Researchers still recommend a conservative approach to river management.
(John Burcham | The New York Times) The Colorado River flows through the Grand Canyon in 2020. A new study predicts that the river’s flows will increase between 2026 and 2050.
| May 9, 2024, 11:53 a.m.
This article is published through the Colorado River Collaborative, a solutions journalism initiative supported by the Janet Quinney Lawson Institute for Land, Water, and Air at Utah State University.
A new study found that the Colorado River may experience a rebound after two decades of decreased flows due to drought and global warming.
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“Importantly, we find climate change will likely increase precipitation in the Colorado headwaters,” Professor Martin Hoerling, the study’s lead author, wrote to The Salt Lake Tribune in an email. “This will compensate some if not most of the depleting effects of further warming.”
Recently published in the Journal of Climate, the study by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science used data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Researchers analyzed precipitation, temperature and flows at Lees Ferry, a point 15 miles downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in northern Arizona. Lees Ferry serves as the dividing line between the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin.
Winter snows melting off mountains in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming and into the river each year produce about 85% of the river’s flow.
The study’s climate projections forecast that there is a 70% chance that climate change will lead to increased precipitation in the Upper Basin between 2026 and 2050. That precipitation increase could boost the river’s flows by 5% to 7%.
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The Colorado River’s flows have decreased by 20% since the turn of the century.
But researchers caution that these forecasts aren’t a bailout for the beleaguered river. Climate change will lead to a higher variability in precipitation, meaning that “extremely high and low flows are more likely” on the Colorado River between 2026 and 2050, according to the study.
“When there is that much uncertainty involved in something, the smartest management approach is to be conservative,” said Brian Richter, who serves as the president of Sustainable Waters, an organization focused on water education.
Richter, who was not involved in the University of Coloraro study, recently authored a different study about where the Colorado River water goes from its headwaters to its dry delta in Mexico.
“That there might be better precipitation is good to know,” he said, “but it’s not cause to abandon the reality that we need to aggressively reduce our level of consumption.”
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Water managers across the West are currently working to negotiate management of the Colorado River and its reservoirs after 2026, when current operational guidelines from 2007 expire. The Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees water projects across the country, aims to complete a draft environmental impact statement for post-2026 operations by the end of this year.
Hoerling, too, pointed to the need for more responsible river use as water managers hash out future river guidelines: “The crisis, though triggered at this time by nature, exposed a structural problem of how water is used, especially in the Lower basin of the Colorado River.”
Arizona, California and Nevada — the Lower Colorado River Basin states, which draw their water from reservoirs — have committed to water cuts. The Upper Basin states argue that they shouldn’t have to cut their water use because they experience natural water cuts due to the river’s decreasing flows and evaporative losses.
Hoerling wrote that, given a warming planet and highly variable river conditions responsible management necessitates more research on how low the Colorado River’s flows could be in the future.
Colorado’s mountains have likely already hit peak snowpack, and record-high heat forecast for the coming days will kick off widespread melting even at high elevations — weeks ahead of normal.
A heat dome that’s expected to hover over the state and the Mountain West through Saturday is forecast to bring temperatures into the 80s at lower elevations and into the 50s and 60s at higher elevations. The heat this week follows the warmest winter recorded in Colorado since records began in 1895.
“It’s possible that many areas of the state at high elevations have already seen peak snowpack,” Peter Goble, the assistant state climatologist, told the Colorado Water Conservation Board’s Water Conditions Monitoring Committee on Tuesday.
The temperatures expected from the heat dome will be high enough to spur melting, said Brian Domonkos, a hydrologist with the Colorado office of the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service. Statewide, snowpack depth typically peaks around April 8.
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The National Weather Service forecast for a point near Loveland Pass — at an elevation of 11,020 feet — shows overnight lows are not expected to drop below freezing until Sunday night. Daytime highs could hit 60 degrees.
A graph from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows Colorado’s statewide snowpack level (darkest line) compared to records that date back to 1986. (Courtesy of U.S. Department of Agriculture)
Wolf Creek Pass, located at nearly 11,000 feet in southern Colorado, is also not forecast to reach freezing temperatures overnight this week.
The record heat is expected to shrink an already anemic snowpack. Statewide snowpack sat at 59% of the median for this time of year on Wednesday, the lowest recorded since records began in 1986. Some river basins in southern Colorado — including the Rio Grande, the San Juan, the Animas and the Arkansas — had less than half of normal snowpack on Wednesday.
“We have very little winter left,” Domonkos said. “There’s essentially no chance for us to get back to normal snowpack.”
Colorado’s mountains and streams will begin to see increased water flows from the melting this week, according to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
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Flows in the Yampa River in Steamboat Springs will likely more than double in the next seven days, from 124 cubic feet per second on Wednesday to more than 400 cfs late next week. The Animas River in Durango could hop from winter flows hovering around 300 cfs to more than 1,000 cfs by the end of next week.
