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Poll shows Trump gaining support among California Republicans for presidential nod

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Poll shows Trump gaining support among California Republicans for presidential nod


A poll Monday found former President Donald Trump has gained support since last fall among California Republicans for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, which under new party rules adopted last summer could deliver him the state’s entire haul of delegates.

The poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found support among likely California Republican voters for Trump’s 2024 presidential bid has risen to 66% from 57% in the institute’s last poll on the question in late October, with none of his rivals for the nomination anywhere close.

The poll found 11% of Republican voters support Nikki Haley, the former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina governor, 8% back Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 3% favor entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Haley’s support inched up from last fall while DeSantis’ slipped and Ramaswamy’s was unchanged.

That could prove a significant boost to Trump’s campaign. The institute noted that last summer, the California GOP changed its rules for awarding delegates to the Republican National Convention. A Republican candidate who secures more than half of the statewide primary vote will now be awarded all of California’s 169 convention delegates, nearly 14% of the total needed for the GOP presidential nomination.

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The poll found Trump is now receiving majority support across all major demographic and regional subgroups of the state’s Republican primary voter electorate, including 72% of GOP voters who supported him in 2020, strongly conservative voters, Latino Republicans, voters under age 40.

“The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former President Donald Trump in a strong position to achieve that threshold in the state’s upcoming March 5 presidential primary election,” the institute said in a statement on the findings. But it also added that the former president’s strong showing among California Republicans hardly reflects his popularity statewide.

Though Golden State voters’ enthusiasm has cooled for another Joe Biden presidential term, the Democratic president who defeated Trump by 30 percentage points in California in 2020 still would beat his predecessor in a rematch.

The poll found that California voters overall now hold mixed views of Biden with 50% having a favorable view of the president and 48% an unfavorable view, and that 53% disapprove of Biden’s job performance while 44% approve. But Californians opinions of Trump are nearly two-to-one negative, the poll found, with 34% overall holding a favorable view of the former president and 63% an unfavorable view.

California voters overall also had more unfavorable than favorable views of presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a lawyer running an independent campaign, the Peace and Freedom party’s Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, though most had no opinion of West or Stein.

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The poll found that California voters would favor Biden over Trump 47% to 31% in a race that also includes Kennedy, West and Stein. If Trump were the only alternative to Biden, Californians would favor Biden 56% to 37%.

The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish Jan. 4-8 among 4,470 likely California voters including 1,351 considered likely to vote in the Republican primary election. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for California likely voters and 3.5 percentage points for likely Republican primary voters.



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California man told Wisconsin shooting suspect about plan to attack a government building, gun order says

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California man told Wisconsin shooting suspect about plan to attack a government building, gun order says


A California man was detained by the FBI and ordered to have his guns temporarily seized after he allegedly communicated with the 15-year-old shooter who killed two people at her Wisconsin school, documents show.

The gun violence emergency protective order was served to a 20-year-old in Carlsbad in San Diego County on Tuesday, according to the order, which was obtained by NBC San Diego.

The narrative of the order says the California man had communicated with Natalie “Samantha” Rupnow, who police say opened fire Monday at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, which she attended, killing two people before she killed herself.

The FBI detained the man “after he was discovered plotting a mass shooting with the Madison Wisconsin shooter,” a Carlsbad police officer wrote in the gun order.

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The man “admitted to the FBI agents that he told Rupnow that he would arm himself with explosives and a gun and that he would target a government building,” the Carlsbad officer wrote.

The FBI saw messages between him and Rupnow, the order says. It does not go into further detail about the communication or the alleged plans.

The order was approved by a San Diego County judge and served at the Carlsbad home just before 9 p.m. Tuesday, it shows. A court hearing about the order is set for Jan. 3, the document reads.

The order says guns were reported and searched for, but it does not say police seized any. The order requires someone to turn over firearms and not to possess any guns while it is in effect.

A vigil on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Capital on Tuesday to mourn the victims of the shooting at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison. Scott Olson / Getty Images

A spokesperson for the FBI’s San Diego field office declined to comment Wednesday evening.

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Carlsbad police said the investigation is being led by Madison police. A Madison police spokesperson referred questions to the FBI.

It’s not clear whether there are any criminal charges in the matter. None of the agencies mentioned criminal charges, and a spokesperson for the San Diego County District Attorney’s Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

No cases with the man’s name appeared in an online search of criminal cases in the county Wednesday night.  

A phone number for the man or his family could not immediately be found in public records Wednesday.

“There is no threat to the Carlsbad community at this time,” Carlsbad police said in a statement.

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Investigators in Madison are working to determine a motive in the shooting Monday morning.

Rupnow, a freshman, opened fire at a study hall that had mixed grades, Madison police said.

