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California’s Senate primary could fell two prominent Democrats and elevate Republican Steve Garvey

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California’s Senate primary could fell two prominent Democrats and elevate Republican Steve Garvey


LOS ANGELES — California’s Senate race was expected to be a three-way Democratic prizefight, but the possibility of a record-low turnout is elevating the chances of Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball star, and could derail the congressional careers of two prominent progressives.

In a year headlined by a likely presidential rematch that many Americans are dreading, California voters thus far have been sluggish to return mail-in ballots that were sent to 22 million homes earlier this month. The relative trickle of ballots has tended to come from older, white, conservative-leaning homeowners, a sweet spot for Republicans such as Garvey, a one-time National League MVP who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.

For months, Rep. Adam Schiff has had the fundraising and polling edge in a crowded Democratic field. Garvey’s ascent has imperiled the political prospects of Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter. The top two finishers in the March 5 contest, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November in the liberal-leaning state.

“We’re at a real risk of losing,” Porter’s campaign warned in fundraising emails. Without more financial support, the plea went, “Katie is out of Congress for good.”

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Schiff was a leading voice in the two impeachments of former President Donald Trump. Lee is a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Porter has drawn attention on social media with her sharp questioning of tech CEOs in Capitol Hill hearings.

After the death of Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein in September, all three entered the race. Porter is leaving her swing district in Southern California as Democrats try to regain control of the House, where Republicans now hold a slim edge.

Presidential elections usually drive Democratic turnout in California, but that hasn’t been the case this year, with President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump on track for a second matchup in which both are viewed unfavorably by many voters.

“This is a low-interest, low-turnout kind of election cycle. That generally creates an electorate that is older, more conservative, whiter,” said Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a research firm that closely tracks voting trends and works with Democrats, independent candidates and academics.

While the dynamic could shift by the time primary voting ends, Mitchell said it’s possible that Garvey ends up with the highest total as the Democratic candidates splinter votes on the left.

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“I don’t see a surge of Democratic turnout coming in the end, but there could be a surge of Republican voters in the end,” Mitchell said. He said that could be driven by those voters influenced by Trump’s unsupported claims of election fraud who will vote in-person rather than through the mail.

Schiff told reporters recently that he was concerned “for the sake of our democracy” about a low turnout. His campaign has sent 3 million texts and made over 50,000 phone calls to potential supporters so far.

Last spring, the race looked like it would revolve around Schiff, Porter and Lee, who are largely indistinguishable on policy but bring different backgrounds and styles to the contest. Garvey, after years of flirting with politics, entered the race in October and gave Republicans a recognizable name on the ballot. He retired from baseball nearly four decades ago, in 1987, and had to overcome the resurfacing of tawdry details about his private life, including having two children with women he wasn’t married to, that had undercut the clean-cut public persona he cultivated in his Dodger days.

A Republican hasn’t won a Senate race in California since 1988, and registered Democrats hold a 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans statewide.

In all, more than two dozen names will appear on the Senate ballot for the six-year term that begins next year. Many of those candidates are political unknowns.

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The race was once anticipated as a showcase of Democratic rivalries on the party’s left wing. That never materialized.

Schiff emerged as the establishment pick with endorsements from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, most of California’s congressional delegation and former Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. His fundraising prowess — he had $35 million on hand at the end of the year — has allowed him to roll out a steady stream of TV and digital ads, backed by a barrage from supportive super political action committees.

According to data from media tracking firm AdImpact, Schiff’s campaign has had almost a 2-to-1 advertising advantage over his nearest rival, spending $28.2 million through Wednesday, followed by Porter at $14.6 million. Lee had $1.3 million in buys.

Porter’s campaign has accused Schiff and his supporters of running ads intentionally spotlighting Garvey to lift the former baseball star’s profile with Republicans, on the premise that having a GOP opponent would presumably be an easier match for Schiff in the fall.

“Garvey himself hasn’t run a single TV ad, but his name and face are all over California’s TVs thanks to this cynical play,” Porter’s campaign said in an email.

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Porter, who presents herself as a suburban soccer mom out to protect the middle class, has warned that ”billionaires, establishment politicians and corporate special interests are trying to buy this race, and it looks like their plan might work.”

Schiff defends his ads and told reporters that Garvey has attacked him in debates and interviews. “I’m not going to ignore him.”

Lee, a longtime standard-bearer in the party’s progressive wing, has struggled to raise money. The lack of cash has left Lee, who has proposed a $50-an-hour federal minimum wage and was the only member of Congress to vote against authorizing military force after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, lagging in polling.

Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin calls Lee and Porter “iconic liberal stars,” but says Schiff’s financial advantage appears decisive.

Porter spent nearly $29 million to defend her district in coastal Orange County in 2022, while Schiff was running in a safe Democratic district.

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“You have three talented, impressive Democrats running,” Tulchin said, “but only one can win.”



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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California’s state primary

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California’s state primary


WASHINGTON — Two candidates for California governor will emerge from a massive field of 61 hopefuls in a state primary on Tuesday, when voters will also select U.S. House nominees using a new map they approved in a 2025 ballot measure.

Also on the ballot is a long list of state and local contests, including a Los Angeles mayoral race where the Democratic incumbent mayor faces more than a dozen challengers. Among them is a former reality TV personality whose candidacy has caught the eye of another former reality TV personality, President Donald Trump.

California’s top-two primary format, where all candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party, has complicated the campaign calculus in several high-profile races, including the one to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. While Democratic candidates often welcome the opportunity to run head-to-head against a Republican in the dark blue state, the number of well-known Democrats in the race threatens to split the vote and inadvertently clear the path for two Republicans to advance to the general election, which would guarantee a Republican governor.

The Democratic field includes former U.S. health secretary Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, billionaire 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Republicans vying for the seat include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, who has Trump’s endorsement.

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Democrats Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee will also appear on the ballot, although both have withdrawn from the race. Swalwell was a top contender in the campaign but withdrew on April 12 following sexual assault allegations he has denied. He resigned from Congress two days later.

In the race for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House, a new congressional map favorable to Democrats has complicated the reelection bids of several Republican House incumbents. Voters approved the new district boundaries in a Nov. 2025 referendum, which was a response to Trump’s initiative in Texas and other states to maximize the number of GOP seats heading into the fall midterm election.

In the 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley considered his limited options and left the Republican Party in March to run for reelection as an independent.

Republican U.S. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are competing against each other in the 40th Congressional District. Democrat Esther Kim Varet is one of several challengers hoping to snag one of two spots in the general election.

Also on the ballot is a special election in the 1st Congressional District to complete the term of the late Republican U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who died in January. The five-person field pits the Democratic state Senate President against the Republican state Assembly Minority Leader. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will compete one-on-one on Aug. 4. The winner will serve under the current district boundaries, not the new map going into effect in the next Congress.

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A special election to fill Swalwell’s vacant 14th Congressional District seat will be held June 16, also under the current boundaries.

In the race for Los Angeles mayor, Democrat Karen Bass seeks a second term in the nonpartisan office against tech entrepreneur Adam Miller, former MTV reality show cast member Spencer Pratt, City Councilmember Nithya Raman and others. Trump recently said of Pratt, “I’d like to see him do well.”

Democrats have a significant advantage over Republicans in statewide races based on their overwhelming support in the populous areas surrounding Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento and San Diego. Republicans tend to perform best in the more sparsely populated areas of northern California and the Central Valley, while running competitively in Southern California suburbs outside of Los Angeles and San Diego. A Republican has not won statewide office in California since 2006.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. PT, which is 11 p.m. ET.

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What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested races for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, Board of Equalization, state Senate, State House, mayor of Long Beach, mayor of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County sheriff.

Who gets to vote?

Any registered voter in California may participate in the state primary.

How many voters are there?

As of April 3, there were about 23.1 million registered voters in California, including about 10.4 million Democrats, about 5.8 million Republicans and about 5.3 million not registered with any party.

How many people actually vote?

About 7.3 million votes were cast in the U.S. Senate primary in 2024, roughly a third of registered voters.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 89% of vote in the 2024 U.S. Senate primary was cast before primary day.

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As of Thursday, about 2.6 million ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

About four out of every five California counties release some or most of their results from mail voting in the first vote report of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day results are released. Almost half the counties release most or all of their in-person early voting results in the first vote report.

Since mail voting tends to favor Democrats and in-person Election Day voting tends to favor Republicans, the release of mail voting results at the start of the night could result in an early lead for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates may narrow the gap as more Election Day results are counted.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 primaries, the AP first reported results at 11:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 6:01 a.m. ET with about 52% of total votes counted. The count reached 99% of total votes about two weeks later on March 20 at 7:47 p.m. ET.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

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How do recounts work?

There are no automatic recounts in California. Any registered voter may request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 14 days until the June 16 special primary in Congressional District 14, 63 days until the Aug. 4 special general election in Congressional District 1, 77 days until the Aug. 18 special general election in Congressional District 14 and 154 days until the Nov. 3 general election.

