winter. And with two interest rate cuts since September, that would seem to make sense.

But traditional 30-year mortgage rates was 7.05% on Friday, up from a week ago’s 6.98% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. And even though more houses were for sale — and sold — last month, house hunters may continue to sit out as median sales prices sit at more than a half-million dollars. Colorado’s median sales price inched up 2.3% to $583,000 while the Denver metro stayed put, up just $10 — yes, $10! — to $625,000 from a year ago.

“Affordability is a challenge and is at its highest level of concern in the past couple of decades,” said Cooper Thayer, a Denver-area Realtor at The Thayer Group. “One of my specific concerns is the condo market, which has really struggled.”

Higher condo fees have discouraged buyers looking for something more affordable than a single family house. In Denver, median condo sale prices dropped 6.5% to $402,000 while the number of sales fell 12.9%. Statewide, condo prices fell 4.5% and sales dropped 5.1%.

But what doesn’t show up in Denver County’s numbers could be a good sign for house hunters who’ve been priced out. The county had a 37.6% increase in home sales in October and 55% of the closed transactions had some sort of seller concession, Thayer said. The average was $8,760, which can be anything from a rate buydown or the seller covering closing costs or the cost to fix items after an inspection. Concessions don’t always affect the sale price and don’t show up in the monthly data.

“Being that half of the transactions had a concession,” Thayer said, “when you reframe how you’re thinking about pricing and put it into a net number, it may actually be a little bit lower than the prices that are being reported.”

In the Denver metro area, which includes adjacent counties, sellers were also getting just 98.5% of their asking price. Back in the pandemic heyday, as buyers competed for houses and outbid one another, the average sale price was 105.5% above the asking price in May 2021, according to data from the Colorado Association of Realtors. Statewide, houses were selling for 98.3% of the asking price.

Other agents reported similar trends pointing to a buyer’s market, the latest Colorado Association of Realtors report said. Sellers were negotiating “and dropping their prices to get their places sold before the snow flies,” according to Dana Cottrell, a Realtor in Summit County. Inventory for Summit, Park and Lake counties was up 30% while median prices were down 13%. But affordability is relative in Cottrell’s area — the median sales price in Summit and Park counties was more than $1 million.

Jay Gupta, a Colorado Springs Realtor, noted that 44.2% of active homes for sale reduced the price in El Paso County last month, while Teller County saw 30.7% cut prices.

“Buyers currently have excellent opportunities due to high inventory levels, motivated sellers, and dropping interest rates,” Gupta said in a news release.

But affordability is still one of the biggest issues in the area, said Patrick Muldoon, head of Muldoon Associates in Colorado Springs. In El Paso County, the median sales price increased 2.1% in a year to $475,000, while condo and townhouse prices fell 1.9% to $330,000.

“On my side, it is crickets. Part of it may be the mental side of the election. But I believe it is still affordability and the economy. Buyers have checked out,” Muldoon said in an email, adding that showings have slowed as a result. “I don’t think I have ever seen stagnation in the housing market like this. Nothing happening.”

There was a large jump in homes sold last month compared with a year ago. There are two reasons for that, Thayer said. October 2023 was brutal. The number of homes sold in the Denver metro area fell 17.4% from a year earlier to 2,784 sales. So the 22.1% uptick last month to 3,467 sales gets activity closer to where it was two years ago.

Some pre-approved buyers jumped in last month as mortgage rates hit a low-to-mid 6%. Some lenders offer to “float” the rate for 30 days so the buyer can lock in a rate within the month if rates should drop.

“What happened in that period was we had some houses under contract, and lenders were floating the rate, and then all of a sudden it went down for a week, and everybody locked in,” Thayer said. “Those weekly movements can have some impact on the market (but) don’t really affect the overall trend.”

➔ Around the state: Here’s what Realtors around Colorado are saying about October activity. >> Read CAR blog post

Sun economy stories you may have missed

➔ US Forest Service won’t hire seasonal workers next year, will rely on Colorado volunteer groups to “fill gaps” With an unclear budget for 2025, the Forest Service is not planning to hire seasonal workers next year and warns volunteer groups not to expect big projects >> Read story

➔ The second Trump presidency could mean big changes for health insurance in Colorado. Repealing or substantially rewriting the Affordable Care Act could upend a number of policies in the state, while changes to Medicaid could also be far-reaching >> Read story

➔ A century-old practice allows people to use more than their normal share of Colorado River water. Researchers say it should stop. >> Read story

➔ Denver Broncos on verge of giving fans faster internet at Mile High stadium. Who uses mobile phones at football games? More Broncos fans than ever, as Empower Field at Mile High upgrades wireless technology. >> Read story

➔ UCHealth agrees to $23 million settlement with the feds over false billing accusations. The Colorado U.S. Attorney’s Office alleged that the health system overbilled for some emergency care. UCHealth denies the claims. >> Read story

