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Meet the former Vikings and Packers visionary known as the grandfather of NFL analytics

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Meet the former Vikings and Packers visionary known as the grandfather of NFL analytics

Editor’s note: This article is part of The Changemakers series, focusing on the behind-the-scenes executives and people fueling the future growth of their sports.

LAKE ELMO, Minn. — When he retired from the Green Bay Packers, finally ready to leave the job that surpassed his wildest dreams, Mike Eayrs plucked folders from file cabinets and tried to figure out what he could actually take.

So many of the documents inside these folders were proprietary. Hundreds of printed spreadsheets, color-coded with highlighter yellows and electric greens, harboring the most detailed information you could possibly find about the NFL teams we all watch and love.

For decades, one of Eayrs’ many duties was creating these game-day cheat sheets for coaches. The laminated sheets of paper contained countless data points about every opposing coach: the play calls they preferred in certain situations, how their game plan would shift depending on the score and how quickly they’d typically unveil their plan during a game.

Walking away from his role as the Packers’ director of research and development nine years ago, Eayrs did not need any of these relics. Though he might be interested in a keepsake or two. Eventually, he grabbed one particular file, one he had compiled ahead of Super Bowl XLV, the Packers’ victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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“This is it,” Eayrs says, sliding it over.

Now 73, he is sitting at the kitchen counter in his home about 30 miles from Minneapolis. It’s a quaint spot. He lives here with his wife, Mary Jo. Their three children are out of the house now and have families of their own, so they have time to spend Sunday afternoons in August like this, relaxing and hosting a curious visitor.

Nothing about the appearance of Eayrs’ home hints at his former life as an NFL visionary, a man who is viewed by many as the grandfather of NFL analytics and referred to in hushed tones as the secret weapon in the Packers’ rivalry with the Minnesota Vikings. There are paintings on the family’s walls, no pictures memorializing Eayrs’ time on NFL sidelines. His wispy white hair and staccato voice make him rightfully seem like a blend of an engaging statistics teacher and an uplifting coach.

But then he scans through his keepsake and starts talking about the 2011 Steelers. How defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau played Cover 3 on 91 percent of their snaps in base personnel, and how the Packers used this tidbit of information to their advantage. The data is complex and contextualized, compiled to support the Packers’ coaches in making in-game decisions.

That’s how Eayrs viewed his role, first with the Vikings, then with their enemies to the east — as decision support. He did not set out to work in what is now widely known as “analytics.” In fact, when Eayrs stumbled into all of this in the 1980s, there was really no such thing as sports analytics. Why he was hired in the first place, how his job evolved over time and how he adapted to the changes are lessons about data science and quantitative analysis, a subset of NFL front offices that has become increasingly more prevalent.

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“Mike was a lone ranger,” says former NFL coach Brian Billick, who won a Super Bowl as coach of the Baltimore Ravens. “He was theorizing some of the stuff we talk about now 40 years ago. He was so far ahead of the curve. He was brilliant.”


Mike Eayrs, wife Mary Jo and their family following the Packers’ victory in Super Bowl XLV. (Courtesy of the Eayrs family)

Before they built a sleek practice facility in the Twin Cities, the Vikings held training camp in Mankato at the local college. After practice, the Vikings coaches often crossed paths with the Minnesota State coaches. Once, in the early 1980s, the college’s head coach suggested some of the Vikings coaches sit down with one of his assistants, Mike Eayrs.

Soon after, Vikings assistants Les Steckel and Floyd Reese cast a shadow in the doorway of Eayrs’ office. They asked if they could talk, and Eayrs nodded nervously. They told him what they’d heard, that Eayrs had been studying regression lines and standard deviation charts relating to football.

Pulling up chairs across from Eayrs’ desk, one of them said: “Show us some of the things you got.”

Eayrs sifted through some papers, wondering where to start. He began as simply as possible. He explained that Minnesota State had gone 3-7 the year before and that he had watched the film of all 10 games, trying to identify patterns in the wins and losses.