Copyright © 2026 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.



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‘Sneaker wave’ sucks California fisherman out to sea

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‘Sneaker wave’ sucks California fisherman out to sea


A fisherman was pulled from the ocean and rushed to a hospital in critical condition after a powerful “sneaker wave” swept him off the shoreline at Baker Beach in San Francisco.

The dramatic May 29 rescue unfolded around 1 p.m. in the Presidio, where emergency crews responded to reports of a person sucked out to sea.

According to the San Francisco Fire Department, witnesses said the fisherman was standing along the shoreline when a sneaker wave suddenly surged ashore, knocking him to the ground and into the ocean, leaving him incapacitated.

Bystanders quickly called 911, helping launch a large-scale rescue effort that included San Francisco firefighters, an SFPD police boat, drone units and a helicopter.

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Within minutes of being dispatched, three rescue swimmers from SFFD entered the water and reached the victim, officials said in a post on X. The crew conducted an open-water rescue and brought the fisherman safely back to shore.

Paramedic rescue swimmers and additional emergency medical personnel immediately began advanced life support measures and rushed the victim to a nearby hospital in critical condition, fire officials said.

Officials said the harrowing ordeal serves as a reminder of the dangers posed by sneaker waves, which can strike with little or no warning.

Unlike typical waves, sneaker waves can surge much farther up the beach than expected, even on days when ocean conditions appear calm. The powerful waves can easily knock people off their feet and drag them into the water before they have time to react.

Fire officials urged beachgoers to stay off wet sand and rocks, keep a constant watch on the ocean and never turn their backs to the water. Anyone who sees a person swept into the surf is asked not to enter the water, but instead to call 911 immediately and throw the victim a flotation device if one is available.

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“Early calls to 911 save lives,” fire officials said.



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California reports one of largest drops in homelessness in past year, Hud reports

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California reports one of largest drops in homelessness in past year, Hud reports


California reported one of the largest decreases in homelessness over the past year, according to a new report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (Hud).

The Golden state recorded a total unhoused population of 181,934 in 2025 – an almost 3% decrease since the year prior, placing it among the five states with the largest decreases from 2024. However, more significant drops were recorded in Illinois (44%), Hawaii (41%), Florida (11%) and New York (8%).

The new data signals at least some success on the part of Gavin Newsom, the California governor who has intensified his crackdown on homelessness over the past year. In May 2025 he announced a new model ordinance for cities and counties to address “persistent” homeless encampments, as well as $3.3bn in voter-approved funding to increase housing and drug treatment programs.

California, along with New York, had the largest population of unsheltered people recorded in 2025. Homelessness has been a key issue in this year’s gubernatorial race, as well as in the Los Angeles mayoral race.

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The data also showed that the national homeless population decreased for the first time since 2016, coming down 3% from 2024. The Trump administration attempted to downplay the small one-year decrease, instead highlighting the fact that homelessness has increased 27% since 2013.

“The data is clear that the status quo of ‘housing first’ has failed to meaningfully reduce homelessness, resulting in crisis levels of people living on the streets,” Scott Turner, the Hud secretary, said in a press release. “HUD is restoring its programs to advance recovery and self-sufficiency and to ensure that taxpayer-funded benefits serve American families.”

As the administration attempted to downplay the drop in homelessness, it also sought to connect the success to its immigration policies, stating that the 2025 decrease was “attributable to decreases in Sanctuary Cities”.

The data comes from the federally mandated homeless point-in-time count, which tallies people sleeping in shelters and outside on a given day. On a single night in January 2025, there were 745,652 homeless persons in the United States.

While anti-homelessness advocates cited the decrease in homelessness as a “relief”, they also pointed out that the Trump administration’s policies may erode the progress that has been made.

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“So much of the progress reflected in the 2025 PIT Count is due to targeted housing and service resources that were available in 2024 to rehouse people, including the highly successful Emergency Housing Voucher program, and new funds to address rural and unsheltered homelessness,” Ann Oliva, the CEO of the National Alliance to End Homelessness, said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, the Trump Administration has largely deprioritized these tools and worked to dismantle the very systems that drove these reductions.” Oliva pointed to the administration’s proposed cuts to permanent housing programs, which the organization found would “force at least 170,000 formerly homeless people back on the streets”.

The government has also mandated treatment for recipients of federal housing vouchers, and penalized jurisdictions that employed harm-reduction strategies such as safe consumption sites. In April 2026, Hud introduced a proposed rule that would require federally funded shelters to house prospective tenants based on their birth sex alone.



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