Sports
Writers' Euro 2024 predictions: Best player, dark horses, biggest disappointment?
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We are just a day away from Euro 2024, with hosts Germany taking on Scotland in Munich on Friday night.
What can we expect? An outsider victory? A Kylian Mbappe-inspired French romp? England out in the group stages? Whatever we get, there will be drama (we hope). Let us know in the comments section what you expect to happen.
Here, six of The Athletic’s writers give their predictions…
How to follow Euro 2024 on The Athletic…
Who will win the tournament and why?
Oliver Kay: France, because they have the strongest squad — not just in terms of talent and depth in all positions but also know-how and a proven ability to perform when the stakes are high.
Liam Tharme: France. Tournaments are won over decades of youth talent and nobody does it like Ligue 1. Didier Deschamps has found the perfect balance between system and superstars.
James Horncastle: I like how Roberto Martinez has carved out a niche as custodian of international ‘Golden Generations’. First, Belgium, and now Portugal. The balance Portugal have in midfield is encouraging and I’m waiting for Rafael Leao to deliver on his potential at this level.
Nancy Froston: France have been such a force in recent years and they do not look any weaker.
Carl Anka: Germany. Host nation, favourable side of the draw, and decent players under a clever tactical mind in Julian Nagelsmann.
Nick Miller: France are the correct answer, but Deschamps has been there so long, aren’t they due a meltdown? What about the Netherlands? They have loads of good defenders, as well as Jeremie Frimpong and Xavi Simons, while Memphis Depay seems quite cross about leaving Atletico Madrid, so he’ll have some fire in his belly.
Who will win the Golden Boot?
Tharme: Mbappe.
Horncastle: Gianluca Scamacca.
Froston: Mbappe.
Kay: Harry Kane.
Anka: Niclas Fullkrug.
Miller: Kane.
Who will be the best player?
Kay: Mbappe. If France are going deep, then he will play a big part.
Tharme: Kevin De Bruyne will carry a young generation of Belgium midfielders deep into the tournament and provide plenty of assists for Romelu Lukaku.
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Horncastle: It’s on home soil. These are the final games of his career. Imagine ending your career by winning the Champions League and the Euros. It’s going to be Toni Kroos.
Froston: Jude Bellingham. You build everything around players as good as him. If England can manage a good run, it’ll be thanks to him.
Anka: It’s Kroos. This sport doesn’t often grant happy endings, but Kroos is about to have a superb swansong.
Miller: Kroos. Are we all blinded by the sheer wattage of the narrative? Perhaps, but that doesn’t make us wrong.
Who will be the best young player (under 23 on June 14)?
Kay: There are a few English candidates, but I’ll say Jamal Musiala. He looks ready to make a big impact at Euro 2024.
Tharme: Between Musiala and Florian Wirtz. Both should rise to the occasion on home soil.
Horncastle: Arda Guler or Kenan Yildiz. Yildiz’s dribbling has generated crazy hype and Guler scored six times for Real Madrid in 377 La Liga minutes. The kid is shy but special.
Froston: Benjamin Sesko. A ‘burns bright in the group stage’ candidate feels about right.
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Anka: Lamine Yamal. The 16-year-old (16!) has all the tools to be a game-breaking forward.
Miller: Xavi Simons. If I’m sticking with my ‘the Dutch are good’ theory, he’ll be at the centre of it.
How many penalties will fail to find the back of the net — in normal time and shootouts?
Tharme: There were four shootouts in 2020, the most since Euro 1996 (also four). Let’s take an assumed average of three missed from another four shootouts, that’s twelve. Let’s go for 15 total with only three not scored in regulation time.
Horncastle: Italians would say all of Jorginho’s — which is harsh given how cool he was from the spot in the semi-final against Spain three years ago.
Froston: This is the era of the water-bottle cheat sheet, so I fancy four penalties missed in regulation time and 13 in shootouts.
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Kay: Unlike Liam, I haven’t given this the slightest thought and I’m struggling to get a handle on the numbers. One? A 100? I’ll say 10.
Anka: It’s still mostly a gamble. Three misses in the groups. Two in knockout games. 12 across collected shootouts.
Miller: Well, I’ll pick a number out of the air and say 14.
Who will ‘do an Enzo Fernandez’ and get a big transfer off the back of a tournament?