A staff member, Erin West, 42, and a student, Rubi Vergara, 14, were killed, the Dane County Medical Examiner’s Office said, and other people were injured.

Rubi was in the ninth grade, and “her gentle, loving, and kind heart was reflected in her smile,” the school said in a statement Wednesday after their names were released. “Often seen with a book in hand, she had a gift for art and music,” it said.

West was a substitute teacher who became a full-time staff member. “ALCS is a better school for the work of Erin West,” the school said.

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Two students sustained life-threatening injuries, and they remained hospitalized Wednesday, police said. Four other people with minor injuries have been discharged.

Two guns were found at the school, only one of which was used in the shooting, police said in a statement Wednesday. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes has said the gun that was used was a handgun.

The federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has completed its data trace of the guns, but police said more information about the weapons was not being released Wednesday.

Police are looking at Rupnow’s social media accounts as part of the investigation, the police department said.

“Our team is looking to connect to anyone who may have interacted with Natalie Rupnow in the days and weeks leading up to the shooting,” Madison police said in Wednesday’s statement.

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California declares state of emergency as US suffers first severe human case of bird flu

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California declares state of emergency as US suffers first severe human case of bird flu


The U.S. reported its first severe human case of bird flu on Wednesday in a Louisiana resident who is hospitalized in critical condition after suspected contact with an infected backyard flock.

California, the most populous state, declared an emergency over the H5N1 virus as it spread more widely in dairy herds and after it has infected dozens of farm workers this year.

Federal and state officials have failed to control the nation’s outbreak, which infected dairy cattle for the first time in 2024, as some farmers resist testing and containment measures.

After the U.S. reported its first severe human case of bird flu on Wednesday in Louisiana, the state of California has declared an emergency over the H5N1 virus. Getty Images

Severe respiratory illness in the Louisiana patient shows increased health risks for people from the virus that previously caused eye redness, or conjunctivitis, in infected dairy workers.

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Bird flu still represents a low risk to the general public, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

CDC has confirmed 61 human cases nationally since April, mostly in workers on dairy farms where the virus infected cattle.

Workers culling infected poultry also have tested positive.

The patient in Louisiana is suffering severe respiratory illness, the Louisiana Department of Health said in a statement.

The person is reported to have underlying medical conditions and is over the age of 65, the department said, putting the patient at higher risk.

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The case is the first to be linked to backyard, non-commercial poultry, said Demetre Daskalakis, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, on a call with reporters.

The virus first infected dairy cattle in 2024 with some farmers resisting testing and containment measures. Getty Images

The CDC said a sporadic case of severe illness in a person with H5N1 bird flu is not unexpected as such cases have occurred in other countries in 2024 and prior years, including cases that led to death.

“The mild cases that we’ve seen in the United States largely reflect that many of the individuals are getting infected by dairy cows and that’s very different than getting infected with infected birds,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

“If you look at the genotype of this patient in Louisiana, it wasn’t the cattle strain. It was a wild bird strain.”

CDC said partial viral genome data from the infected patient shows that the virus belongs to the D1.1 genotype, recently detected in wild birds and poultry in the United States and in recent human cases in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington state.

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This genotype of the virus is different from the B3.13 genotype detected in dairy cows, human cases in multiple states, and some poultry outbreaks in the country, CDC said.

The patient in Louisiana who contracted bird flu is suffering from severe respiratory illness. AP

Bird flu has infected more than 860 dairy herds in 16 states since March and killed 123 million poultry since the outbreak began in 2022.

In California, the top U.S. milk-producing state, 649 herds have tested positive since late August, roughly 60% of its herds, according to U.S. data.

Four southern California dairies tested positive on Dec. 12, “necessitating a shift from regional containment to statewide monitoring and response,” California Governor Gavin Newsom said in his emergency declaration.

Earlier cases had been centered in the Central Valley in the middle of the state.

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The declaration aims to streamline and expedite California’s response by allowing more flexibility for staffing, contracting and other rules, Newsom said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it has enrolled 13 states in a newly launched national bulk milk bird flu testing plan, representing nearly half of the nation’s milk supply.



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Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry

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Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry


  • The Biden administration on Wednesday approved California’s ban on gas cars by 2035.
  • Trump has promised to revoke California’s authority to set strict limits on tailpipe pollution.
  • It’s a high-stakes fight over the future of electric vehicles and tackling the climate crisis.

The stage is set for another battle between President-elect Donald Trump and California over the state’s aggressive push for electric vehicles that could affect the rest of the country.

The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday said California can go ahead with its ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035. The approval is an attempt to safeguard the state’s strict limits on tailpipe pollution from Trump’s promise to revoke them and roll back other federal incentives for electric vehicles.

