Democrats favored in California’s competitive races, new poll finds

Plus, how California adults and likely voters are feeling about the direction of the country leading up to the November election.

SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — A majority of California voters, including those in competitive districts currently held by a Republican, said they plan to vote for Democratic candidates in a number of federal races this November, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll.

Five months out from the general election, the poll sought to offer a snapshot of how voters are feeling about candidates, a handful of propositions set to be on the ballot, and the direction the Golden State and country is heading towards.

According to PPIC, over 1,600 Californians were surveyed between May 23 to June 2 for the poll.

How respondents felt about candidates

Democratic candidates for congressional seats maintained a healthy lead in the poll, notably in 10 U.S. House of Representatives districts considered to be competitive this year and in the race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

When asked how they would vote if the election for the U.S. House was held today, 62% of likely voters in California indicated they would cast their ballot for a Democrat while 36% said they would support a Republican, according to the poll.

In the state’s most competitive districts, which include several currently held by Republicans, 59% of overall likely voters favored the Democratic candidate and 39% leaned towards the Republican. About 2% of likely voters said they were undecided.

These in-play seats include the 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 27th, 40th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th U.S. House districts in California, according to the Cook Political Report.

“Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in local House district races by a 26-point margin and by a 20-point margin across the competitive districts,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy.

A similar margin exists for top-ticket races, according to the poll. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump as Californians’ presidential pick by a 24-point margin. However, 13% of voters said they would be opting for a third-party candidate.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leads former baseball player and Republican Steve Garvey by 25 points (62% to 37%) — an advantage that remains “virtually unchanged” from the April poll, according to PPIC researchers.

Bond, tax-related ballot measures both draw disapproval

Likely voters in this latest PPIC poll seemed inclined to shoot down a couple key statewide ballot measures tied to bonds and taxes.

According to the poll, about 64% of likely voters in the state generally expressed skepticism about whether now is a good time to issue bonds for state programs and infrastructure projects. However, no specific bond proposals have made it onto the ballot yet.

Meanwhile, majorities of likely voters said they would vote “no” on competing proposals to reform how local taxes and bonds can be passed.

About 63% of likely voters told pollsters they would oppose a citizens initiative to raise the threshold for voters to approve local tax increases to a two-thirds majority, as well as require statewide tax increases to get a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber and get approval from a simple majority of voters.

As for a clashing proposal to replace the two-thirds vote requirement to a 55% majority approval for local tax and bond measures on public infrastructure and affordable housing, the poll said a simple majority (53%) are planning to vote “no.”

However, a majority of voters seemed inclined to approve another quasi-tax-related ballot measure that would require constitutional amendments to pass by a supermajority if they are seeking to increase the number of votes needed to approve a measure to the same threshold.

According to the poll, 58% of likely voters said they would support the proposal to make a supermajority, or two-thirds vote, required for a constitutional amendment proposing a two-thirds vote change for local and state measures.

How voters feel about the state of California and U.S.

The poll found that a majority of adults and likely voters — 62% and 59%, respectively — said they believed things in California are generally going in the wrong direction, with Republicans and Independent respondents more likely to agree.

Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of both groups expressed pessimism about the country at large, with 75% of adults and 74% of likely voters saying they think it’s headed in the wrong direction. The statement also garnered substantial majorities across political affiliation, the poll found.

Respondents also exhibited a negative outlook on the economy, with a solid majority of both groups saying they believed the state (68% all adults, 64% of likely voters) and country (68% all adults, 64% of likely voters) will endure “bad economic times” in the next year.

One of the major focal points of the economic health of the state touched on by the poll is California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s May revision to the state’s budget. After being read a brief description of what it entailed, the poll found varied views on it, but overall respondents appeared to have been supportive.

Overall, a simple majority of both adults and likely voters said they favored the governor’s approach to close a $45 billion-dollar deficit, although registered Democrats were significantly more likely to say they approved than Republicans.

Responses are also more mixed when it comes to specific provisions of the May revision, the poll found. For instance, 51% of adults and 49% of likely voters said use of $4.2 billion from the state’s reserves to help address the budget shortfall was a “bad idea.”

“Majorities favor the governor’s revised state budget plan, while specific proposals for spending cuts and the use of rainy day funds receive more mixed reviews,” Baldassare said.