Kay: These days, so many of the best young talents are already at big clubs. Maybe it’s the perfect shop window for someone like Albania’s Armando Broja, who is surplus to requirements at Chelsea.
Tharme: Ukraine and Shakhtar Donetsk’s Heorhii Sudakov. A pure No 10, two-footed, with plenty of Champions League experience at Shakhtar Donetsk, even at 21.
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Horncastle: Define ‘big’. What if Albania winger Jasir Asani was good enough to earn a move back to Europe after a year in South Korea’s K League with Gwangju?
Froston: Nico Williams. It seems likely that clubs will be tempted by his €50million (£42m; $54m) release clause at Athletic Bilbao.
Anka: Belgium and PSV Eindhoven’s Johan Bakayoko is a dribble-heavy, left-footed winger who likes to cut inside and shoot from the right wing. That’s the sort of forward Premier League clubs like spending dough on.
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Miller: Bakayoko, Sudakov and Williams all get another couple of thumbs up, but people love a tempo-setting central midfielder, so I’ll say that Benfica will have someone’s pants down for Turkey’s Orkun Kokcu.
Tell us one thing you really want to see happen…
Kay: I would love to see England win it. But that’s such a boring answer. Failing that, I’d really like one of the smaller nations to win it. Denmark, Croatia, even Belgium. It would be nice, wouldn’t it?
Tharme: Josip Ilicic to score for Slovenia. He’s back in the national team for the first time since November 2021.
Horncastle: One of the five Italian coaches to win the thing.
Froston: Limited minutes for Cristiano Ronaldo. With every embarrassing tantrum, it gets harder to remember why he is one of the best ever.
Anka: Wingers get chalk on their boots before driving at defenders. Loads of long-range efforts after the ball spills out from a corner.
Miller: Kroos strolling off into retirement having joined your Zidanes, your Xavis, your Iniestas in the ‘winning absolutely everything there is to win’ club.
Tell us one thing you really don’t want to see happen…
Kay: I really hope the tournament is trouble-free. I also hope I can walk through a market square on the day of an England game without cringing in embarrassment at fans singing dismal songs about “10 German bombers”.
Tharme: Germany out in the groups (again).
Horncastle: Please don’t judge Luciano Spalletti as if he’s been in the job for two years when he only stepped into the breach last August.
Froston: Opening ceremonies/pre-game performances from peppy Europop singers or ageing rockers that completely sap the atmosphere.
Anka: Manchester United, could you behave yourself and avoid any news announcements and massive dramas for the foreseeable future? Thanks.
Miller: I think I’m getting soft in my old age, but I used to love penalty shootouts… now I find them incredibly stressful. So as few of them as possible, please.
Which nation are the dark horses?
Kay: We’ve been calling Croatia and Denmark dark horses for so long, I don’t feel I can do it again. I’ll say Serbia.
Tharme: Hungary. They had an excellent Nations League in 2022 against some European big-hitters and have evolved tactically under Marco Rossi.
Horncastle: Austria. I do wonder: what if Ralf Rangnick hadn’t taken the caretaker job at United when he did? I think his “open heart surgery” approach would appeal to Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Sir Dave Brailsford.
Froston: Can Croatia be dark horses? Nobody is saying otherwise, so I’m choosing glory for Luka Modric.
Anka: Hi, hello, it’s me, one of the people who said Turkey would be a dark horse at Euro 2020. I am warning you that Serbia will bloody England’s noses and reach the quarters.
Miller: Ukraine. They won’t win it, but they’ve got a great collection of young, exciting players and, well, the country could do with a good news story.
Which player/team will be the biggest disappointment?
Kay: It could be England. This tournament, amid heightened expectations, feels like it could be boom or bust.
Tharme: Portugal. They have underwhelmed since scrapping their way to the Euro 2016 trophy and have a ridiculous squad, with backups better than most teams’ first choices.
Horncastle: England. Three years ago was as good an opportunity to win a tournament as any. England didn’t seize the moment.
Froston: Adam Wharton. But not the player himself. I just do not think we will see much of him in the tournament, which has the potential to be disappointing after his impressive debut.
Anka: Portugal have the pieces to make a deep run, but a lot depends on how Ronaldo is catered for.
Miller: I fear for England, but I can see Italy doing a rather lacklustre job of being defending champions.
