A strong U.S. Wildland Fire Service initial attack was launched on a rapidly growing, lightning‑caused wildfire located about 66 miles northeast of Fairbanks. The Clums Fire (#184) was reported around 8:30 a.m. Saturday and is estimated at 75 acres, burning primarily in tundra with pockets of black spruce. Earlier air support — including four single engine water scoopers and two Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection air tankers —assisted initial suppression efforts. Eight smokejumpers remain on the ground and continue to work the fire with support from a helicopter conducting bucket drops. The air tankers were released while the water scoopers are standing by in case they’re needed to reengage.

The water scoopers first pulled water from the float pond at Fairbanks International Airport before moving to Medicine Lake, which is closer to the fire and near Circle Hot Springs.

The fire is burning on BLM‑managed land within the Steese National Conservation Area, roughly 20 miles east of the end of Chena Hot Springs Road.

This fire follows thunderstorms that moved across Interior Alaska Friday. More than 500 lightning strikes were recorded statewide, with the highest concentration in the Fairbanks North Star Borough and north into the Yukon Flats. Warm, dry, and windy conditions have followed these storms, raising concern for additional holdover fires.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the Yukon Flats from noon to 8 p.m. Sunday. Conditions are expected to become increasingly critical through the afternoon and early evening. Forecasts call for southeast winds of 10–15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, humidity dropping to around 25%, and temperatures in the lower 80s. These factors, combined with dry fuels, create an environment where any new or existing fire could spread quickly.

Lightning often ignites wildfires immediately, but not always. Holdover fires can smolder unnoticed below the surface for days until warmer temperatures, drying vegetation, or gusty winds cause them to flare up. To stay ahead of these potential starts, fire managers conduct detection flights in the days following significant lightning activity to locate any sleeper fires before they grow.

Contact Public Affairs Specialist Beth Ipsen at Elizabeth_ipsen@ios.doi.gov or (907)356-5510 for more information.

The Clums Fire is burning about 66 miles northeast of Fairbanks.

-USWFS-

U.S. Wildland Fire Service, P.O. Box 35005 1541 Gaffney Road, Fort Wainwright, Ak 99703

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Categories: Active Wildland Fire, US Wildland Fire Service

Tags: 2026 Alaska Fire Season, Clums Fire

Editor’s note: This Alaska Science Forum “time capsule” article was originally published on May 1, 1976. While employed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, John M. Miller was the Alaska SAR Facility’s technical director, and T. Neil Davis, professor of geophysics, founded the Alaska Science Forum 50 years ago. This time capsule is typical of the early columns, which were always tied to newsworthy events and often lighthearted, if not gently self-deprecating.

The Mather Library in UAF’s Akasofu Building houses many original supporting materials of this long-running column. At a time when one can use any number of online tools to help you select a date and time to win the next Nenana Ice Classic, the longtime betting game on when the Tanana River will break up, paging through hand-drawn graphs and typewritten drafts is true time travel.

• • •

One sure way to win the Nenana Ice Classic is to invest $100,800 to buy 50,400 tickets, one on each minute from about April 18 to May 22. Someone else probably will win, too, so you will probably lose money.

If you believe in statistics at all (and who does?), you can use the accompanying diagram to estimate the probability of having a winning ticket. This probability map is compiled on the basis of the actual breakup times from 1917 to 1975; the hour and day of each is shown on the map.

From these times, a bell-shaped curve was calculated to show the probability of breakup on any specified date. Calculation of the probability of breakups during a particular hour was accomplished by manually smoothing the data, since it appeared that the actual breakups did not, in the parlance of statisticians, follow a normal distribution.

Although a breakup has never occurred during the noon hour of May 6, the probability map says this is the best guess. In principle, such a ticket has 9.6 chances in 100,000 of winning. A ticket falling on the contour line labeled “1” has one chance in 100,000 of winning; one on the “0.1” line has only a chance in a million.

If you choose to ignore the probability contours, which is not a bad idea, you can still glean information from the numbers showing times of actual breakups.

One technique for picking a winning ticket combines both mathematics and skill. Hang the probability map on the wall then throw a dart at it aiming for the top of the “probability hill.” If you miss altogether, try another method.

By Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection on June 12, 2026