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“The thing that emerged right away was ball security,” Eayrs told them. “We threw interceptions and fumbled the ball.”

Steckel and Reese didn’t see this as much of a revelation. Even then, coaches knew turnover margin correlated with wins and losses.

So Eayrs took a different approach. Wanting to make the conversation more interactive, rather than acting like a know-it-all math person speaking to two experienced football people, Eayrs asked, “Do you know how long the average possession is?”

Reese, a defensive coach, replied, “You get a lot of three-and-outs.”

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Steckel, the offensive coach, interjected, “But there’s a lot of 10-play drives, too.”

“In a way, both of you are right,” Eayrs said. “The mean number of plays in a drive is 5.8. (Nearly 40 years later in 2024, the average number of plays per drive is 5.71.) I’m the offensive play caller. I tell myself every time we take the field, I’ve got to have a plan in my mind of how we’re going to get from where we’re starting to scoring position in six plays or less.”

“Why do you do that?” Steckel responded.

In an instant, the coaches had gone from skeptical to curious. Maybe the most interesting aspect of their earnest interest was the fact that Eayrs was talking like a coach. It was as if his being a play caller earned him immediate credibility.

“If you look at the three games we won,” Eayrs said, “what happened was, somewhere in that possession, we had a long gain. Your goal as a play caller is to empower your men to set the circumstances up to get the big gain.”

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In a nonintuitive way, he was explaining the impact of explosive plays on wins and losses.

Eayrs then asked them how much their play calling changed depending on the score of the game. Did they account for score differential when scouting their opponent’s tendencies?

Steckel and Reese looked at one another before shaking their heads: “No.”

“You’re missing one of the most important variables of the game,” Eayrs said. “The score has a distinct relationship with strategy.”

This back-and-forth continued for over an hour until Steckel and Reese realized they were about to miss practice. They asked Eayrs if he would show up at the high-rise dormitory on campus later that night. Eayrs ultimately did, and when he got there, another handful of Vikings coaches had come to meet him. They asked thoughtful questions that got Eayrs thinking about additional studies he could do. He left inspired.

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Over the next few years, Eayrs compiled data packets and sent them to NFL teams. Legendary Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt called him to ask about the information. Lou Holtz, then the head coach at the University of Minnesota, invited him to a meeting and asked, “What are you trying to do with this?” Eayrs told him he hoped to establish a consultant business so he could take his family on a nice vacation. “You keep producing these tables with numbers,” Holtz said, “and before you’re done, you’ll take your family on the greatest vacation you’ve ever known.”

A couple of years later, in June 1985, the Vikings did the inevitable. At the urging of the coaching staff, they hired a man who had neither played nor coached in the NFL. To do what exactly? At the time, Eayrs didn’t fully know.


Growing up, friends peppered Brian Eayrs: What does your dad do for the Vikings?

Brian would be lifting books out of his locker, and he’d hear the questions from classmates.

Is he a coach?

“Kind of,” Brian would say.

Is he a statistics guy?

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“Kind of,” Brian would say.

What do you mean … kind of?

“He’s a statistics assistant for the coaches,” Brian would say, then leave it at that.

Eayrs’ job evolved over time. In 1985, his first season with the Vikings, the defensive staff was developing a new package. The coaches argued constantly, but a consensus formed around the information Eayrs presented: If teams were running a toss sweep more than any other play, why not design the package around limiting the toss sweep?

In general, legendary Vikings coach Bud Grant despised data. Eayrs initially printed packets of information and placed them on Grant’s wooden desk. Grant rarely acknowledged Eayrs’ insights in the early days, so Eayrs dipped into his own backstory, to what had intrigued him about football data in the first place.