How far will England go and predict the manner of their final match in the competition…
Kay: A semi-final defeat by France is probably the most likely outcome, but I can see it falling short of that.
Tharme: At least to the semi-finals, likely against France. Southgate’s record against teams that have previously knocked England out is good but this would be the ultimate test. Harry Kane has scored all 15 penalties since missing against France in the World Cup quarter-finals, so I’d back him to score.
Horncastle: Tharme has allowed himself to get carried away. His penance will be a tactical breakdown of England’s defeat to hosts Germany in the last 16.
Froston: Quarter-finals. Shirts pulled up over teary eyes, dejected players lying prostrate on the pitch after a plucky defeat.
Anka: Quarter-finals. I struggle to articulate how grateful I am to Southgate and his team for creating an England side for so many to believe in, but July 11 2021 was the chance to win silverware.
Miller: 1-1 draw with Serbia, 1-1 draw with Denmark, 3-0 win over Slovenia, finish second in the group, play Germany in the knockouts. There, England will take the lead but ultimately lose in extra time.
Give us your most outrageous prediction…
Kay: The format gives teams a safety net, where even third place in the group might get you a place in the knockout stage. But Group B is horrible. Reigning champions Italy knocked out in the first round.
Tharme: No 0-0 draws.
Horncastle: Georgia ride Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s wings out of the group stages. If Kvara recaptures the form he showed in Napoli’s title-winning season, anything is possible.
Froston: Redemption for Rangnick with a decent run for Austria.
Anka: Mbappe scores the goal to knock Spain out.
Miller: France out in the group stage. No logic to it, but you never said we had to back any of this up.
What might make you get emotional?
Kay: Seeing one of the less-fancied teams perform the way Morocco did at the last World Cup.
Tharme: A Pascal Gross goal. A stalwart of Brighton, an everything midfielder who has got better with age and finally made his senior Germany debut aged 32 last September.
Horncastle: Croatia taking back-to-back knockout games to extra time and penalties.
Froston: Any underdog who takes a big team all the way only to lose at the death.
Anka: The first rest day.
Miller: I’m a sucker for parents in the crowd watching their kids succeed, so anything close to Mario Balotelli hugging his mum in 2012.
(Photos: Getty Images)
Sports
Son of Bishop Alemany baseball coach Randy Thompson denied immediate eligibility
Despite support from his fellow Mission League baseball coaches, Bishop Alemany coach Randy Thompson said Tuesday his son, Brody, a junior catcher, has been denied immediate eligibility by the Southern Section after transferring from Sherman Oaks Notre Dame. He will have to sit out the first portion of the season until March 28.
Thompson had been head coach at Alemany for 18 years until losing his job in a cost cutting measure in 2019. He became an assistant coach at Notre Dame. When the school decided it wanted him back to be athletic director and baseball coach, he agreed. His son, a starter at Notre Dame last season as a sophomore, wanted to join him at Alemany.
Notre Dame coach Tom Dill wrote a letter to the Southern Section supporting the move. But Southern Section rules require students to move physically to be eligible immediately. Thompson said he could not afford to move.
“It’s unfortunate,” Thompson said. “The rules are set up to prevent athletically-motivated transfers. My son wants to play for his dad.”
Said Dill: “My request was that we as coaches put in a lot of time developing young men, trying to make a difference in their lives, not just in game of baseball. We spend our careers doing that. I think a son should be able to play for him. How could he not go back to Alemany for his dad? The whole league agreed and I don’t know why there could not be an exception.”
A Southern Section spokesman said no valid residential change occurred and the organization cannot waive bylaw 206. Other coaches who brought along their sons without moving have faced a similar situation.
Sports
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred reflects on decade spent putting ‘my mark on the game’
NEW YORK — The passage of time is an unavoidable conversation these days for Rob Manfred, the 66-year-old commissioner of Major League Baseball. Sitting in a conference room at his Manhattan office this month, he scurried out mid-sentence to retrieve a piece of paper, a small square with ruled interlocking lines and a dot in the middle called an Amsler grid.
“So, when you’re older,” he said on his return, “your eye doctor will probably give you one of these.”
In August, sensing an issue with his right eye, Manfred looked at the grid and saw only black on one side. The next day he was in surgery to repair a detached retina. His doctor told him he was lucky: Twenty years ago, he might have permanently lost sight in the eye.
