ESPN FPI rankings update: Arizona State’s predicted win total is wild

ESPN released its updated Football Power Index (FPI) rankings on Sunday, and it includes some head-scratching predictions for Arizona State.

ESPN claims its FPI rankings are “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”

Arizona State (4-1) is coming off a thrilling 35-31 victory over Kansas and is one of the biggest surprises in college football after going 3-9 last season.

Consider ESPN’s algorithm unimpressed.

The Sun Devils are ranked No. 53 in the FPI, three spots behind Kansas (1-5). Their projected win total is 7.1, which means they’re expected to go 3-4 the rest of the season. They are ranked No. 12 in the Big 12, ahead of only Arizona, TCU, Baylor and Houston.

Arizona State’s remaining schedule includes No. 16 Utah (home), Cincinnati (away), Oklahoma State (away), Central Florida (home), No. 18 Kansas State (away), No. 14 BYU (home) and Arizona (away).

There is a lot riding on Friday’s matchup with Utah. If the Sun Devils can upset the Utes, it potentially sets them up for an eight or nine-win season. Road games at Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Kansas State will be tough, but picking off at least one of them is realistic.

It stands to reason Arizona State could go into its regular season finale at Arizona – in the game formerly known as the Territorial Cup – with an 8-3 or 7-4 record.

What’s your prediction?