Editorial: Decision time in Juneau: Discipline or make it rain?

Alaska has seen this movie before: oil prices spike, politicians celebrate and Juneau starts figuring out how fast it can spend the money.

The U.S. attack on Iran has pushed global oil prices higher, rattling energy markets and sending crude prices upward as supply fears ripple through the global economy. Energy markets surged as tanker disruptions and facility shutdowns across the Middle East threatened supply — a reminder that geopolitical shocks can move oil prices overnight.

For Alaska, that means something very specific: more money. But before Gov. Dunleavy and the Alaska Legislature start eyeing a fresh pile of cash like kids staring at a cookie jar, let’s get something straight. This is not prosperity. This is a temporary windfall driven by war.

And if the past is any guide, Juneau has a good chance to screw it up.

[Related news coverage: Spike in oil prices will boost Alaska revenue, but not enough to cover projected deficit]

Oil prices jumped sharply after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and analysts say prices could climb even higher if the conflict drags on. Some forecasts suggest oil could exceed $100 per barrel, which could mean roughly $1.5 billion more in revenue for Alaska in the coming year, according to reporting by the Juneau Empire.

That kind of money would erase much of the state’s budget deficit and could even fund a dividend north of $3,000.

Cue the political stampede.

In an election year especially, there will be lawmakers eager to promise giant Permanent Fund dividends fueled by this sudden surge in oil revenue. Expect campaign ads. Expect grandstanding. Expect speeches about “returning the wealth to the people.” And even before the attack on Iran, Gov. Dunleavy was already pushing an unsustainable full dividend for each Alaskan.

It’s a stupid idea — not because Alaskans don’t deserve dividends but because temporary revenue should never be used to make permanent promises. War-driven oil money is the worst possible revenue on which to build promises.

Alaska should know better by now

Alaska’s finances remain wildly exposed to oil price swings. A single dollar change in oil prices can move the state budget by roughly $25 million to $35 million, according to Alaska Public Media.

That volatility is exactly why treating a war-driven price spike as stable revenue is fiscal stupidity.

Even lawmakers watching the markets closely say the state should not assume the spike will last. As legislative leaders told Alaska Public Media, Alaska cannot build its spending plans around overly optimistic oil prices. Yet history tells us that when oil money shows up unexpectedly, discipline in Juneau disappears faster than reindeer sausage at the Tanana Valley State Fair.

The last time a global conflict sent prices soaring was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Oil shot above $100 a barrel for months. What did Alaska do? The Legislature and governor approved a massive dividend and energy payments totaling more than $2 billion. The state spent the money almost as fast as it arrived — don’t we wish we had those billions today?

Like any temporary high, it felt good at the time, and politically, it was wildly popular. It also did absolutely nothing to solve Alaska’s long-term fiscal problems.

The temptation is coming

The state’s spring revenue forecast arrives in about two weeks. If oil prices remain elevated, the numbers will suddenly look far healthier than they did a month ago.

That’s when it gets tempting. Lawmakers will start talking about “surplus revenue.” Candidates for public office will promise bigger dividends. The governor’s allies will argue the state can suddenly afford everything. Don’t fall for it.

As longtime Alaska fiscal analyst Larry Persily recently wrote in the Alaska Beacon, rising oil prices quickly create a long list of spending ideas in Juneau. But the real question isn’t how much money might arrive — it’s how long it will last. And nobody knows the answer to that. War-driven oil spikes can disappear just as quickly as they arrive.

If Alaska receives a revenue windfall from this conflict, the state should treat it for what it is: a one-time shot in the arm.

That means save it, invest it and strengthen the state’s fiscal stability.

Deposits into reserves like the Constitutional Budget Reserve — or even better, the Permanent Fund — would help rebuild the savings Alaska burned through during the last decade of deficits. Strategic investments in infrastructure, education and economic development would strengthen the state long after oil prices fall again.

What Alaska should not do is hand the entire windfall to voters as a massive dividend. That’s not fiscal policy. That’s a sugar rush.

A simple message for Juneau

There is nothing wrong with Alaskans benefiting when oil prices rise. Oil built this state, and its revenues still help pay for essential services. But relying on war-driven price spikes to fund giant dividends is reckless.

This moment will test the discipline of Alaska’s leaders. The attack on Iran may deliver Alaska a sudden burst of revenue. But the state’s long-term problems — structural deficits, unstable revenue and growing needs — will still be there long after oil prices settle down.

So here’s the message the governor and the Legislature need to hear: If this windfall arrives, don’t blow it the way you did last time.

Save it. Invest it. And for once, resist the urge to torch the cash in the middle of an election year.