Manfred talks about the ordeal now mostly as an inconvenience. For weeks, he had to spend much of his days lying down. It’s not an optimal position to run a league that last year reached record revenues of $12.1 billion. The recovery also came with a doctor’s orders not to fly, which very nearly kept Manfred from one of the sport’s holiest days, the first game of the World Series. But vision in his eye has much improved since his surgery, and the league he oversees is at its healthiest point during a tenure that he says will end four years from now.
Saturday marked 10 years on the job for Manfred. He is the fifth of the sport’s 10 commissioners to reach that point.
Manfred’s first eight years on the job were full of quarrels: with players and their union, with minor league owners and towns, with reporters. When speaking publicly, and particularly when defending his decisions, he used to react aggressively, a vestige of his days as a labor lawyer. But as he enters his second decade in office, something unexpected has happened. For a year and a half now, he has been visibly calmer. He says time and experience have something to do with this, yes. And some media training, too. But success has also played a role. The commissioner has grown more at ease as he’s started to see the fruits of his signature achievement: the pitch clock.
The clock had once been unthinkable in baseball. But since the measure was introduced two years ago, it has forced pitchers to work faster, speeding up games that had grown to be a drag. Someday, Manfred might even be remembered as “the pitch-clock commissioner.” It easily could have been an unflattering epithet, except attendance has grown in consecutive seasons for the first time in more than a decade.
“I had come to the conclusion in my own mind that whatever change you make, there’s going to be people who call it heresy, so you can’t make decisions based on that,” Manfred said. “What we really did need was something that was firm and prescriptive and had durability. And the clock seemed like the only thing I could come up with.”
Manfred will never go down as the most popular of the sport’s leaders. But regardless of approval ratings, he has been a relentless agent of change, with a body of work that now raises an entirely different question: In the history of the sport, might Manfred be its most consequential commissioner?
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole,” said Steve Greenberg of Allen & Company, the son of Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg, and a friend and advisor to Manfred. “It’s more than the pitch clock. It’s all of those rule changes, the perception that the game has sort of been reinvigorated, the focus on bigger, broader, national and international sponsorship and media relationships, and just the changing nature of media.”
“The degree of difficulty of this job has increased exponentially in the last 30 years from what it was.”
The commissioner’s fingerprints are all over the modern game. He brought the designated hitter to the National League and he put a runner on base in extra innings. The physical bases are larger. He has reshaped the business of baseball as well, most notably in the minor leagues. In 2021, Manfred threw 40 farm teams out of the traditional affiliate system, an overhaul he powered through while fans and politicians screamed he was harming the game’s long-term future, and even small-town America itself.
But it is rare that fans care more about an initiative away from the field than on it, leaving the clock to loom uniquely large. In magnitude, its arrival is often compared with the 1973 introduction of the designated hitter in the American League, though one expert prefers a comparison to the introduction of the foul strike at the turn of the 20th century.
“The pitch clock returned the game to its ancient roots and rhythms,” said John Thorn, who in his role as the league’s official historian works for Manfred. “Ordinarily, the entrance of the machine spells the end of art, but in this case it restored baseball from a flabby parody of the old game to something that, strangely, resembled it.”
The average time of game during the clock’s first year in 2023 dropped by 24 minutes from the year before, to 2 hours, 40 minutes. When four more minutes fell off this past year, baseball had its fastest season in 40 years.
Manfred still has plenty of problems to work through in the sport. He didn’t provide a firm opinion on his place in history. But to some, like Atlanta Braves chairman Terry McGuirk, the comparison isn’t particularly close because Manfred tackled a far more complex job than even his immediate predecessor, Bud Selig, whose accomplishments as commissioner include the introduction of revenue sharing and the development of technology pioneer MLB.com.
“Bud did a great job,” said McGuirk, who like Greenberg is a friend to Manfred. “I don’t think it’s even close with what you’re trying to run here. This is an amazingly complicated machine, modern-day baseball, compared to what it was in the 90s.”
Selig is 90 and teaching at the University of Wisconsin. He was commissioner for 22 years, with Manfred serving him as a loyal lieutenant during that tenure. One of Selig’s powers was corralling a group of owners who preferred to disagree with one another. Yet, nothing he did on the field was quite as profound as the clock, which Manfred and others believe is the most important undertaking of his career.