The stakes are high for automakers because what happens in California can dictate companies’ broader EV strategies and the pace of the country’s shift away from fossil fuels. The state accounts for some 11% of the US auto market and is also the top EV market in the country. In the first half of 2024, EVs and hybrids accounted for nearly 40% of sales in California.

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On top of that, 11 other states and Washington D.C. have adopted rules similar to California’s as they seek to reduce the country’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. The rules require automakers to sell a growing number of zero-emissions vehicles over time. In 2026, at least 35% of new cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs must be electric in California and five other states, while other states’ targets kick in in 2027.

Automakers largely support easing emissions regulations

While Trump will face legal challenges in trying to roll back California’s rules, he could find some automakers on his side.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a lobbying group representing most new vehicle manufacturers in the US, has already asked Trump to ease emissions regulations but keep federal tax incentives that keep EVs affordable.

John Bozzella, president of the alliance, said Wednesday that the waiver was an expected development and the Trump administration will likely revoke it next year.

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“We’ve said the country should have a single, national standard to reduce carbon in transportation,” Bozzella said in a statement. “But the question about the general authority of California to establish a vehicle emissions program – and for other states to follow that program – is ultimately something for policymakers and the courts to sort out.”

Trump, some Republican lawmakers, and groups linked to fossil fuel interests have repeatedly attacked EVs on the campaign trail, falsely claiming that Americans would be forced to abandon their gas-powered vehicles.

Those attacks come as the EV market deals with a marked slowdown in demand, forcing many companies to reasses their long-term plans for battery-powered cars and, in some cases, add more hybrids to the mix. A pullback in production has made it harder for many companies to meet long-term emissions requirements. Automakers including General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis have laid off thousands of workers.

Auto market analysts, environmental lawyers, and policy experts told Business Insider that they expect the shift to zero-emissions vehicles to continue regardless of who’s in the White House — albeit at a slower pace if Trump and Congress overturn tax incentives to buy EVs and investments in charging infrastructure.

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“Whatever the Trump administration does this time, automakers’ concerns about stability will come up again because all of these manufacturers have said zero-emissions vehicles are the future,” Sean Donahue, an attorney who’s represented the Environmental Defense Fund in litigation over California’s emissions waiver, said.

He added that there’s pressure from regulators in other countries to address the climate crisis. US automakers also don’t want to fall far behind competitors in countries like China, where affordable EVs have taken off.

California looks to ‘Trump-proof’ its regulations

Even if Trump does revoke California’s emissions waiver, Gov. Gavin Newsom is already trying to “Trump-proof” the state, including its EV and climate policies.

Newsom said he would restore rebates for consumers who buy EVs if Trump ends the federal $7,500 tax credits enacted in the Inflation Reduction Act. This month, the state’s energy commission approved a $1.4 billion investment in EV charging and hydrogen fuel stations over the next four years. The commission said the funding could help build nearly 17,000 new public chargers for passenger vehicles — on top of the 152,000 available now.

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Newsom also convened a special legislative session to bolster California’s defenses against Trump’s attacks. Lawmakers could pass $25 million in new funding for the California Department of Justice so the state can file litigation against the Trump administration. That will likely happen if Trump revokes the state’s tailpipe pollution waiver.

Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump transition team, said that Trump plans to stop what he says are attacks on gas-powered cars.

“When he takes office, President Trump will support the auto industry, allowing space for both gas-powered cars AND electric vehicles,” she said in an email.

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Ann Carlson, a professor of environmental law at the University of California at Los Angeles, told Business Insider that she expects the Trump administration to face an uphill legal battle.

She said the EPA has approved California’s authority to set strict rules for tailpipe pollution for decades because the state’s air quality is so bad. Otherwise, areas including Los Angeles and the Central Valley wouldn’t comply with federal air pollution laws and could be penalized.

“The sanction is the withholding of federal highway funds,” Carlson — who recently served as chief counsel to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — said. “It’s quite draconian. So California has a pretty good argument that it needs these waivers to meet federal law.”

The Supreme Court last week agreed to consider a lawsuit that oil and gas producers filed against the EPA over its waivers allowing California to set stricter limits on tailpipe pollution than the federal government. However, SCOTUS will only decide whether fossil fuel makers have standing to sue over what they say is bureaucratic overreach and won’t consider whether California’s waiver is legal.

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James Di Filippo, a principal policy analyst at the research firm Atlas Public Policy, said automakers will likely continue to walk back their EV investments while the legal battles play out. Companies could seek another compromise with California to restore more certainty as they plan new vehicle models for years to come.

“If they’re uncertain about a regulatory outcome, they’ll default to a less intense push,” he said.





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