A pair of Big 12 rivals meet up in one of college football’s two games involving ranked teams on the same field, as No. 20 Arizona travels to No. 14 Kansas State in a battle of Wildcats on Friday.

While it’s a matchup of Big 12 teams, it’s not actually a Big 12 conference game thanks to a scheduling technicality, but it’s still a good litmus test to see where these teams are in what figures to be a more competitive league championship race later on.

Arizona played close against Northern Arizona a week ago as its vaunted passing attack led by Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan didn’t produce like it usually does, but it came out with the 21-10 victory.

Likewise for Kansas State, which held off an upset-minded Tulane team on the road last weekend, needing some timely defensive plays to get out of New Orleans unscathed and undefeated.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Arizona and Kansas State compare in this Week 3 football game.

So far, the simulations are siding pretty definitively with the home team in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Arizona by a projected score of 35 to 25 and will win the game outright by an expected 9.3 points.

The model gives Kansas State a strong 72 percent chance of victory in the matchup.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Kansas State is listed as a 7.5 point favorite against Arizona, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 59.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -255 and for Arizona at +205.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools also favor Kansas State to hold serve at home against Arizona.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State comes out the projected winner in 73.2 percent of the computer’s simulations, while Arizona emerged triumphant in the remaining 26.8 percent of sims.

The index favors Kansas State to be 9.5 points better than Arizona on the same field in both teams’ current composition, also enough to cover the spread.

Kansas State is projected to win 9.1 games this season and sits in second-place among Big 12 teams with a 27.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Arizona is ninth in the Big 12 with a 5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff as the computers cooled off on its expectations after last week’s game, with the Wildcats expected to win 7 games.

When: Fri., Sept. 13
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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The suspect, 73-year-old Thomas Edward Kain, was trying to leave the Elks Lodge #2349 in Apache Junction around 8:30 pm when he crashed his vehicle through the building. He then barreled over a row of occupied tables, leaving several injured.

The truck came to a halt after it was completely inside the lodge. The video surveillance showed that its windshield was splashed with drinks.

Several people were rushed to hospitals

According to the website of City of Apache Junction, AZ, “Ten individuals were transported to multiple hospitals by ambulance, while fifteen others received treatment on-site for minor injuries. At least five additional individuals drove themselves to local hospitals for further medical evaluation. Currently, one person remains in critical but stable condition, with ongoing improvements to their health.”

Kain was charged with 12 counts of aggravated assault, 17 counts of endangerment, and DUI – slightest degree. The website said that more charges may follow, and blood test results, which are yet to be released, will determine the “extent of alcohol impairment.”

“In response to the unfortunate incident at the Apache Junction Elks Lodge last night, we want to express our heartfelt sympathy and support for all those impacted,” the club said in a statement. “Our thoughts are with the victims and their families, and we want to recognize the tireless efforts of the first responders who assisted.”

The Apache Junction Police Department is working with the Arizona Department of Liquor Licenses and Control to investigate the incident. The City of Apache Junction, AZ website highlighted the dangers of driving under the influence of alcohol.

“Impaired driving drastically reduces reaction times, decision-making abilities, and motor skills, putting everyone on the road at risk. We are fortunate that, despite the severity of this incident, no lives were lost. However, the outcome could have been far worse,” it said.

The Texas Rangers took it on the chin for the second consecutive day in the Arizona desert.

The Arizona Diamondbacks swept the two-game series with a 14-4 win, jumping all over starter Cody Bradford, scoring eight runs on nine hits, including three home runs, two doubles, and a triple in Bradford’s 3 2/3 innings, which is tied for his shortest start this season.

The D-Backs had 16 hits, including five home runs, seven doubles, and a triple, and built leads of 5-0 after two innings and 8-2 after four.

Chase Anderson didn’t fare much better than Bradford. After taking over for the final out in the fourth, Anderson was charged with four runs on four hits, including three doubles and a homer, and a walk in 2 1/3 innings. Adrian Del Castillo’s three-run homer in the fifth against Anderson gave Arizona an 11-4 lead.

Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, and Adolis García each had two hits to make up six of Texas’ nine hits in the game. Semien added a solo homer in the third and Garcia had an RBI double in the fifth that scored Semien. The Rangers were 3 for 9 with runners in scoring position and left nine runners on base.

The Rangers allowed 14 or more runs for the third time this season and first since allowing 14 runs on June 17 against the Mets. Texas allowed a season high 15 runs at Dodgers Stadium on June 11. Texas pitching allowed 16 or more hits for the fifth time, and first since allowing 16 hits to Oakland on Sept. 1.

Former Rangers starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who played pivotal role in the club’s 2023 World Series championship, pitched three scoreless innings and earned his first save of 2024,

Rangers top-rated prospect right-hander Kumar Rocker makes his MLB debut in the series opener against the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.18) at 8:40 p.m. Wednesday.

You can follow Stefan Stevenson on X @StefanVersusTex.

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