Opinion: Newsom Is a Historically Popular California Governor and Must Leverage That

The report is now clear, and the numbers are staggering. 

In 2018, Gov. Gavin Newsom received 62% of the final election vote, probably the most of any Democratic governor in state historical past. In 2021, Newsom beat a recall effort with the identical share of voters selecting to retain him. Whereas some votes stay uncounted, Newsom is poised to say 59% or extra this 12 months — a convincing double-digit win for a second time period.

These are historic figures. Amongst Newsom’s current predecessors, solely George Deukmejian earned 60% even as soon as, eking out nearly 61% in his 1986 reelection bid following a sub-50% efficiency in 1982. Examine this with then-Gov. Ronald Reagan, who received 57% in 1966 earlier than falling underneath 53% in 1970; Pat and Jerry Brown, who collectively averaged 55% throughout six elections; Arnold Schwarzenegger, who by no means exceeded 56%; and Grey Davis and Pete Wilson, who hovered within the excessive 40s and 50s.

To discover a governor whose electoral success rivals Newsom’s, one should flip again the clock nearly 80 years to 1946, a decidedly much less partisan period when Earl Warren received 91% of the vote in his reelection bid (as nominee of each Republican and Democratic events), and 64% in 1950. 

To match Warren in vote-getting — that’s rarefied political air. However skeptics will low cost Newsom’s success in predictably superficial methods. 

The primary objection is that Newsom advantages from the structural benefits of a deep blue state. But this alone can’t clarify such vast margins. The actual fact is that Newsom attracts shocking help from non-Democrats, together with 48% of California’s independents, in response to an October survey by the Public Coverage Institute of California. Roughly 13% of California Republicans approve of Newsom’s efficiency to date.

For perspective, the identical ballot discovered President Joe Biden drew a extra modest 44% approval from California independents and solely 8% from Republicans, contesting the nationwide narrative of Newsom as partisan pugilist and Biden as conciliator. However it’s revealing in one other means, too. It underscores Newsom’s help throughout the political spectrum, the key sauce to successful such excessive vote shares in a state whose registered voters are nonetheless largely non-Democrats.

The second objection is that Newsom solely appears to be like sturdy as a result of his opponents are so weak. That is additionally flawed. Many conveniently overlook that the 2021 recall confirmed actual momentum till Newsom overcame it within the latter phases of the marketing campaign. It additionally overlooks that challengers and out of doors teams have spent a whole bunch of tens of millions of {dollars} attempting to defeat Newsom throughout three gubernatorial contests. 

The most effective idea for Newsom’s success can be the only: Voters suppose he’s doing a very good job. Even when there’s disagreement over his method to points like housing and COVID-19, there’s a broad enchantment for his no-nonsense management model and bold objectives.

None of that is to counsel that Newsom has time to get pleasure from a victory lap. Homelessness remains to be dangerous and getting worse. Poised to grow to be the world’s fourth-largest financial system, California’s price of dwelling is unbearably excessive. Californians are feeling the brunt of local weather change and more and more view crime as a prime concern.

On this sense, Newsom’s historic vote share is way more than political trivia or fodder for horse race commentary. Fairly, it must be the indispensable instrument for uniting constituencies and bettering a few of California’s intractable issues. 

In different phrases, the query will not be whether or not Newsom is traditionally fashionable with California voters — he’s. The query is as a substitute: how will he put that reputation to good use?

Timothy Perry is a personal legal professional. He was co-chair of Newsom’s 2018 “Defending California Values” coverage committee and a former chief of workers on the Governor’s Workplace of Emergency Companies. He wrote this for CalMatters, a public curiosity journalism enterprise dedicated to explaining how California’s Capitol works and why it issues.