Those flows are still far lower than peak runoff flows that will come later this spring and summer. But expected extended warm temperatures, paired with the “extremely grim” snowpack, mean those peak flows will also be lower than normal, said Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, at a briefing Wednesday.
Across the Colorado River Basin — which includes a large swath of western Colorado — those flows are expected to be at or below 70% of the average recorded between 1991 and 2020, he said.
Across the Colorado River Basin, “I think it’s highly likely that we’ve already seen peak snowpack,” Moser said.
The vast majority of Colorado’s water supply comes from its winter snowpack. The lack of snow has water providers across the state enacting drought restrictions or preparing to do so.
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Denver Water — which serves 1.5 million people across the Front Range — will likely skip declaring a drought watch and instead skip to the next step by imposing Stage 1 water restrictions, Nathan Elder, the utility’s water supply manager, said Tuesday.
Those restrictions — last implemented in 2013 — would require mandatory reductions in outdoor water use.
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis on Tuesday activated the state Drought Task Force to address the dire conditions. The task force will monitor conditions across the state and recommend mitigation efforts to Polis. The governor last activated the task force in 2020.
If conditions continue to deteriorate, Polis could declare a drought emergency and seek federal disaster assistance.
“Colorado is experiencing the warmest year so far in our 131-year record, and one of the driest,” Polis said in a news release. “Activating the Drought Task Force will help ensure we are protecting one of our most precious resources by closely tracking impacts, supporting communities, and coordinating better as we prepare for the year ahead.”
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After hours of debate that stretched into Tuesday evening, Colorado Democrats advanced a bill to extend protections for immigrants who may be subject to federal enforcement operations, while rejecting another measure that sought to regulate local law enforcement and federal agents.
The two bills were introduced in the House last month as part of a legislative package in response to growing immigration crackdowns being carried out by the Trump administration.
A third bill, introduced in the Senate on the first day of the legislative session, would allow federal immigration agents to be sued in state civil court. That bill passed the chamber in late February.
The other measure lawmakers chose to advance on Tuesday, House Bill 1276, would expand existing limitations on how state and local officials interact with federal officers, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, as well as give more state oversight to detention centers.
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“We believe that, as we’re seeing attacks on our communities, that it’s important for Colorado to stand up and protect everyone that lives in our state,” lead bill sponsor Rep. Elizabeth Velasco, D-Glenwood Springs, said at Tuesday’s committee hearing.
Both measures faced opposition from Republicans and law enforcement groups, who argued the bills would infringe on federal authority to carry out immigration enforcement and create public safety conflicts.
“We recognize that these proposals come at a time of heightened public concern about federal immigration enforcement actions,” the Colorado Association of Chiefs of Police wrote in a statement Tuesday. “However, the legislation could create new safety risks for our peace officers and place them in legally conflicting situations, while imposing significant unfunded administrative burdens on local agencies that do not control federal operations. The bills also could make it harder for agencies to work together.”
Lawmakers say ‘Yes’ to detention center oversight, more limits on data sharing
HB 1276, also led by Rep. Lorena Garcia, D-Adams County, would give the state more authority to inspect food, water quality and other conditions at immigration detention centers. The centers would be required to pay for the inspections. Detention centers would also need to submit data annually to the state on the health outcomes of detainees and pass an environmental impact study.
The bill also bans local and state government transit services, such as buses, trains and state-regulated airports, from knowingly transporting immigrants for detention purposes. Violating any of those provisions would result in a civil penalty worth up to $50,000.
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Additionally, the bill would hold local and state agencies, not just their employees, liable for breaching data-sharing protections with ICE or other federal immigration officials. It would also require state agencies to announce when they received a federal subpoena related to immigration enforcement, and require that if state agencies comply with a subpoena, they notify the individuals whose information has been shared.
An amendment added to the bill Tuesday also stipulates that ICE is not allowed to enter secure areas of jails unless they have a judicial warrant. Proponents say those measures come in response to gaps in existing state law that were exposed last year.
That includes an incident wherein Gov. Jared Polis tried to force the then-director of the state’s labor department, Scott Moss, to comply with a federal subpoena seeking the information of 35 adult sponsors who were housing unaccompanied immigrant children.
While a judge ruled that Polis could not force Moss or the employees he directly supervised to comply, he did not outright prevent Polis from finding other ways to get the information from the agency, though the governor has since abandoned the effort.
Immigrant advocates on the Western Slope have also raised concerns over what they say are instances of law enforcement complying with ICE to facilitate detainments, including by giving ICE access to secure facilities of jails and assisting federal agents in apprehending and transporting people for detainments, which allegedly occurred in Garfield County.
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Velasco, the first Mexican-born state legislator in Colorado, represents Western Slope communities with large immigrant populations, who she says are “living in fear right now.”