“When I took over — with Rob, by the way — there hadn’t been change in 50 years, right?” Selig said. “There’s always a fair amount of controversy surrounding every commissioner. But how do I think he’s done? Look, I am partial. He worked with me and for me for 25, almost 30 years. I think he’s done fine.
“It was very difficult when I took over in ‘92, very difficult. The sport hadn’t changed anything, it had a terrible relationship with the union. It was really a generation or two behind where it should have been. But Rob today, the job is very complicated and very difficult.
“Is it more so than the early ‘90s? Well, I guess what I’d say to you, I’ll let historians determine that.”
For an executive who has affected so much change, Manfred wound up running baseball almost by accident. His ambition was not to become a CEO, nor did he set out to work in sports. Twice as a young lawyer, in fact, Manfred turned down a full-time job with baseball. He thought he would become a partner at a law firm and ride off.
The reasons Manfred started down this path are rooted in the small upstate city of Rome, N.Y.
Labor relations, the push and pull of unions and management groups, was part of the fabric of life in Rome, a factory town once known as the “Copper City.” And even as a kid, he loved a good debate. Manfred said he doesn’t have a single memory of his parents arguing, but well before he went on to Harvard Law, “I was an argumentative child,” he laughed. “There is no doubt about it.”
Manfred’s father ran a unionized production facility, Revere Copper and Brass, that “had terrible labor relations.” His mother saw things from the other side as part of a teacher’s union that had its share of work stoppages.
All three colleges Manfred applied to had labor programs. He picked a Washington, D.C. law firm that specialized in the field, Morgan, Lewis and Bockius. MLB happened to be a client. So Manfred started doing work as outside counsel in 1988. He was assigned to the task by a man who’d become a father figure, Chuck O’Connor, his boss at the time and a former MLB lead negotiator.
Manfred turned down one opportunity to join MLB full-time in the early 1990s — he had just made partner — and another after the 1994-95 strike. When he relented and went in-house in 1998, he did so with the caveat he did not have to relocate to New York from D.C. He quickly decided that was a mistake and moved.
Before becoming commissioner, Manfred’s most high-profile work came on the sport’s various steroids scandals. But he was also steadily assigned tasks that broadened his scope. One day when he was in the Dominican Republic, he got a call from then-commissioner Selig with the charge of negotiating a deal with Comcast over the distribution of MLB Network.
“Well, I’m happy to do that, but I don’t know anything about anything,” Manfred told his boss of TV carriage negotiations.
To get the lay of the land, Selig advised Manfred to call McGuirk, who is a veteran media executive. That process played itself over again and again but with different tutors. Through the bankruptcy of Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, a messy legal affair, Manfred learned more about the governance side of the game.
“From the beginning, Rob and I not only hit it off, but are like-minded on many subjects,” Selig said. “As any chief executive will tell you, you develop confidence in somebody after they’ve successfully done other things right.”
Multiple times, Selig said he intended to retire then delayed and delayed again. But to this day, Manfred says he never thought Selig was preparing him for the top job.
“People underestimate how clever Bud is,” Manfred said. “I never had the sense that I was being groomed. I swear to you — maybe you say, ‘You’re a dope when you look back and you look at the things he asked me to do,’ you could say, ‘How could you have missed that?’
“We literally have never talked about it. I really don’t think even the day he decided he was going to step aside and appointed the (search) committee, I don’t think he’d made his mind up that he was going to be supportive of me.”
Selig called that a “fair statement,” noting he wanted to let the committee do its work.
“When one says, ‘Well, was he being groomed?’ Well, it turned out that his experience was a help to him and to us,” Selig said. “It’s also true that he and I never talked about it. It was more action, it was more the things that we did, why we did ‘em, and how we did ‘em. So if you said, ‘Who has that kind of experience?’ He had it.”
Manfred said he always stuck to what he called the best piece of advice his father gave: Don’t worry about the next job, because if you do your current job well, the next will take care of itself.
“I never thought about being the commissioner,” Manfred said, “and I never did one damn thing that was purposely designed to position myself to be commissioner.”
