The first snow event in a series of storms set to hit Colorado’s high country starts today, with snow entering the state from the northwest.
Two other snow events on Sunday and Wednesday will replenish the slopes, but neither is likely to boost state snowpack in the weekend leading up to Christmas.
Soft and light powder snow for skiing and riding will be there, just not very deep.
Recap:
The sun was mostly out both Wednesday and Thursday across Colorado and temperatures rebounded from Tuesday’s cold day-time highs in the single digits.
The National Weather Service in Boulder recorded a high of 23 on Wednesday and 34 on Thursday at Copper Mountain; the Weather Service office in Grand Junction recorded a high of 32 on Wednesday and 39 on Thursday in Aspen.
Forecast:
On Friday, snow will move into the state’s northwestern mountains on a pseudo-disorganized low pressure system passing across Colorado. A few bands of snow showers will lay down snow mostly north of Interstate 70, with even lighter accumulations further south.
An ECMWF 500 mb Height (dam), Relative Vorticity forecast map loop of Colorado from 5 a.m., Thursday, Dec. 12, to 5 a.m., Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024.
Snowfall totals forecast from the NWS Blends of Models and the ECMWF models for the northern mountains range between 1-4 inches; in the central mountains, between 1-2 inches; and in the southern mountains, between a trace-1 inch. The Park Range, including Steamboat, could get lucky however, as the NWS Blend of Models forecasts up to 8 inches at upper elevations.
Overall, Saturday is not looking like much of a powder day, but more like dust on crust.
The NWS Blend of Models model:
A NWS Blend of Models Total snowfall, Model ratio (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 8 a.m., Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024.
The ECMWF model:
An ECMWF Total snowfall 10:1 (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 8 a.m., Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024.
On Saturday, the sun will come back out and highs will climb into the upper 20s around resort summits, and be in the mid 30s at area bases.
On Saturday night into Sunday morning, the second storm, cutting off from another low pressure pressing into the Pacific Northwest, is showing a similar path across Colorado through Monday morning.
An ECMWF 500 mb Height (dam), Relative Vorticity forecast map loop of Colorado from 5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 15, to 11 a.m., Monday, Dec. 16, 2024.
Forecasted snow accumulations for the northern mountains range, between 2-3 inches; in the central mountains, 1-2 inches; and in the southern mountains, maybe a trace-0.5 inch in the northern San Juan Mountains.
Once again, the NWS Blend of Models forecasts the Park Range to get approximately 4-8 inches from storm two, with 3-6 inches expected for the central mountains and 1-3 inches expected for the the southern mountains (San Juan Mountains mostly).
The NWS Blend of Models model:
A NWS Blend of Models Total snowfall, Model ratio (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 11 a.m., Monday, Dec. 16, 2024.
The ECMWF model:
An ECMWF Total snowfall 10:1 (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 11 a.m., Monday, Dec. 16, 2024.
Overall, Monday is trending toward being a light powder day, with partly sunny skies for the northern and western mountains north of I-70.
Early Tuesday morning into early Wednesday morning, snow storm No.3 arrives, and once again the northern and west-central mountains are forecast to receive the majority of snowfall from this storm.
Wednesday morning is trending toward another light powder day up north, however, some central ski areas like Monarch, Aspen/Snowmass and Sunlight could finally have a powder day since this storm is hitting the state mid-week.
Forecasted totals of between 2-4 inches are expected for the northern and central mountains; 1-3 inches in the southern mountains can be expected.
The NWS Blend of Models model:
A NWS Blend of Models Total snowfall, Model ratio (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 11 a.m., Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.
The ECMWF model:
An ECMWF Total snowfall 10:1 (in) forecast model map of Colorado for snow accumulations by 8 a.m., Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.
When all is said an done, 8 to 10 to 14 inches of snow is optimistically accurate with these three storms.
Long range:
After the three-storm series concludes, expect dry weather up through the first day of winter, which is Saturday, Dec. 21. Around Monday, Dec. 23, snow and wintry conditions might materialize, but these dates are still 10-11 days out and details will change over that time period.
A white Christmas with fresh snow is looking to be a no go currently. Fingers crossed.
Today’s 24-hour snow totals from Colorado resorts:
Arapahoe Basin – 0″
Aspen Highlands – Opens Dec. 14
Aspen Mountain – 0″
Beaver Creek – 0″
Breckenridge – 0″
Buttermilk – Opens Dec. 14
Cooper – 0″
Copper Mountain – 0″
Crested Butte – 0″
Echo Mountain – Opens in December
Eldora Mountain – 0″
Granby Ranch – 0″
Hesperus – Closed for the season
Howelsen Hill – 0″
Kendall Mountain – Opens Dec. 20
Keystone – 0″
Loveland – 0″
Monarch – 0″
Powderhorn – 0″
Purgatory – 0″
Silverton – Opens Dec. 28
Snowmass – 0″
Steamboat – 0″
Sunlight – 0″
Telluride – 0″
Vail – 0″
Winter Park – 0″
Wolf Creek – 0″