State Rep. Elizabeth Velasco, D-Glenwood Springs, speaks about a bill to regulate detention facilities and expand limits on data sharing with immigration officers during a news conference outside the Colorado Capitol on Feb. 2, 2026.Robert Tann/Summit Daily News
“We’re seeing people hesitate to go to court or attend immigration appointments,” Velasco said. “Families worry that a loved one could be picked up at a work site or even the grocery store and not make it home, and communities are questioning whether public safety systems are there to protect them, or to harm them.”
Rep. Matt Soper, R-Delta, said he understands that there are “many in our state who are fearful of federal immigration authorities knocking on their door and taking them in the middle of the night for deportation, heaven forbid, to a third-world country with absolutely no due process.”
But Soper said he had concerns with the bill pitting Colorado against the federal government, which he said has “exclusive jurisdiction when it comes to immigration and immigration enforcement.”
“I also want our law enforcement showing up to immigrant communities,” Soper added, “and I fear that if they were to show up and there happens to be ICE engagement going on at that particular time, that they would be chilled away from any sort of engagement to keep our friends and our neighbors safe.”
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The House Judiciary Committee ultimately voted 6-5, mostly along party lines, to advance the bill to the House Finance Committee.
Bill to regulate police interactions with ICE is rejected
Lawmakers voted to kill a second measure, House Bill 1275, which would have required state and local law enforcement to arrest federal immigration officers who violate state law.
Other provisions of the bill would have prohibited state and local law enforcement from concealing their identity in most circumstances and required that they receive training on state immigration law.
Democrats who championed the bill said it was meant to hold federal agents accountable for unlawful and excessive conduct. They pointed to recent immigration operations in Minnesota in January, during which two U.S. citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were shot and killed by federal agents.
“It’s not lost on me that it was the death of two U.S. citizens in the suburbs that was the catapult to our constituents begging us — crying out — for help and for justice,” said Rep. Meg Froelich, D-Englewood, who was a lead sponsor of the bill alongside Rep. Yara Zokaie, D-Fort Collins and Sens. Iman Jodeh, D-Aurora, and Mike Weissman, D-Aurora.
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The bill faced pushback from law enforcement groups, who argued it would put them in the crossfire of federal immigration actions. The Colorado Association of Chiefs of Police said the measure would put law enforcement in an “impossible constitutional conflict,” since federal officers operate under different legal authorities.
One of the bill’s most controversial measures, which would have blocked current and former ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents from working as law enforcement officers in Colorado, was heavily amended in response to law enforcement concerns.
Rather than including a blanket ban, the bill was changed to require current and former agents to submit records related to any internal investigations or use-of-force incidents, which may disqualify them from being hired under Colorado law.
Republicans were uniformly opposed to the bill, and some Democrats also expressed concern that the requirements for local police to potentially intervene in federal enforcement could escalate, rather than reduce, conflicts.
“I do not want armed confrontation between peace officers and federal agents in our streets,” said Rep. Chad Clifford, D-Centennial.
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Clifford and another Democrat, Rep. Cecelia Espenoza of Denver, joined all Republicans on the committee to reject the bill in a 6-5 vote.
A proposal to ban gender-affirming surgery for minors in Colorado will head to the November ballot, the Secretary of State’s Office announced Tuesday.
Protect Kids Colorado, the advocacy group backing the initiative, submitted nearly 165,000 signatures to qualify the measure for the ballot. The measure needed about 125,000 to qualify. It is the third of three measures backed by the advocacy group and the second specifically concerning transgender people.
The measure would ban health care professionals from knowingly performing, prescribing or providing surgery to minors “for the purpose of altering biological sex characteristics.” Those types of surgeries have been extremely low, despite the attention they receive.
In 2019, there were 2.1 reported gender-affirming surgeries per 100,000 children aged 15-17 across the country, according to a 2024 study published by the American Medical Association. There were nearly zero such surgeries performed on children aged 13 and 14, and zero performed on children 12 and younger.
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Protect Kids Colorado has also won a spot on the ballot for an initiative to ban transgender youth and adults from competing on interscholastic or intramural sports teams that don’t align with their sex assigned at birth, and an initiative to require life sentences for people convicted of child sex trafficking.
Each measure would need a simple majority of support from voters to become law in 2027.
Erin Lee, executive director of Protect Kids Colorado, has previously praised volunteers for gathering the signatures.
“Protecting children is not a partisan issue; it’s a moral one,” she said when the proposal about trans athletes qualified for the ballot.
The measures have also drawn immediate opposition from LGBTQ+ rights organizations and supporters. Opponents of the measure have formed Families Not Politics to oppose the measures.
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“Now that these measures have qualified for the ballot, voters should know what’s at stake,” Nadine Bridges, executive director of One Colorado, said in a statement issued by the opposition committee. “Coloradans have always valued individual freedom and the rights of families to make private decisions without political interference, but these measures would go against those core values. ”
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