COVID cases have been ticking steadily up in Alaska, but is it a surge? – Alaska Public Media

COVID circumstances have ticked up steadily over the previous few weeks in Alaska. However this swell in numbers will not be like different COVID surges, which have regarded a lot greater.

During the last week, numbers seem to have dropped barely. There have been 2,248 circumstances reported statewide on Wednesday, and that doesn’t embrace any constructive outcomes from at-home assessments.

State epidemiologist Louisa Castrodale stated it’s clear there’s a number of COVID exercise within the state, however in comparison with final yr, the state isn’t capturing as many circumstances in its knowledge.

“We all know there’s much more over-the-counter testing that persons are doing to make selections, private well being selections about whether or not they’re gathering with individuals or touring or what have you ever,” she stated. “And people are numbers that aren’t mirrored within the general case counts.”

Castrodale says that looking at weekly case counts and traits over time continues to be helpful. For instance, Juneau’s check positivity charge spiked to almost 40% for a pair weeks in Could. That signifies that of all of the check outcomes that had been reported to the state, near half of them had been constructive. That’s normally a sign that not sufficient testing is going on to seize a real image of how a lot of the virus is in the neighborhood.

Whereas that proportion might not be probably the most helpful metric for understanding how a lot COVID is in the neighborhood, Castrodale stated the fast improve is actually an indicator that the virus is circulating.

“We’re sort of evolving on this knowledge presentation of enthusiastic about broader strokes and extra international regional traits, and the way to have a look at these numbers and make sense of them,” she stated.

That “broad stokes” perspective has been the case for some time, and it’s as a result of the COVID virus and our defenses towards it have modified. So whereas it’s tempting to match numbers now to numbers from 2020 or 2021, Castrodale stated that’s ignoring context.

“We now have vaccination in several age teams, we now have a unique variant that’s spreading, we now have totally different ranges of hospitalization relative to what we noticed for circumstances,” she stated.

If that each one sounds sort of complicated, you’re in good firm. Castrodale says even epidemiologists are struggling to search out one of the simplest ways to current COVID knowledge over time.

She stated the underside line is that if case counts or hospitalizations make a giant soar — even when it appears small in comparison with the pre-vaccine and pre-home check days — it’s an indicator that there’s extra virus round, and you could need to take into account taking precautions.

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