Arizona vs. UCLA at No. 1 and other 2022-23 Pac-12 preseason predictions

Because the 2022-23 males’s school basketball season attracts nearer, ESPN.com’s panel of consultants is predicting the order of end for the nation’s prime conferences. Having already seemed on the mid-majors and the American, the main target now shifts to the Pac-12.

There’s uncertainty forward for this league. With each UCLA and USC set to bolt for the Massive Ten in 2024 and stories that others colleges inside the convention is also trying to transfer, it is unclear what the Pac-12 will appear like within the coming years, or if it may maintain its standing among the many energy conferences.

This season in males’s basketball, nonetheless, it faces a well-recognized problem within the nationwide panorama: It is a top-heavy convention with a few groups that appear able to second-weekend potential. The final time that occurred — 2020-2021 — two Pac-12 (Oregon State, USC) groups reached the Elite Eight, and UCLA solely missed its probability to play within the title recreation due to a 30-foot buzzer beater from Gonzaga within the Last 4.

This league would possibly lack final 12 months’s star energy, however the returning veterans ought to contribute to the collective postseason potential of the whole league.

Discover extra preseason evaluation right here.

Pac-12 2022-23 superlatives

Participant of the 12 months

Medcalf: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA
Borzello: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA
Gasaway: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA
Lunardi: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA

Newcomer of the 12 months

Medcalf: Amari Bailey, UCLA
Borzello: Amari Bailey, UCLA
Gasaway: Amari Bailey, UCLA
Lunardi: Amari Bailey, UCLA

Pac-12 2022-23 roundtable

In his first season as a head coach, Tommy Lloyd gained the Pac-12 championship and earned Arizona a No. 1 seed within the NCAA match. How can this season’s squad repeat that success?

Lunardi: Not solely did Arizona win the Pac-12 unexpectedly, not solely did the Wildcats seize an NCAA regional No. 1 seed, they have been the second general seed — trailing solely Gonzaga, the place Lloyd spent the earlier twenty years driving shotgun to Mark Few. One might argue Lloyd is the primary man to ever assemble the nation’s prime two groups in the identical season.

The 2022-23 Wildcats is not going to be as individually gifted as final season’s, however a half dozen guys who performed 20-plus minutes return. That is a number of expertise from a 33-win workforce, so it isn’t unreasonable to as soon as once more attain the second weekend. This time, although, they will be the hunter as an alternative of the hunted prime seed. And that form of vengeance can be very candy certainly.

Gasaway: Lloyd introduced a little bit of Gonzaga south final 12 months within the type of extremely correct team-wide 2-point capturing: Arizona linked on 58% of its tries contained in the arc in Pac-12 play. That stat will take a success with Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko gone, however not an excessive amount of. Azuolas Tubelis remains to be round, as are Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson. As well as, Texas switch Courtney Ramey will provide assist from the perimeter. Arizona and UCLA are the co-favorites for the league.

Medcalf: Primarily based on Mathurin’s spotlight reel performs from the Indiana Pacers’ NBA preseason video games, the Wildcats will certainly miss his bounce and sheer expertise. Total, 45.1 PPG (Mathurin, Koloko, Terry and Justin Kier) from final season is gone. You’ll be able to’t recoup that. However I feel Ramey, who completed with a 13.1% turnover price in Massive 12 motion final season, is usually a succesful ball handler for the Pac-12 title contenders. Nonetheless, a squad with Kerr Kriisa (9.7 PPG) and Ramey within the backcourt, and Tubelis (13.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Larsson (Pac-12 sixth man of the 12 months) and Ballo, is stacked sufficient to earn a powerful seed on Choice Sunday — assuming Arizona can keep its defensive success (twenty first in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom final season).

Borzello: Arizona was actually elite offensively most of final season, with Lloyd bringing in a faster-paced system predicated on sharing the ball and scoring at will across the rim. After all, he had three top-35 NBA draft picks to assist. So a few of final 12 months’s complementary items might want to tackle larger roles. These across the program count on a breakout marketing campaign from Larsson, and Ballo continues to enhance down low. Whether or not Arizona can push UCLA for a league title will seemingly come right down to the younger additions: freshmen Dylan Anderson and Henri Veesaar, and seldom-used returnee Adama Bal.

UCLA had excessive hopes coming into final season, however could not fairly meet them, due to a myriad of causes, together with accidents and COVID pauses. Can the Bruins bounce again this season, and what do they should do to go far?

Gasaway: How fickle is that this factor known as school basketball? The Bruins have been up three on North Carolina within the Candy 16, with just a little greater than two minutes remaining. So maybe UCLA was nearer than we truly suppose, in reaching back-to-back Last Fours. In any occasion, Jaquez, Tyger Campbell and fellow returnee Jaylen Clark will say howdy to nationwide top-20 recruits Amari Bailey and Adem Bona. With Campbell dealing with the ball, the Bruins could crush the remainder of the Pac-12 in shot quantity as soon as once more in 2023.

Medcalf: Mick Cronin might be residing good it doesn’t matter what occurs after UCLA’s Last 4 (2021) and Candy Sixteen (2022) runs. However a wholesome Jaquez (13.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) — who battled ankle accidents all through 2021-22 — provides UCLA one in all school basketball’s most full gamers. UCLA dedicated turnovers on simply 11.5% of its possessions with Campbell on the ground final season, per hooplens.com. Bona and Bailey are projected first-round picks. I feel the key about UCLA this 12 months is that Cronin may need his finest Bruins workforce. If that is true, effectively, everyone knows he is accomplished extra with much less.

