California ranks 2nd-least predictable US housing market

“Bubble Watch” digs into tendencies that will point out financial and/or housing market troubles forward.

Buzz: California is the second-least predictable housing market within the nation.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet created a home-price consistency scorecard utilizing Federal Housing Finance Company’s quarterly indexes monitoring state performances over 47 years. This math checked out 12-month worth modifications since 1975 — the share of dropping durations, volatility in worth modifications and state rankings, and common positive aspects.

The pattern

Solely Connecticut ranked much less predictable than California over the previous 47 years. Then got here Rhode Island, Hawaii and Vermont.

Most predictable? Kentucky, then North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas and Nebraska.

As for California’s arch-rivals: Texas was 14th most predictable and Florida was No. 26.

The dissection

How scorching has the market been?

No state has had a year-over-year worth decline in 24 quarters. This six years of upswings tops the 23-quarter steak from the bubble period of the mid-2000s.

Bear in mind, costs have fallen on common 17% of the time since 1975. And California ranks fourth-worst for such declines, with dips in 25% of its 12-month performances since 1975.

Additionally, my spreadsheet discovered California had the wildest swings in its nationwide rating among the many states. And it ranked fourth-worst for worth volatility.

The excellent news for Californians is that householders have been well-compensated for the rollercoaster experience with a median 7.1% annual worth appreciation over 47 years — second-best among the many states.

How bubbly?

On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble right here) to 5 bubbles (five-alarm warning) … FIVE BUBBLES!

Want I say greater than California’s 21.3% acquire within the yr resulted in June was the thirteenth greatest enhance in 47 years?

And you may develop the anxieties nationally, as that oversized leap ranked solely No. 17 among the many states.

The highest gainer was Florida at 30%, then Arizona at 29%, and Tennessee at 27%. The smallest positive aspects have been DC’s 11%, adopted by North Dakota at 13% and Louisiana at 13.5%.

Politically talking

Because it’s a midterm election yr, we are going to take partisan slices of the rankings — defining “blue” states as those that supported President Biden vs. “pink” those that didn’t as “pink” states.

The spreadsheet discovered pink states have extra predictable house values (a median No. 19 rank vs. No. 33 in blue states); had higher returns prior to now yr (20.3% common positive aspects vs. 19.5%); however had smaller long-term costs will increase (4.5% a yr since 1975 vs. 5.5%).

Jonathan Lansner is enterprise columnist for the Southern California Information Group. He will be reached at jlansner@scng.com