I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! Don’t forget about all of those who made the ultimate sacrifice for their country. This week’s Sunday Minefield is the Monday Minefield as I spent yesterday driving from Haines to Anchorage. I was there with some friends for Beerfest, which was awesome! Last week was fairly uneventful in Alaska politics due to the end of session. Legislators and staff were busy packing up and heading home from Juneau. Governor Mike Dunleavy’s (R – Alaska) Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference was held at the Dena’ina Center in Anchorage. And the June 1 filing deadline to run for the Legislature is just five days away.

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I just got back from Juneau for my sixth session in a row reporting on the Legislature. We will again be providing in-depth coverage for both the primary and general elections. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a donation system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive!

Finally Back from Juneau

The trip back from Haines marked my official end of session. I moved out of my Juneau apartment on May 18 and flew to Anchorage to bring all my clothes back. But I still had some equipment in my Juneau office and I needed to drive a car I bought in Juneau to Anchorage. I flew back to Juneau on Wednesday and crashed at my buddy Forrest Wolfe’s place. I spent Thursday packing up my Juneau office.

We were booked on the 7 am Friday morning ferry to Haines, so I tried to get some sleep. But I only ended up getting about four hours because we had wake up at 5 am so I could check-in and get my car in line. The ferry ride to Haines took about four hours but playing cribbage made it fly by. The ferry was packed and there were several familiar faces from the Capitol on board.

This was my second year in a row attending the Haines Beerfest. Last year I drove a buddy’s car from Anchorage to Haines, and took the ferry to Juneau after. I’m glad I was not relying on the ferry back to Juneau on Sunday because it was cancelled (see this week’s Loose Unit for more on that).

Last year I thought it wise to camp at a park in Haines where hundreds of attendees camp each year. In addition to the cold weather and rain, the boozing, drug usage, and music made that experience not great. So this year I thought better and booked a hotel room at the Aspen Hotel with my buddy Forrest Wolfe. That was a much wiser decision! Big shout out to the Aspen Hotel for being such a great place to stay. It was clean, the staff were awesome, and it didn’t cost an arm and a leg. If you plan on attending Beerfest next year, make sure to book a place in January.

We attended the Brewer’s Dinner on Friday night. Tickets for that sell out fast. This was my first time attending and it was definitely worth it. They served a five course meal and there was plenty of different beers to sample.

I also happened to meet Lee Ellis, a Republican running to replace Representative Laddie Shaw (R – Anchorage) – who is not seeking re-election. Ellis is the president of Midnight Sun Brewing and was in Haines for the Beerfest. He actually met his wife there in 2012. He ended up giving her a ride to Anchorage and they hit it off. They got married in 2016.

Two friends from Anchorage flew to Juneau on Friday night and took the Saturday morning ferry to Juneau. We all went to Beerfest on Saturday and had a great time. While it was not hot and sunny, it was not pouring rain like last year, so it felt like a win.

We all woke up and headed out of Haines around 11 am. With the exception of a delay at the Canadian border (lots of Canadians attend Beerfest so there was a long line) the drive back was uneventful. It was sunny most of the way and we saw four bears in Canada! We got back to Anchorage just before 1 am after a nearly 14 hour drive back. I look forward to not going back to Juneau until January. That is unless there is a special session… Which I think we are all hoping does not happen.

Filing Deadline Approaching

The June 1 filing deadline to run for one of 40 House or 10 Senate seats is fast approaching. A lot of incumbents remain unchallenged. All ten incumbent senators have filed for re-election, though there has been some speculation Senator Click Bishop (R – Fairbanks) may not end up running if he decides he wants to run for governor in 2026. Three incumbent representatives won’t be returning:

1. Representative Jennie Armstrong (D – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election. Democrat Carolyn Hall is the only person who has filed for that seat so far.
2. As referenced above, Representative Laddie Shaw is not seeking re-election.
3. Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski) is challenging Senator Jesse Bjorkman (R- Nikiski). I predict Carpenter wins that race.

