California teams could go on Cinderella runs through March Madness

California Love is displayed throughout the NCAA men’s basketball tournament this year, with UCLA leading the way.

However, there are some surprising California sleepers experts predict can have a Cinderella run and bust brackets along the way. California Baptist, Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s College have all earned bids to the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The California Baptist Lancers are going to the big dance for the first time. The Santa Clara Broncos are going for the first time in a long time; their last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 1996, when they were led by Steve Nash.

For the Saint Mary’s Gaels, it’s their fifth straight appearance, but they have been a first- or second-round exit each year since 2022.

All three hope to make this the year of unpredictability. Here’s what the experts think of their chances in the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

More NCAA: March Madness bracket predictions, from hot takes to upsets to Final Four picks

No. 10 Santa Clara could repeat history, 30 years later

The last time Santa Clara made an appearance in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, no player on the current roster was born. It was 1996 and it was led by some Canadian kid named Steve Nash. The Broncos earned a No. 10-seed and upset No. 7-seed Maryland, before losing in the second round.

It’s deja vu, three decades later — the Broncos earned the No. 10-seed and will go against the No. 7 seed. This year it’s Kentucky. USA TODAY Sports’ Blake Toppmeyer believes they have the repertoire to break the Wildcats’ hearts.

Toppmeyer: “This is Santa Clara’s first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years. It got here with an offense that can score 80-plus points with relative ease. Two wins against Saint Mary’s proved Santa Clara’s mettle. Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek, a former Kentucky assistant under Rick Pitino, has won NCAA Tournament games with three different schools.”

The Broncos can score with the best of them, led by sophomore Christian Hammond with nearly 16 points per outing. Kentucky has been a team that has had to play hero ball after falling behind in games it probably shouldn’t have.

The last time Kentucky faced a West Coast Conference team it suffered a 35-point loss to Gonzaga, which Santa Clara lost to in the WCC Tournament final on March 10.

The Broncos and Wildcats face each other beginning at 12:15 p.m. ET (9:15 a.m. PT) on Friday, March 20.

Will No. 13-seed California Baptist have first-timer’s luck?

The California Baptist Lancers are a private school in Riverside, but there’s nothing private about their game. They dominated the Western Athletic Conference, going 25-8, including 15-0 at home.

The Lancers were led by Compton native Dominique Daniels Jr. Their 5-foot-10, senior guard was one of the best scorers in all of college basketball during the 2025-26 season. Daniels averaged 23.2 points on 43.7% shooting, which included a couple 40-point games.

CBS Sports’ Owen O’Brien has the Lancers on upset watch as a potential Cinderella team in this year’s tournament.

O’Brien: “CBU is making its NCAA Tournament debut after a strong finish to the year, winning 15 of its last 17 and taking the WAC Tournament. It has one of the nation’s best scorers in Dominique Daniels Jr. (23.2 ppg), who led the WAC in points and is averaging 32 ppg over his last three games. Cal Baptist will see No. 4 Kansas in the first round, and the game will take place in San Diego — just 100 miles from CBU’s campus. Additionally, there have been seven 13-seeds to upset 4-seeds over the last seven NCAA Tournaments.”

No. 13 California Baptist plays No. 4 Kansas at 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on Friday, March 20.

How far will Saint Mary’s go this year?

Saint Mary’s is in an interesting position at a No. 7-seed, as it prepares to face No. 10 Texas A&M.

They Gaels lost twice to Santa Clara, a No. 10-seed in the bracket. This is their fifth straight tournament appearance but they’ve had first- or second-round exits each year since 2022.

And this season, they are expected to do much of the same. CBS Sports’ Gene Menez believes they suffer another first-round exit, losing to the Aggies, despite Texas A&M going on a downslide to end the season, losing seven of its last 11 games.

Menez: “Thursday’s game will be a contrast of styles. A&M plays at the 29th fastest tempo in the country (70.5 possessions per 40 minutes), which is a major reason the team averages 87.7 points per game (ninth in the nation). Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s ranks 298th in tempo (65.2 possessions per 40). Despite playing at a slower tempo — or perhaps because of it — the Gaels have a more efficient offense than A&M, averaging 120.4 points per 100 possessions to the Aggies’ 119.7.”

For what it’s worth, the Gaels advanced to the second round last year, beating Vanderbilt before losing to Alabama.

No. 7 Saint Mary’s goes up against No. 10 Texas A&M at 7:35 p.m. ET (4:35 p.m. PT) on Thursday, March 19.