What’s wrong with Manchester City?

I have a theory, although it’s not going to be a popular one with the team’s Emirati owners. The problem might be the coach, whom the club recently signed to a two-year extension that, based on the value of his previous contract, is likely worth more than $50 million.

And Pep Guardiola has earned that. In nine seasons at Manchester City, he has coached the team to 15 major trophies, including six of the last seven English Premier League titles and a treble in 2022-23. His teams have broken EPL records for consecutive titles won, most points in a season, most wins in a season, most goals in a season, largest title-winning margin and best goal differential, among other things.

Before that, Guardiola won two Champions League titles and a treble at Barcelona and three Bundesliga crowns in as many seasons at Bayern Munich. He is, without question, one of the greatest club coaches in soccer history.

But he might have overstayed his welcome in Manchester.

Guardiola, 53, has already coached more than twice as many games in Manchester as he did at any of his previous stops. If he stays through the end of his extension — and he apparently has more than 50 million reasons why he should — he’ll have spent 11 seasons at the club in a league where the average tenure of a manager is just 787 days, according to The Athletic.

Already Guardiola has been with City longer than most Americans stay in their first marriage. And just as with no-fault divorce, it’s not necessary to place blame when relationships go stale. It is, however, necessary to move on.

That’s where City finds itself after having won just once in its last 11 games in all competition, the worst slide in Guardiola’s coaching career. The latest loss came Sunday, at home, in the Manchester Derby, with City conceding twice in the final two minutes of regulation time in a 2-1 loss that dropped it to fifth in the EPL table.

City hasn’t finished outside the top four since 2010 and just once has a Guardiola-coached team finished lower than second in league play anywhere. The team is giving up goals at a higher pace (1.68 per game in all competition) than in any previous season under Guardiola, with the 42 scores City has conceded in 25 games this year matching the number it gave up in 61 games in 2020-21.

City has clearly lost its swagger. In the past it was cocky and confident; now it’s rattled and in disarray.

So why is this happening?

It’s certainly not because Guardiola has suddenly forgotten how to coach; despite City’s struggles he remains one of the game’s premier tacticians. Injuries, however, have been a factor, especially on the defensive end.

John Stones has played just 11 times this season, two more than Nathan Ake. And Kyle Walker, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Kyle Walker and Kevin De Bruyne have all lost time to injuries or illness. Yet no one has been missed more than Rodri, the team’s midfield anchor and recent Ballon d’Or winner, who has been out since late September because of an ACL injury.

City was unbeaten in eight games before Rodri was hurt; it has won just seven times in 17 games since.

Yet injuries — even devastating ones like Rodri’s — are a part of the game and City has overcome them before. What’s more likely at the center of the team’s sudden collapse this season is the fact the relationship between Guardiola and his players, like a poor first marriage, has gone stale.

Six of the team’s core players are older than 30, and all six — in addition to Foden — have been there since Guardiola’s second season in Manchester. They’ve been together for more than 440 games and thousands of practices, team meetings and halftime speeches.

There’s a good chance everything Guardiola says is something they’ve heard before. So even if they don’t tune it out — consciously or unconsciously — the message doesn’t resonate the way it did before.

This isn’t a new phenomenon. It’s why many national team managers last just one World Cup cycle and why the average stay of a club coach in Europe is only 402 days, according to the Swiss-based International Centre for Sports Studies. In South America it’s 99 fewer.

Guardiola’s tenure with Manchester City, on the other hand, is already the second longest in club history and more than two years longer than that of any other current Premier League manager.

Familiarity might be a strength in some professions, but coaching is not among them.

Consider Bob Bradley’s time with LAFC. In his first season, which ended with an MLS playoff appearance, players raved about his attention to even the smallest details, which included how well they bused their tables in the team cafeteria. By his fourth season, the team had a losing record and players were complaining that Bradley was too exacting. So the team replaced him with the more laid-back Steve Cherundolo and won a Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup in Cherundolo’s first year.

“Different influence, different voice. I think that is part of the process,” said Ante Razov, an assistant coach under both managers.

I remember a similar lesson from decades ago. The day before the late John Robinson was to coach USC in its third Rose Bowl in four years, I was sent out to cover the Trojans’ final practice. Just before practice ended, the gates to the field swung open and the USC band, led by the song girls, marched in playing the school’s fight song.

As some of the greats from past USC teams suddenly emerged from the gathering crowd to give rousing speeches, it was obvious the team’s newer players were being whipped into a fervor. But behind them several juniors and seniors sat on their helmets and chatted among themselves, ignoring the pep talks altogether. When I asked why, one bored lineman said “we’ve heard this all before.”

Robinson never won another Rose Bowl and three years later he left for the NFL. The problem wasn’t the coach or the message, it was the fact the players had heard it all before.

The same might now be true on the east side of Manchester.

⚽ You have read the latest installment of On Soccer with Kevin Baxter. The weekly column takes you behind the scenes and shines a spotlight on unique stories. Listen to Baxter on this week’s episode of the “Corner of the Galaxy” podcast.