Five years ago, the sport Manfred oversaw was stuck on a carousel of scandal and discontent. The Houston Astros created an uproar by cheating, and Manfred threw more fuel on the fire when he referred to the championship trophy as a “piece of metal.” Owners and players then fought over the game’s economics during a pandemic, which foreshadowed the 2021-22 lockout. Manfred at one point even crossed over into a national political drama. In 2021, he moved the All-Star Game out of Atlanta at a time when Georgia’s voting laws were under scrutiny.
And just as minor leaguers started publicly lambasting the league over low wages, Manfred was about to embark on an initiative that arguably has contributed most to the image that some hold of the commissioner as a ruthless suit.
Manfred undertook a sweeping reduction of the traditional affiliate farm system that he had long described as “chaos.” The overhaul stripped 40 cities of their affiliated teams and triggered a wave of reaction from fans and politicians who howled that he was harming the game’s long-term future — and perhaps even the small-town America of which Manfred himself is a product.
“People never want to give you the benefit of doubt when you want to change,” Manfred said. “Their immediate reaction is, ‘Oh, my God, it’s going to be worse.’”
Years later, he called the effort “an unallied success,” in part because most of those markets still have some form of baseball, even if not affiliated with a big league club. He also pointed toward improved facilities for players and, for the remaining teams, a new, more stable system that has triggered more investment from private equity.
“We took care of every small town,” Manfred said. “The fact of the matter is that the reason the outcry died down is that for even the most affected towns, they ended up better off than they were before we undertook the change.”
Many have disagreed over time, but the clamor isn’t what it once was. The change is done.
The sport still faces large problems. Pitching injuries are rampant. Diversity across the game remains an evergreen sore point, as do local television blackouts. The game’s relationship to betting remains controversial. And while the clock solved one aesthetic woe, the high number of strikeouts still frustrates many a fan.
Perhaps no group detests Manfred more than A’s fans, who blame him for allowing the team to leave Oakland.
Yet despite all of it, baseball overall has been less frenzied with controversy than it once was. Many of the issues that plagued the midpoint of Manfred’s tenure have reached some kind of resolution, or simmered.
The A’s indeed fled Oakland, heading to Sacramento for at least three seasons before a planned move to Las Vegas. Minor leaguers successfully unionized. This week, Carlos Beltrán, a ringleader of the Astros’ cheating, fell less than 20 votes shy of induction into the Hall of Fame.
And, this year, Atlanta hosts the All-Star Game.
“I do feel like we’re in a better spot,” Manfred said.
Besides the clock, Manfred believes a discussion of his impact should look at two undertakings in his tenure: no missed games because of a labor issue, and no missed broadcasts despite upheaval in the media industry.
“This is a sleeper,” he said, “and I don’t think people understand how significant it was: our ability to withstand the change in the media environment without ever having a game not broadcast.”
In 2023, amidst cord-cutting and the bankruptcy of a major sports broadcasting company, Diamond Sports Group, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks both were left without a regional sports network to carry them — in the middle of a season. But the commissioner’s office had prepared by essentially turning itself into a regional sports network.
This year, MLB plans to broadcast five teams, and the future of local TV distribution is perhaps Manfred’s greatest ongoing challenge.
“We had no local media,” Manfred said. “We had nothing. “In a really short period of time, we managed to get it up and running in a way that kept the game in front of fans.”
The other issue is Manfred’s bottom-line record in labor negotiations. Since baseball’s devastating 1994-95 strike, he has overseen every collective bargaining agreement negotiation for the owners. On his watch, MLB has not missed a game due to a work stoppage. Things got hairy in 2021-22 when players demanded a slew of changes, but a full 162-game slate was still scheduled and played.
Said Manfred: “Every round of bargaining that you go (through) that you don’t lose a game is a really significant accomplishment.”
His likely final go-round might be the biggest test yet.
A lockout almost certainly looms in 2026. Precisely how long it lasts will shape how Manfred’s tenure as commissioner is remembered.
The curiosity is whether the owners once again pursue a salary cap, the same issue that brought the sport to a halt in the devastating 1994-95 strike. How aggressively Manfred and the owners pursue a cap, then, could well affect Manfred’s legacy. “The cap commissioner,” or “the lockout commissioner,” are monikers still in play.
Franchise values have always risen in baseball, and ensuring that trend continues is Manfred’s responsibility. Steve Greenberg has represented a slew of MLB teams when they’re put for sale, including the Minnesota Twins at present. He contends that baseball’s lack of a cap lowers franchise values compared to those of other major sports.