Borzello: I agree. The Bruins ought to be capable of generate momentum extra constantly, even with out Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard. Jaquez is a preseason All-American, Campbell is among the finest level guards within the nation, Clark averaged 14.8 factors and 6.4 rebounds throughout a five-game February stretch as a starter. If Bailey and Bona are certainly the game-changers they’re anticipated to be, UCLA is the clear Pac-12 favourite.

Lunardi: UCLA struggled to satisfy expectations final 12 months partially as a result of mentioned expectations have been unreasonable, primarily based extra upon its 5 2021 NCAA match wins than what had been a largely mediocre common season. The reality figured to fall someplace within the center, which is strictly what occurred final season. It’s seemingly higher positioned for a Last 4 run in 2023. The 2 finest gamers are again together with greater than sufficient rising expertise to maintain the great occasions going. With Arizona dropping the factor of shock, I like UCLA to regain its Pac-12 crown and make a really deep NCAA run this March.

A great variety of coaches within the Pac-12 might be below scrutiny this season: Mike Hopkins (Washington), Jerod Haase (Stanford), Bobby Hurley (Arizona), to call just a few. Who’s in probably the most hassle, and the way can they save their seat?

Borzello: Washington had a surprisingly strong 2021-22 marketing campaign, ending 17-15 general and 11-9 within the league, however have nonetheless solely been to 1 NCAA match in Hopkins’ 5 seasons on the helm. There’s some optimism surrounding its incoming transfers.

Arizona State gained seven of its ultimate eight regular-season video games, and athletic director Ray Anderson gave Hurley a vote of confidence for one more 12 months. That is one other workforce relying on an inflow of newcomers — and a wholesome Marcus Bagley, who has solely performed 15 video games in two seasons as a result of damage.

Lunardi: Together with the canceled 2020 match, Hurley has three NCAA match appearances (no wins), Hopkins one and Haase none in 18 combination seasons. Solely Hopkins has gained an NCAA recreation (2019), after additionally capturing the league crown. As a result of his “excessive” was the very best and his fall the furthest, his seat might be the most well liked. Among the many three, he additionally has the worst workforce this season, that means his probability to finally succeed Jim Boeheim at Syracuse has seemingly come and gone.

Haase has one of the best workforce of the trio, and figures to experience the NCAA bubble all season. Hurley has one other NIT-level workforce, which can or could not work for the powers-that-be in Tempe (who already fired their big-name soccer coach this 12 months).

Medcalf: Hopkins was Boeheim’s successor, which solely added weight to his arrival in Seattle. Now he has a 45-49 league report and a single NCAA match look. He’s additionally, like many different head coaches, battling intensified expectations from boosters, who can now play a extra crucial (and authorized) position in recruiting by way of title, picture and likeness (NIL) alternatives. And the switch portal has created the chance that any coach can manufacture a just-add-water squad with second-weekend potential. All this in a Seattle area that simply produced the No. 1 choose (Paolo Banchero) and different prime NBA expertise resembling Dejounte Murray, and it is simple to see how one other rocky season for Hopkins may lead this system’s prime brass to imagine another person might be higher.

Gasaway: It is doable Stanford, Arizona State and Washington will all be higher than they have been final 12 months. Conversely, might Oregon State look not a lot completely different than in 2021-22? Getting again to Haase: In 10 seasons as a head coach (with six coming at a major-conference program), he is reached one NCAA match. Then again, he did have his finest KenPom workforce in 2020. No luck.

Who or what are we not speaking practically sufficient about throughout the Pac-12?

Medcalf: Dana Altman has gained at the very least one recreation within the NCAA match seven occasions since 2012-13: He is reached the Candy 16 thrice, the Elite Eight as soon as and the Last 4 as soon as throughout that stretch. His 2022-23 Oregon Geese squad — led by veteran Will Richardson and McDonald’s All-American Kel’el Ware — has an opportunity so as to add to that stat. Altman’s consistency in a turbulent collegiate panorama over the past decade, which 4 Pac-12 titles, has additionally been missed.

Gasaway: Andy Enfield has taken USC to extra NCAA tournaments than any coach in program historical past. The Trojans might get there once more in 2023 with Drew Peterson, Boogie Ellis and promising newcomers Vincent Iwuchukwu and Tre White. Plus, the hoops gods owe USC a favor. Final 12 months a league that shot 33% on its 3s drained 39% of its tries towards the Trojans.

Borzello: It looks like we have been down this street earlier than, however Stanford seems to be a consensus preseason top-five workforce within the Pac-12 this season — which might probably outcome within the Cardinal’s first journey to the NCAA match since Jerod Haase took over in 2016. He is recruited successfully over the previous couple of years, however hasn’t been in a position to constantly put it collectively on the ground. However Spencer Jones and Michael Jones are elite shooters, and Harrison Ingram is a former five-star recruit and potential NBA participant. Can the Cardinal get environment friendly level guard play from Michael O’Connell or Isa Silva? It might decide their March destiny.

Lunardi: I am nonetheless having a tough time getting used to the thought of no Pac-12 illustration in L.A. — whether or not it is two years from now or twenty years.

That mentioned, it is excessive time the league will get off its you-know-what and does one thing about San Diego State. The Aztecs can be no worse than the third finest workforce within the league this 12 months. They might not be in L.A., however they’re the closest (solely?) main program obtainable. As an alternative of dithering, the Pac-12 must be as aggressive as doable. I’d add SDSU yesterday after which make no matter preparations are essential to swipe Gonzaga as a particular basketball-only member.

It is not going to occur, but when different conferences can suppose and act exterior the field, why not the Pac-12?

Pac-12 2022-23 convention champion predictions