I have heard rumblings that a few incumbent representatives who have filed for office are planning a last minute bait-and-switch. Recall that in 2022 then-Senator Tom Begich told no one of his plan to essentially give now-Senator Löki Tobin (D – Anchorage) his seat. Tobin had worked for Begich, so the scheme was not hard to pull off. Tobin filed right before the filing deadline and then Begich withdrew. It sounds like a few House members are planning to do something similar. I have never agreed with this, regardless of who  is doing it. It treats the seat like it belongs to the person and not the people living in the district. It gives the ordained ones an unfair advantage over others who may otherwise run.

Stay tuned for a Landmine article after June 1 that breaks down all the races and looks at how both bodies may end up organizing next year.

Other Happenings

A few people sent me the Alaska Watchman article claiming a National Park Service (NPS) employee had told some people to remove the American Flag from their truck in the park. I saw hundreds of people sharing the story and attacking the NPS superintendent. I found the whole thing far fetched and ignored it, figuring it was fabricated. I mean how in the hell would the NPS tell someone to remove an American Flag? It made no sense. Low and behold the NPS put out this statement yesterday. Sadly, even Senator Dan Sullivan (R – Alaska) was duped by this. Social media can be a really toxic sometimes.

This Week’s Loose Unit 

The Alaska Watchman were definitely in the running for this week’s designee. I mean that flag story was fucking loose. But they got beat out due to a development late in the week. This week’s Loose Unit is the Alaska Marine Highway System (AMHS), specifically the vessel LeConte. During the Haines Beerfest, the AMHS quietly put out a notice saying the LeConte would be out of service until May 29. This is the ferry that was supposed to take a ton of people and cars back to Juneau on Sunday afternoon.

It doesn’t get much looser than hundreds of people getting trapped in Haines during one of the busiest summer weekends. For the people who did not have to take a car back, many ended up buying a plane ticket back at the cost of $200-$250. Those with cars dealing with a nightmare. One person told me they were able to get on a day cruise to get back, which cost $165 per ticket. But her car is stuck in Haines until at least June 7. Her car was put on a waitlist and they can’t even guarantee when her will get back to her. Maximum loose. Another ferry is leaving Haines tonight but I hear it’s pretty full. Imagine the people who bought a ferry ticket months ago and ended up getting stranded in Haines. It’s really too bad the AMHS has become such an unreliable joke. Shame on all of those who have contributed to this.

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.

With days remaining before the filing deadline for Alaska’s legislative candidates, more than a third of the state’s 40 House members are poised to run for reelection unopposed.

Candidates have until June 1 to formally declare their intent to run with the Alaska Division of Elections. Some candidates wait until the last minute to file their paperwork. But in large swaths of the state, lawmakers could keep their seats with little or no competition.

The 2022 election led to the largest freshman class of lawmakers in two decades, with 20 out of 60 lawmakers new to the Alaska Legislature. The change was brought about in part by a one-a-decade redistricting process that put multiple incumbents in the same districts, and allowed newcomers to run outside the shadow of longtime politicians.

But 2024 is set to bring far less turnover. In the Senate, every incumbent up for reelection has indicated an intention to run again. In the House, only three lawmakers have indicated they don’t plan to attempt to keep their seats — creating limiting possibilities for open races.

Rep. Jennie Armstrong, D-Anchorage, whose Alaska residency was challenged during the 2022 election cycle, is not running again. Democrat Carolyn Hall is currently the only candidate registered to run for the seat.

Rep. Laddie Shaw, R-Anchorage, is retiring this year at the age of 75. Multiple candidates have indicated they could run for the seat, including Girdwood Republican Lee Ellis, a craft brewery president, and Ky Holland, a nonpartisan candidate and entrepreneur.

Rep. Ben Carpenter, R-Nikiski, is not seeking reelection to his House seat, instead running for a Senate seat against incumbent Sen. Jesse Bjorkman. The two Republicans differ on key issues, including education funding. Bjorkman voted to override Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s veto of a bill that would have permanently increased education spending, while Carpenter voted to sustain Dunleavy’s veto.