“The perception around baseball is that without a salary cap, its values will lag behind, at least behind the NFL and the NBA, and that’s been the case,” Greenberg said. “We’ll see what happens in Rob’s final negotiation.”
In arguing that the game’s economic system needs change, Greenberg referenced the disparity between lower payroll clubs and higher payroll franchises. “That’s not a healthy situation,” he said. The topic has been top-of-mind within the sport all offseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers flexing their financial muscle. McGuirk himself avoided the word “cap,” though he advocated a desire for “new thinking.”
“One foot in front of the other doesn’t really work anymore,” McGuirk said. “Rob is, I think, committed to that kind of new thinking. I think his command of what the 30 owners want, I think, is very accurate. … There’s very high expectations of maybe fixing some problems.”
Tony Clark, the head of the Major League Baseball Players Association, has said the players will never agree to a cap.
Ultimately, Manfred has not said what route he will go, other than a general desire to improve labor relations and “leave for the next guy a situation in which we have better alignment with the players in terms of pulling together in order to make the game as good as we can make it.”
“And I mean that as broad as it sounds,” Manfred said. “I’m not suggesting any particular solution.”
Despite Manfred’s stated desire for détente, Clark said what ultimately matters are the choices that the commissioner makes.
“Players understand the difference between words and actions. Words are easy, actions are meaningful,” Clark said in a statement. “As we negotiate our next agreement with the commissioner’s office, it will be the actions that matter.”
But one action looks virtually certain. Manfred said an offseason lockout, as there was in 2021-22, should be considered the new norm.
“In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive,” he said. “There is leverage associated with an offseason lockout and the process of collective bargaining under the NLRA works based on leverage. The great thing about offseason lockouts is the leverage that exists gets applied between the bargaining parties.”
Clark disagreed.
“Players know from first-hand experience that a lockout is neither routine nor positive,” Clark said. “It’s a weapon, plain and simple, implemented to pressure players and their families by taking away a player’s ability to work.”
Manfred drew a distinction. Compared to an in-season work stoppage, he said the offseason variety is “like using a .22 (caliber firearm), as opposed to a shotgun or a nuclear weapon.”
That it’s a difficult task to manage baseball’s 30 owners is well understood. “They don’t have to do what I say necessarily,” Manfred said. Less known is how he actually does it, a skill that will once again be tested as the next lockout looms and the commissioner works to accomplish the rest of his agenda before stepping aside.
“Thirty years ago, it was more about personal relationships, me putting my hand on your shoulder and saying, ‘I need you on this one,’” Manfred said. “That’s not how you get guys now. You got to convince them you’re right.”
When he was running for commissioner, Manfred delivered a speech that relied heavily on something MLB had done little of previously: fan research. A consistent theme was the customer’s desire for more athleticism and action.
“Which, no kidding — really, right?” Manfred said. “But you can lose sight of that. And it does get back to, how do you develop a consensus, how do you manage the owners? I think we learned from the very beginning that that kind of quantitative data was different than what they had seen for a long time.”
Near the top of Manfred’s agenda before he exits is an ambitious plan for his office to take over local broadcasting rights. He wants control so that he can sell more national television packages to streaming companies. Baseball’s national TV deals expire in 2028, and that’s when MLB wants to cash in as the NBA did last year with media deals valued at a combined $77 billion.
“Maybe that’s an 11-year deal from ’29 to ’40. And, you know, maybe that’s a $100 billion deal,” said McGuirk, once Turner Broadcasting System’s CEO. “These are really big, big, big boxcar bets that he’s looking at for setting the future of baseball, long after he’s gone. And I think he’s doing all of the right things.”
But such an overhaul requires corollary changes to the sport’s revenue sharing, which means a big political problem among owners, whose TV rights greatly differ in worth. It also adds a layer of the potential fight with the players’ union in 2026, because players have a say in revenue sharing. Notably, in the age of Shohei Ohtani, selling content packages for big money isn’t just a domestic ambition.
“Our reach has been damaged by the RSNs in recent years,” Manfred said. “We have an untapped asset in terms of our Japanese, Korean, Taiwan market that streamers will be really, really interested in.”
Manfred also wants to settle MLB’s two next expansion markets before he leaves, though his confidence level in getting that done changes from day to day. It depends largely on what happens with the Tampa Bay Rays, who are in limbo following millions in damage to their stadium caused by Hurricane Milton in October.