➔ Denver heat pump incentive targets multifamily, commercial buildings for more efficient heating and cooling. Stores, offices and apartment buildings are in line for $7.5 million in help to cut monthly energy bills by installing new systems >> Read story

Other working bits

➔ Pueblo cannabis company to pay state $225,000 for false claims and lying. The Bee’s Knees CBDs and its owner Joseph Leyba have settled with the Colorado Attorney General’s Office after an investigation found that the Pueblo cannabis company called some of its products “organic” that weren’t, didn’t verify shoppers’ ages online and lied about supporting conservation groups. Bee’s Knees must pay $225,000 in civil penalties that could more than double if the company fails to completely comply. >> View settlement

➔ Got towed? More than 5,000 consumers are getting checks in the mail after being identified as victims of an illegal fee collection by Wyatts Towing, which was acquired this week. The state Attorney General’s Office announced the $1 million settlement late last year and announced this month that the checks are now on the way. >> The FAQ

➔ Larger loans for underserved smaller businesses now available. As a recipient of a $60 million New Markets Tax Credit award from the U.S. Department of Treasury, the Colorado Enterprise Fund will be able to finance larger projects than its usual capacity of $10,000 to $1 million. CEF is a community development financial institution, which manages market-rate loans backed by federal and philanthropic grants or investors. The loans serve lower-income or underserved communities and small businesses that may not qualify for a traditional bank loan. A recent $7 million donation for CEF came from philanthropist MacKenzie Scott. >> Details, inquire

➔ Fort Lupton college gets funding to train 38 truck drivers. Two programs at Aims Community College in Fort Lupton provide training to new truck drivers who need a commercial driver’s license to land decent jobs. A $137,560 grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation will cover driver safety training for 38 students to get their CDL. A second program is aimed at non-native English speakers looking for an opportunity as a professional truck driver. >> Apply

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The Nuggets’ five-game win streak didn’t survive with coach Michael Malone and three-time Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic not in New Orleans.

Here are three takeaways from Denver’s 101-94 loss in their first NBA Cup game.

1. Without Jokic, the Nuggets needed complete games from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, but neither player delivered. Porter started hot, scoring 20 points on 12 shots in the first half, but finished with 24 points on 18 attempts. The Pelicans effectively made Jamal Murray a distributor for most of the night. Murray had just five points on seven shots at halftime. He found a rhythm late and ended the game with 16 points on as many shots to go with eight assists and six rebounds. A little more consistency from either one could have easily flipped the game in Denver’s favor.

2. Dario Saric’s return to the rotation featured a fair share of positives and negatives. He made three of his four shots inside the arc, but made just one of five attempts from deep to finish with nine points. He grabbed a team-high eight rebounds and dished out five assists, but also committed four turnovers. His last turnover was the most crucial, as it turned what should’ve been a dunk for Christian Braun into a Javonte Green 3 that put the Pelicans up six with just under five minutes to play. That five-point swing helped make the clutch time more comfortable for New Orleans.

3. Missing Jokic and Aaron Gordon meant more opportunities for players off the bench, but none of the Nuggets’ reserves took advantage. Zeke Nnaji got the back-up center minutes in the first half, but Adelman went with Vlatko Cancar in the second half after the Nuggets lost Nnaji’s 5 minutes and 43 seconds of playing time by 15 points. Denver’s reserves finished 4 of 20 from the field. Julian Strawther and Russell Westbrook led the bench with five points apiece, but Strawther needed six shots to get there, while Westbrook needed eight.

PELICANS 101, NUGGETS 94

What happened: New Orleans closed the first quarter on a 21-4 run to lead by 10 at the start of the second and took a 59-54 advantage at halftime. The Pelicans added a point to the lead in the third quarter and held on to drop Denver to 7-4 on the season.

What went right: Christian Braun was active on defense, and that turned into offensive production. The third-year shooting guard recorded a career-high five steals, and the transition opportunities off those plays helped him finish with 15 points on 12 shots. He added four rebounds and four assists to continue his strong start to the season.

What went wrong: The Pelicans weren’t worried about the roller without Jokic and doubled Jamal Murray frequently, but Denver’s shooters weren’t able to punish that strategy. The Nuggets started the second half 1 of 14 from 3-point range. Denver finished 10 for 37 (27%) from deep.

Highlight of the night: On a night Jamal Murray’s shot wasn’t falling early, he found other ways to make an impact. In the third quarter, Murray snuck up on Trey Murphy III and poked the ball free. After a scramble, Murray secured possession and ran the break, which finished with an alley-oop feed to Michael Porter Jr. for a dunk.

Up next: The Nuggets play the first of two games against the Grizzlies in Memphis on Sunday.