Two Republicans have registered to run for Carpenter’s seat — Ben Elam and John Hillyer, both of Soldotna. Elam is a member of the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly. Hillyer is a retired Air Force general and pilot.

Rep. Jesse Sumner, R-Wasilla, said Thursday that he was still undecided on whether he would run again, after winning the open seat in 2022 a four-way Republican race. He said he was weighing several factors, including his family and his business, and would likely decide whether to run close to the June 1 deadline.

Where incumbents do face challengers, several races promise repeats of 2022 match-ups.

Rep. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage, will again face Democrat Denny Wells. In 2022, McKay beat Wells in a ranked choice tabulation by seven votes, and the race is again expected to be very tight this year.

Rep. Stanley Wright, R-Anchorage, has indicated he plans to run again. So has Democrat Ted Eischeid, who in 2022 lost to Wright by 72 votes.

Rep. Dan Ortiz, I-Ketchikan, is again facing Republican challenger Jeremy Bynum. In 2022, Ortiz beat Bynum by 343 votes.

Rep. Julie Coulombe, R-Anchorage, will again face nonpartisan candidate Walter Featherly. In 2022, Featherly received over 45% of the vote but was bested by Coulombe in a ranked choice tabulation, after third-place Republican finisher Ross Bieling was eliminated.

Rep. Cliff Groh, D-Anchorage, will face Republican David Nelson. Groh bested Nelson in 2022, when Nelson garnered 44% of votes in the district.

Rep. Neal Foster, D-Nome, will face Tyler Ivanoff, a member of the Alaska Independence Party from Shishmaref. In 2022, Foster beat Ivanoff by 92 votes.

Sen. James Kaufman, R-Anchorage, will face Democrat Janice Park, who lost to Kaufman by more than 1,300 votes in 2022.

Sen. Kelly Merrick, R-Eagle River, is set to again face Republican Ken McCarty, along with two other Republican challengers. McCarty, a former House member, ran to the right of Merrick in 2022, and lost to her by more than 2,400 votes.

At stake for challengers hoping to unseat incumbents is control of the Alaska House and Senate. The Senate is governed by a 17-member bipartisan coalition that is likely — though not guaranteed — to survive the coming election. But in the House, Republicans narrowly gained control of the chamber in 2023 thanks to support from four non-Republican members of the Bush Caucus, which represents rural districts. Control of the chamber could easily flip, many say, if one or more seats currently held by Republicans are won by Democrats or nonpartisan candidates.

A single seat can make a difference in control of the Legislature and in the outcome of key legislation, as lawmakers learned earlier this year, when they failed by a single vote to override Dunleavy’s veto of the education bill.

In District 6, incumbent Rep. Sarah Vance, R-Homer, faces multiple challengers — including nonpartisan candidate Brent Johnson, who is currently the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly president. Announcing his legislative bid earlier this month, Johnson cited Vance’s decision not to override the governor’s veto of the education bill, which was broadly supported by public school educators across the state.

The announcement foreshadows what lawmakers have discussed behind closed doors ever since Dunleavy vetoed Senate Bill 140 earlier this year: that opposition to veto override vote would come back to haunt some Republican incumbents in their reelection bids.

Johnson said in an interview last week that he had first considered running for the Legislature more than a decade ago. But he enjoyed working on his local borough assembly and living in his Clam Gulch home.

“I didn’t want to change any of that. And I held that position consistent, even though people asked me to run several times, until the failure to override the governor’s veto of education funding,” Johnson said.

Vance is a conservative member of the current Republican-dominated majority, and a key backer of Dunleavy’s policies. Johnson said that if elected, he would look to join a bipartisan caucus, and to rebuke some of Dunleavy’s policies, including in the areas of education and fishery management.

The Kenai Peninsula is not the only place where the veto override vote has motivated some challengers to enter a race.

In District 40, which includes the North Slope and Northwest Alaska, Robyn Burke, an Utqiagvik Democrat, said she decided to run for the state House after Rep. Thomas Baker, R-Kotzebue, became one of several Republicans who initially voted in favor of the education legislation but later voted to sustain Dunleavy’s veto.

