Arizona
What 2024 election results are saying about the state of Arizona politics
PHOENIX – Election workers are on the clock Sunday night counting tens of thousands of ballots.
It comes as Arizona’s Supreme Court refused to extend the deadline for curing ballots. The decision brings the state closer to finalizing the election and the still undecided races.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, is giving his take on the results we’re seeing so far, and what they say about the state of politics in the Grand Canyon state, and across the country.
“I think Arizonans in general want to hear results sooner,” Noble said.
Polls closed in Arizona five days ago, and yet some races have still not been decided.
Arizona’s choice for president went along with the majority of the country as our 11 electoral votes officially went to president-elect Donald Trump on Nov. 9 after the AP made the projection.
Noble says Trump sitting atop the ticket likely helped the GOP maintain control of the state House.
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“If Harris, for example, let’s say she won the state by, let’s say, a point or two, I think you could’ve seen one or both chambers flipping. I think a lot of it was beholden to the top of the ticket, so Trump kind of saved the Republicans’ butts this year,” Noble said.
One major race where this formulation doesn’t appear to have held up is the battle between Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake for the U.S. Senate.
Noble says this was more of a candidate quality issue.
“Kari Lake. She’s always referred to as the Donald Trump of Arizona, and it’s true and it’s not. She has all the baggage Trump has, but none of the policy wins or the upsides and wins that he has. She really had an image problem. So, for example, on our polling, plus exit polls, 2 to 1 Republicans were defecting against Lake compared to Trump,” Noble said.
Overall, Noble says this election and its results signal a larger reshuffling in the way Americans vote.
“The higher income folks are actually trending toward Democrats and the lower income folks are actually trending toward Republicans, with the middle class currently trending to Republicans. What you’re also seeing is these non-white voters, so African Americans, Hispanics, Latinos, Asians, ect., you’re seeing them. They used to vote as ethnic blocks, right, so they would just vote based on their ethnicity, but what they’re doing now is ideologically sorting,” Noble explained.
Noble also shared some insight into some of the propositions.
He said it’s clear ranked choice voting is not, as he says, ready for prime time as Prop 140 was defeated here and similar efforts failed in a handful of other states as well.
As for the immigration prop and the abortion prop both passing, he says these were top issues for the GOP and Democrats, respectively.
Arizona prison chief says incident was a fight, not riot
The incident was a gang-related altercation, not a riot, and staff were not targeted, officials said.
A large-scale fight at the Arizona State Prison Complex–Eyman in Florence, left multiple people injured and at least one person in critical condition, officials said.
Reports of the fight went out on April 26, and according to the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation and Reentry, the “inmate-on-inmate altercation” was related to gang violence, a news release said.
Ryan Thornell, director of the department, spoke about what he classified as a “disturbance” on April 28 to reporters. He confirmed the incident left several incarcerated people injured and required some to be taken to off-site hospitals.
“Roughly a third of them have come back treated,” Thornell said, adding that about 10 people remained hospitalized as of April 28, with all of them in stable condition except for one person who was still in critical condition.
Thornell did not give an exact number of people involved but described the incident as “sizable.”
He said the fight started in the kitchen and spilled into other areas, contributing to the number of people involved. Thornell said what happened was not a riot and that officials would not classify it that way, because at no time was the motivation to destroy property, and the staff was not targeted.
“It started out as a fight and it continued as a fight and it ended as a fight,” Thornell said.
Executive director of the Arizona Correctional Peace Officers Association, Carlos Garcia, called what happened at the prison a “full-blown riot” and the largest in decades.
He also claimed one inmate was left brain dead and that helicopters and ambulances were used to transport the injured.
Garcia and prison reform advocates have raised concerns that high-risk inmates may have been housed in a lower-security unit through classification overrides, similar to issues cited in the 2025 case involving Ricky Wassenaar, who was moved from maximum security to close custody and was later charged in the deaths of three incarcerated men at a Tucson prison.
Thornell said the incident was not related to classification overrides, adding that the people involved were housed in a close-custody unit and were “appropriately” placed.
He also pushed back on concerns about staffing, saying it “had nothing to do with the incident” and that correctional officer vacancy rates are currently below 13% statewide.
The Arizona Cardinals’ top draft pick is favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The Arizona Cardinals believe they got a special player in running back Jeremiyah Love. Drafted third overall last week, many considered him the best player in the draft.
That belief is bleeding into the betting markets when it comes to Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Love is the favorite to win the award at +250, a little ahead of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, the new quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. Mendoza’s odds are +350.
Behind them is Tennessee Titans receiver Carnell Tate at +500, New Orleans Saints receiver Jordyn Tyson at +600, Seattle Seahawks running back Jadarian Price at +750 and Philadelphia Eagles receiver Makai Lemon at +950.
Even Cardinals quarterback Carson Beck, selected in the third round, is a dark horse at +1500.
At +250 odds, Love is considered to have a 28.57% chance at winning the award, about 6% more likely than Mendoza’s 22.22% implied odds.
A running back has not won Offensive Rookie of the Year since Saquon Barkley did in 2018, but Love was the highest running back drafted since Barkley was taken second overall that year.
Since then, it has been quarterbacks or receivers winning the award.
We will see what sort of role Love will have in a pretty crowded running back room and how productive he can be on a team that is expected to struggle.
Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire’s Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple podcasts.
The decision to cut the Big 12 Softball Tournament field down to eight this season means there’s a lot to play for in the final week of conference games. While Houston completed its season due to a conference bye the final week, nine of the 10 teams that will play next week can still improve or damage their postseason situations in the last series of the regular season.
Texas Tech’s sweep of Arizona State over the penultimate weekend secured the top seed in the conference tournament. While several other teams are secure in the knowledge that they will be included in the league tourney, none of the other nine teams have a seed wrapped up.
