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Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (54-44) play the 2nd game of their 3-game series at the Cincinnati Reds (53-46) Saturday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead series 1-0

The Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 games and 2-5 on their current road trip — which began after the All-Star break. Arizona did take 2 of 3 at Atlanta earlier in the week but were unable to complete a 3-game sweep, losing 7-5 on Thursday. The Diamondbacks lost Friday’s opener as +100 underdogs vs. the Reds 9-6. Entering Saturday, Arizona is 3 games back of the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Reds have won 3 straight to follow a 6-game losing streak. Rookie SS Matt McLain hit his 1st career grand slam in Friday’s win, helping the 2nd-place Reds move within 1½ games of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

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Diamondbacks at Reds projected starters

TBD vs. LHP Brandon Williamson

Arizona hasn’t officially named its starting pitcher, but all signs point to rookie RHP Brandon Pfaadt (0-3, 9.82 ERA). The Louisville native, who has been up and down between the D-backs and Triple-A Reno, is expected to get called up Saturday for his 7th start of the season for the big-league club. Through the 6 starts, he has a 1.87 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 25 2/3 innings.

  • Last start for Arizona: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 6-1 home loss to Tampa Bay Rays June 29
  • Last start for Reno: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 6-4 road win at Triple-A Las Vegas (A’s) Sunday
  • Last 2 starts for Arizona: 0-2, 17.47 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 15 H, 2 BB, 7 K

Williamson (1-2, 4.96 ERA), also a rookie, makes his 12th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 52 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home loss to San Francisco Giants Monday
  • Reds have lost 3 of his last 4 outings, but are 7-4 in his 11 starts
  • Home splits: 0-1, 4.96 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 6 starts

Diamondbacks at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Diamondbacks at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

The trends don’t look good for Arizona. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of their last 8 games and 10 of their last 14, while Pfaadt has struggled in the majors, allowing 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his 6 starts.

Meanwhile, the Reds have been very streaky recently. They won 6 of 7 games, then lost 6 in a row and now have won 3 straight. Despite an 0-1 showing in July, Williamson has been solid, posting a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts this month.

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The -120 line is not a bad bet at all to go with the Reds here, but their ATS record (mentioned below) makes the run line a good and more profitable bet.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Reds lead the majors with a 63-36 ATS mark and they enter Saturday on a 4-0 ATS win streak. They are 5-3 ATS since returning from the All-Star break.

The Diamondbacks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games but are 54-44 ATS overall and 30-18 ATS on the road — the away ATS record ranks 4th in the majors.

All 3 of Pfaadt’s MLB starts were by multiple runs — 6-2, 7-2 and 6-1. Plus, Arizona’s last 7 losses overall have been by 2 or more runs.

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BET REDS -1.5 (+150).

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Over/Under

Several trends point to an UNDER winner, here.

Four of the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games have had more than 11 total runs.

None of Pfaadt’s last 5 starts have reached 11 runs.

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Four of Williamson’s last 6 outings have had fewer than 11 runs.

Seven of the Reds’ last 9 have not reached 11 runs

BET UNDER 10.5 (+100).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Jess Root on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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