“Baker’s vote virtually assured deep education cuts that make it improbable to adequately staff our schools or provide basic materials,” Burke, the North Slope Borough School District board president, wrote in an op-ed that appeared in the Daily News.

Burke is one of two challengers who have so far indicated they plan to run against Baker, along with Kotzebue city mayor Saima Chase. Baker was appointed to the seat by Dunleavy after former Rep. Josiah Patkotak was elected North Slope Borough Mayor last year. Baker had not yet filed to run for the seat as of Thursday and did not respond to a message asking if he intended to. Earlier this month, Baker announced on social media that he would change his party affiliation from Republican to undeclared “to more effectively address the specific needs” of his constituents.

The primary election is set to take place on Aug. 20. Under Alaska’s election system, the top-four vote getters in every legislative race, regardless of political party, advance to the general election.

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Principal Securities Inc. bought a new stake in Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK – Free Report) during the 4th quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund bought 1,006 shares of the transportation company’s stock, valued at approximately $39,000.

Other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. International Assets Investment Management LLC raised its stake in shares of Alaska Air Group by 1,676.8% in the fourth quarter. International Assets Investment Management LLC now owns 149,089 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $58,250,000 after buying an additional 140,698 shares during the period. Wellington Management Group LLP grew its position in shares of Alaska Air Group by 16.3% in the third quarter. Wellington Management Group LLP now owns 2,554,257 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $94,712,000 after purchasing an additional 358,749 shares in the last quarter. Louisiana State Employees Retirement System purchased a new position in shares of Alaska Air Group in the fourth quarter valued at $2,813,000. Deutsche Bank AG grew its position in shares of Alaska Air Group by 63.4% in the third quarter. Deutsche Bank AG now owns 366,619 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $13,594,000 after purchasing an additional 142,310 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Northern Trust Corp grew its position in shares of Alaska Air Group by 4.2% in the third quarter. Northern Trust Corp now owns 1,024,259 shares of the transportation company’s stock valued at $37,980,000 after purchasing an additional 41,068 shares in the last quarter. 81.90% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several equities analysts have recently weighed in on the company. Evercore ISI lifted their price target on Alaska Air Group from $55.00 to $65.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Thursday, April 4th. TD Cowen lifted their price target on Alaska Air Group from $49.00 to $58.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, April 19th. UBS Group assumed coverage on Alaska Air Group in a research report on Wednesday, March 20th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $54.00 price target for the company. Wolfe Research upgraded Alaska Air Group from a “peer perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a $55.00 target price for the company in a research report on Friday, May 17th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft upgraded Alaska Air Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and boosted their target price for the stock from $44.00 to $51.00 in a research report on Tuesday, February 20th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and nine have issued a buy rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $56.60.

Check Out Our Latest Research Report on ALK

Alaska Air Group Price Performance

ALK opened at $42.70 on Monday. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $42.57 and a 200-day moving average price of $39.10. Alaska Air Group, Inc. has a 12-month low of $30.75 and a 12-month high of $57.18. The company has a current ratio of 0.65, a quick ratio of 0.63 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57. The stock has a market capitalization of $5.42 billion, a P/E ratio of 22.83, a PEG ratio of 0.57 and a beta of 1.60.

Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, April 18th. The transportation company reported ($0.92) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of ($1.09) by $0.17. Alaska Air Group had a return on equity of 13.54% and a net margin of 2.34%. The firm had revenue of $2.23 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $2.18 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned ($0.62) EPS. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 1.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities analysts predict that Alaska Air Group, Inc. will post 4.68 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Insider Activity

In other news, EVP Andrew R. Harrison sold 6,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, February 28th. The stock was sold at an average price of $38.36, for a total value of $249,340.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president now owns 26,048 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $999,201.28. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. 0.68% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Alaska Air Group Profile

(Free Report)

Alaska Air Group, Inc, through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

See Also

Want to see what other hedge funds are holding ALK? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK – Free Report).

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