The four teams behind the Red Raiders could all technically end up with the No. 2 seed in Oklahoma City two weeks from now. Arizona’s sweep of Houston gave the Wildcats a 15-6 record and (most importantly) a .714 winning percentage to retain the second position in the league rankings. Winning percentage is especially important because one of the teams hunting Arizona has a tie and has a very remote chance of surpassing Arizona based on that tie.
The club with the best shot to overtake the Wildcats is the Oklahoma State Cowgirls. OSU is on a five-game winning streak, including a sweep of Baylor in Waco, Tex. over the weekend. That gives the Cowgirls a 14-7 Big 12 record and .667 winning percentage.
The advantage for the Cowgirls is that they’ve already taken two of three games from Arizona this year. They only need to tie the Wildcats’ winning percentage to get the second seed.
OSU hosts No. 4 Kansas (13-8/.619) to wind up the regular season. Arizona goes to No. 7 Utah (8-12-1/.405). OSU needs to win one more game than the Wildcats the final weekend to take over that second spot. The Cowgirls do not control their own destiny. If Arizona sweeps Utah on the road, the Wildcats will stay in second no matter what anyone else does.
Both the Wildcats and the Cowgirls are trying to hold off the Jayhawks and the UCF Knights, who sit at No. 3 and No. 4 heading into the final weekend. KU has a better chance to get to No. 2 than UCF does, but both have an outside chance. Kansas also controls its own destiny as far as getting to No. 3 in the standings.
If the Jayhawks go 2-1 or better in Stillwater, they will leapfrog Oklahoma State for third. A 2-1 weekend would tie the two teams on record and winning percentage, but KU would have the tiebreaker based on head-to-head results.
To get to second, Kansas must win at least two games at Oklahoma State and finish with a better winning percentage than Arizona. If Kansas and Arizona end up tied, the current Big 12 tiebreaker for conference seeding falls heavily on winning percentage and runs allowed if two teams don’t meet head-to-head:
- Head-to-head
- Winning percentage versus common conference opponents
- Runs allowed divided by innings pitched of teams ties
- Runs allowed divided by innings pitched in all conference games against common conference opponents
- Runs allowed divided by innings pitched versus common conference opponents occupying the highest position in the final regular standings
- NCAA RPI
- Coin toss
A tiebreaker between UA and KU would fall to the second tiebreaker with common opponents being Oklahoma State, Baylor, Utah, ASU, BYU, and Houston. Prior to the trip to Utah, Arizona has a record of 14-4 against the common opponents (including the Cowgirls), giving it a winning percentage of .778. Prior to taking on OSU, Kansas has a record of 12-6 against common opponents (including Utah) for a winning percentage of .667.
The Wildcats could end up with a winning percentage as high as .810 against common opponents with a sweep. At 2-1 in Salt Lake City, that drops to .762. At 1-2, they would have a winning percentage of .714. If the Utes sweep, it would drop to .667.
The Jayhawks could end with a winning percentage of .714 against common opponents with a sweep in Stillwater. A 2-1 series would drop that to .667. Anything less, and they cannot even tie Arizona based on the second tiebreaker.
What it comes down to is that the Jayhawks need to win at least two games against the Cowgirls and have Arizona lose at least two to Utah to have a chance to get to the third tiebreaker or overcome the Wildcats. If they can get to the third tiebreaker, though, they have a very good chance of leaping Arizona based on superior pitching numbers.
The third tiebreaker comes down to runs allowed divided by innings pitched. Arizona currently sits at 0.91 runs/IP against Big 12 competition. Kansas has allowed 0.68 runs/IP in league play.
The problem for the Jayhawks is that it’s tough to know how good they actually are. They are in the same position Iowa State was in last year. The Cyclones finished third in the regular season, but they did not face Texas Tech or Arizona, which finished first and second. KU will face neither of those teams this season, so they are also missing the top two teams in the standings. All of its wins come against the bottom seven teams in the league and all of its series wins come against the bottom six. They were one of only two Big 12 teams to drop any games to Houston this year.
UCF is in a similar position as KU if it wants to help its cause, but it has an easier opponent. Its final series is against Iowa State, which is one of the teams in danger of not making the eight-team conference tournament at all.
The Knights need to sweep ISU and have Arizona get swept by Utah to overtake the Wildcats. While the two teams would both end with 15 wins in that scenario, UCF would have a higher conference winning percentage because one of its games ended in a tie. It would end with a 15-8-1 record for a .646 conference winning percentage. Arizona would end 15-9 with a .625 winning percentage in this situation.
This is the only way UCF can move past Arizona. The tied game against Utah earlier in the season means the Knights cannot end up knotted with any other team in the standings.
As for who Arizona would face in the opening round of the conference tournament, that doesn’t just depend on where it ends up. The final two teams in the field are still up for grabs with No. 6 Baylor (9-12/.429), No. 7 Utah (8-12-1/.405), No. 8 ASU (8-13/.381), No. 9 Iowa State (8-13/.381), and No. 10 BYU (7-14/.333) still battling to get in and secure seeds. If the Wildcats finish second, they will play the 7 seed.
The convoluted scenarios have each of the five teams teams facing at least outside chances of climbing to sixth or missing the tournament. Many of those scenarios require falling back on the third tiebreaker, and in some cases, the team that seems like it would come out on top in the third tiebreaker currently does not. For example, the third tiebreaker between Baylor and ASU goes to the Bears, which have allowed 0.71 runs/IP in conference play compared to 0.94 for the Sun Devils.
While it may seem anticlimactic to have the conference regular season champion decided before the final weekend, the competition throughout the rest of the standings means there’s a lot to follow the last week of the regular season.
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