Arizona
Arizona vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert college football model
A pair of Big 12 rivals meet up in one of college football’s two games involving ranked teams on the same field, as No. 20 Arizona travels to No. 14 Kansas State in a battle of Wildcats on Friday.
While it’s a matchup of Big 12 teams, it’s not actually a Big 12 conference game thanks to a scheduling technicality, but it’s still a good litmus test to see where these teams are in what figures to be a more competitive league championship race later on.
Arizona played close against Northern Arizona a week ago as its vaunted passing attack led by Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan didn’t produce like it usually does, but it came out with the 21-10 victory.
Likewise for Kansas State, which held off an upset-minded Tulane team on the road last weekend, needing some timely defensive plays to get out of New Orleans unscathed and undefeated.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Arizona and Kansas State compare in this Week 3 football game.
So far, the simulations are siding pretty definitively with the home team in this matchup.
SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Arizona by a projected score of 35 to 25 and will win the game outright by an expected 9.3 points.
The model gives Kansas State a strong 72 percent chance of victory in the matchup.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.
Kansas State is listed as a 7.5 point favorite against Arizona, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 59.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -255 and for Arizona at +205.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…
Other analytic tools also favor Kansas State to hold serve at home against Arizona.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Kansas State comes out the projected winner in 73.2 percent of the computer’s simulations, while Arizona emerged triumphant in the remaining 26.8 percent of sims.
The index favors Kansas State to be 9.5 points better than Arizona on the same field in both teams’ current composition, also enough to cover the spread.
Kansas State is projected to win 9.1 games this season and sits in second-place among Big 12 teams with a 27.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Arizona is ninth in the Big 12 with a 5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff as the computers cooled off on its expectations after last week’s game, with the Wildcats expected to win 7 games.
When: Fri., Sept. 13
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network
–
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
–
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
Last night was the seventh consecutive game where the Diamondbacks were held to six hits or fewer. That ties a franchise record, last done in April 2022, and previously in August 2011. The team’s .477 OPS over that time is actually lower than either streak, though due to the efforts of the pitching staff, Arizona are actually 3-4 during the current run. They went 2-5 in 2022, and 1-6 in 2011. There hasn’t been a longer streak in the majors since the Angels went nine in April last year. In the National League, the Pirates went eight in June 2023. And in case you are wondering, the last team to reach a double-digit streak of games with 6 or fewer hits each time? The 1968 Astros reached 11, the year before the mound was lowered.
Let’s hope the D-backs render that moot and the offense comes to life a bit. The three runs added in garbage time last night, because one of the Rangers’ relievers couldn’t find the strike-zone, certainly padded Arizona’s resume. But they were more because of walks than hits. I’ve no doubt the team will hit better. They have batted .152 over the past week. It’s the second lowest in franchise history for a seven-game span. The only worse was April 7-15, 2022 when Arizona hit a remarkable .135, going 28-for-208 in that span. They actually scored three more runs than the current streak, mostly because they had twice as many home-runs (6-3).
Superintendent Tom Horne speaks at 2026 State of Education address
Arizona Superintendent Tom Horne spoke about controversial topics like DEI and ESAs at the State of Education address to the Legislature on Jan. 20, 2026.
Provided by Arizona Legislature
Democrats Brett Newby and Teresa Leyba Ruiz are set to make the argument to voters that they’re the best candidates to serve as Arizona’s top education official for the next four years.
The Arizona Republic will be streaming the Democratic debate for the Superintendent of Public Instruction race in partnership with the Arizona Media Association. The debate starts at 6 p.m. on May 13.
The office is currently held by Tom Horne, who will on May 14 face off in an Arizona Media Association debate against fellow Republican candidate Kimberly Yee, who currently serves as state treasurer.
Newby has worked as a behavioral analyst and professor, according to his campaign. He received a master’s degree in special education. His campaign has hinged on issues like downsizing the state’s controversial Empowerment Scholarship Program, retaining teachers and hiring more school counselors.
Ruiz attended Roosevelt Elementary School District and Phoenix Union High School District as a child before earning her Ph.D. from Arizona State University. She worked as a teacher at the middle and high school level before becoming president of Glendale Community College.
Like Newby, her campaign has also focused on the ESA program. She has also focused on advocating for more funding for public schools and supporting both rural and urban school districts. Ruiz has also spoken publicly about the teacher retention crisis as part of her campaign.
The last trip through the rotation for the Diamondbacks has been really good:
By that 5-game rolling average game score, it’s the best we’ve seen since a run around the All Star Break in 2022:
If we restrict to 5-game stretches with 5 different starters, it’s the best since September 2019:
So yeah, it’s been a while since we’ve had it this good. But this is still a far cry from the best in Diamondbacks history — the current stretch is only tied for 58th all-time. Here’s the best ever:
The good news is that there’s still quite a lot of room for Zac Gallen to improve on his last start, which had a Game Score of only 47. Doing so would give us an even better 5-game average. A score of better than 60 would surpass the 2022 streak; 69 or better would surpass 2018. Although it would take a career-best-tying 89 (reached against the Cubs on September 8, 2023) for him to pull the overall average into a tie for the franchise record. But any improvement on his last start would bring the rolling average up in the franchise rankings.
All records queried here are courtesy of Retrosheet.
-
Nebraska4 minutes agoNebraska QB has high expectations heading into 2026 season
-
Nevada10 minutes agoArbor View beats rival Centennial for 5A boys volleyball state title
-
New Hampshire16 minutes agoEmily (Em) Madeline Peters
-
New Jersey22 minutes agoOlder NJ residents consider leaving as costs rise, survey shows
-
New Mexico28 minutes agoNew Mexico elementary school partners with NASA and earns elite STEM certification
-
North Carolina34 minutes agoPolice: North Carolina man charged after high-speed chase in Erie County, arrested in the Town of Perry
-
North Dakota40 minutes agoND Emergency Services receives wildfire prevention award
-
Ohio46 minutes agoA unique project asks Ohioans to map Revolutionary War graves