When the time comes to choose Manfred’s successor, baseball’s owners will have a fundamental decision to make. Because the future of local media is so uncertain, and because the business has grown so large, it’s possible some will desire a commissioner of a different cloth. Perhaps the owners will seek out a top-flight media executive to lead the sport. But Manfred believes the candidate’s vocation is the wrong central question.
“The variable that you ought to look at is inside versus outside,” he said, referring to whether the next commissioner is an internal or external hire. “If you got the best executive in the world, dropped him in that office Day 1 with no indoctrination, he’d fail miserably, is my view.”
Not every official in baseball is convinced Manfred will actually leave in January 2029, or that he wants to leave. As one baseball executive asked rhetorically: How else could he make $25 million a year?
Manfred, however, points to his seven grandchildren, and a desire to see the world for fun, rather than work. Asked if he would stay if owners made that request of him, he said he is “pretty set.”
“I’ve had a job since I was 14, and I really do believe that in a leadership role, there’s a window where you put your mark on the game, the business, whatever it is,” Manfred said. “And I think at the end of this term, good, bad or indifferent, I will have had my opportunity to put my mark on the game. And it’s time for somebody with a fresh vision to take the game over.”
(Top photo: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Sports
NFL fans roast new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen after awkward moment in presser: ‘Fireable offense’
Liam Coen appeared to say all the right things in his introductory press conference as the new Jacksonville Jaguars head coach.
However, fans are fixating on one awkward moment that had social media ripping into the 39-year-old offensive whiz on Monday night.
The Jaguars and its fan base are known for their “DUUUVAL!” chant during games, which is based around the Florida county Jacksonville resides in.
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However, Coen’s first public attempt trying the rallying cry was not the most energetic, as he spoke into the lectern, and NFL fans are now thinking the worst.
“Fireable offense,” one X user wrote in the comments underneath the video.
“0-17,” said another, referencing their prediction of a winless first season for Coen and the Jaguars.
Another added, “Yeah he will be gone in 3 years.”
Now, it is easy to jump the gun on a coach during their introductory press conferences. Fans have done so countless times, judging the coach before even watching their first game play out.
A prime example was Dan Campbell’s “we’re going to bite a kneecap off” line during his introductory presser with the Detroit Lions four years ago. Fans thought it was quite a weird way to talk about the grit he wanted his team to have, but Campbell quickly became one of the best head coaches in the league.
Then, there was Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon’s message to the team before the start of the 2023 season, which went viral after he started asking how players got to the facility.
Fans particularly laughed at Gannon asking, “Who took the bus?” Granted, most of the players were on million-dollar contracts.
However, Gannon’s Cardinals improved vastly from 2023, where they went 4-13 with Kyler Murray sidelined for most of the year, as they finished 8-9 this season and just missed out on the playoffs. Players have been vocal about their love for “JG” and what he brings to the building.
Then there is the reverse effect – coaches who have great pressers that ultimately flop. The New York Giants fans loved what Joe Judge brought in his first words, showing a no-nonsense approach that would make players want to go to war for him. However, Judge did not pan out well, going 10-23 before being fired after the 2021 season to make way for Brian Daboll.
First impression could mean everything, and though Coen might have had an awkward moment, he said the right things after that.
He noted wanting “savages” on his roster, players that are not only fundamentally sound, but have an attack mentality.
“Just that physical mindset,” he explained. “When our opponents turn on the tape, what are they looking at? Are they seeing guys playing through the echo of the whistle? You might get a flag or two early on. Man, hey, let’s pull back a little. OK, here we go. But I want them playing on the edge.
“It’s a violent game. They have to be that way. I want them to play that way. So that’s where it starts. If we can get that out of these guys, I think we’ll be moving in the right direction.”
It was a roller coaster to get Coen in this position. He initially told the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he would stay on as offensive coordinator before reconsidering the job after Jaguars GM Trent Baalke was fired from his role.
However, Coen’s track record of getting offenses right seems to be exactly what the Jags need, with Trevor Lawrence and the offense struggling under Doug Pederson’s leadership in 2023.
If Coen can flip the Jaguars back to the AFC playoff threat they were in the past, fans will be eager to help him learn a better “DUUUVAL!” cry in the future.
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