Can Donald Trump break his California record? What polls show before rally

As former President Donald Trump prepares to hold a rally near Coachella, California, on October 12, recent polling data shows he could break his own record for futility in the Golden State.

At a news conference in September while visiting his National Golf Club in Ranchos Palos Verdes for a fundraiser, Trump called California “a mess” and blasted Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom over their handling of immigration, crime and local elections.

How to Watch Trump’s Coachella Rally

Trump is scheduled to speak Saturday at 5 p.m. PST, with doors opening at 12 p.m. at Calhoun Ranch near Coachella.

The event is open to the public, with online registration available through Trump’s campaign website.

“Under Kamala Harris and her dangerous Democrat allies like Tim Walz, the notorious ‘California Dream’ has turned into a nightmare for everyday Americans,” states the campaign email announcing the event. “Californians are suffocating under rising prices for everything from groceries to housing, thanks to Kamalanomics.”

Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

Trump’s coming appearance at Calhoun Ranch marks his first public event in the Coachella Valley since a private fundraiser in 2020.

Trump’s Polling in California

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for California, updated on October 7, 2024, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by a substantial margin. The data shows Harris leading with 59.7 percent support compared to Trump’s 34.8 percent, giving the incumbent a 24.9 percentage point advantage.

The most recent survey included in FiveThirtyEight’s average, conducted by the University of Southern California and California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy from September 12-25, shows Harris leading Trump 58 percent to 36 percent among 1,685 likely voters.

An ActiVote survey conducted from August 21 to September 21 among 400 likely voters found Harris leading Trump 64 percent to 36 percent. A Capitol Weekly poll from September 11-16, sampling 1,054 likely voters, showed Harris ahead 59 percent to 34 percent.

California’s political landscape has shifted dramatically over the past few decades. Once a reliable Republican stronghold in presidential elections from 1952 through 1988, except for Barry Goldwater’s loss in 1964, the state has become increasingly Democratic.

Trump’s performance in the 2016 election set a low bar for Republican candidates in California. He received 31.62 percent of the vote, the worst showing for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1856. Hillary Clinton won California with 61.73 percent of the vote, a margin of 30.11 percent and a vote difference of over 4.2 million.

Despite California being the most populous state, it only delivered Trump his third-largest vote count in 2016, behind Florida and Texas. Clinton’s victory marked the first time a Democrat had won Orange County since 1936, and only the fourth time in U.S. history that a Republican was elected president without carrying California.

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won California by approximately 30 points over Donald Trump, marking the fourth consecutive presidential election where the Democratic nominee secured over 60 percent of the vote in the state.

With 54 electoral votes, California remains a crucial prize in presidential elections, despite losing one electoral vote after the 2020 Census. The state still commands more than 10 percent of the total 538 electoral votes.

Trump’s visit is already drawing attention from backers and opponents. In 2020, his fundraiser in Rancho Mirage attracted dozens of supporters to greet him at Palm Springs International Airport, while hundreds of foes held a counterprotest near the venue.