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When he was hired at Minnesota State in Mankato, Eayrs was asked to teach a class nobody else wanted to teach: statistics. The subject bored students some and the professors more. Eayrs thought he’d be a better fit for a leadership course or some psychological field relating to problem-solving. But he didn’t have a choice. From the outset, he vowed to find a textbook that did not read like rocket science, one that would allow the students to apply the subject to something fun like sports.

The class was segmented into groups, and each later presented its findings. One group studying the NFL discovered that the standard deviation curve was abnormally high in the middle with two long tails at the end. According to Eayrs, that meant there were 26 similarly talented teams clustered in the middle, and there were three outliers on both ends of the spectrum.

“What I used to tell the coaching staff in our meetings was, ‘You can be an optimist, or you can be a pessimist,’” Eayrs says. “Basically, if you’re an optimist, we’re sitting in this room, and we only have to figure out how to make eight to 10 crucial plays at the right time, and we’re going to be in the playoffs. And if you’re a pessimist, we are eight to 10 plays away from the abyss. The difference in that middle spectrum of teams really boils down to who can do the right thing at the right time.”

While the early studies shaped Eayrs’ perspective of the NFL, it also helped him connect with Grant. The simpler the information he could disseminate to Grant and the more he could align it with Grant’s coaching priorities, the more he believed Grant would listen. So he exchanged tables and charts for quick bullet points and, soon after, Grant started to knock more frequently on his door.

“Have you got a minute?” Grant would ask.

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“What was I going to say to Bud Grant? No?” Eayrs says now.

Once, Grant sat across from Eayrs’ desk and said, “You know, we put an awful lot of work into practice. But I don’t really think we’re practicing as efficiently as we could. Is there anything you can think of that would help us?”

Eayrs thought silently.“We could start to record more information,” he suggested.

“Good idea,” Grant said, then stood and exited.

His mind racing, Eayrs wondered: How? And what? How would they measure practice, and what should they measure? He sketched out some ideas, utilizing a spreadsheet he’d already created for game day as a foundational resource. At the time, play-by-play data had not yet been automated. So, Eayrs decided he and a handful of assistants would jot down the plays called during practice, the defensive fronts used, the coverages deployed and the results of the play.

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Almost a decade later, when Billick was hired as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator, he asked Eayrs to use a stopwatch to track the time between a snap and throw. By then, Brian Eayrs was a teenager, visiting the Vikings’ facility and burying himself in a dark room with his father while they charted practice reps together. Brian watched coaches enter the room and ask his father questions, then he listened to his father’s deliberate responses. It was almost as if Eayrs was having to convince the coaches to use his information.

But many of them did. And when they did, Brian was paying attention from section 131 at the Metrodome, wearing purple and grateful to be so close to his childhood team.


Mike and Brian Eayrs. (Courtesy of the Eayrs family)

In 2001, the Vikings hosted the Packers at the Metrodome, but that night, Brian was not sitting in section 131. He had been sequestered in an end zone section surrounded by green and gold.

“That was the most eerie game of my life,” he says. “It was very strange.”

His father had made a change. After 16 seasons with the Vikings, Green Bay hired him away. Head coach Mike Sherman wanted someone who could gather, organize and filter information and help the Packers make better in-game and off-field decisions. Sherman said most folks within the NFL during the early 2000s knew how far ahead of the curve Eayrs and the Vikings were.

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“So,” Sherman says, “we stole him away.”

Sherman remained the head coach until 2005. Mike McCarthy was hired a year later and not only kept Eayrs on, but also asked him, specifically after Green Bay’s 6-10 season in 2008, to bury himself in business strategy. Why? To find out if there were any approaches they could take and adapt to help the football side of the organization evolve.

Eayrs identified two relevant examples. The first was a study produced by the now-defunct Bemis Company, which transformed its strategy to offer more autonomy to its employees in the factory. The second was a report from Southwest Airlines explaining that its customer service was enhanced by providing gate attendants the ability to issue refunds to passengers. After months of research and planning, Eayrs presented his findings to McCarthy and the Packers staff.

Essentially, he believed the more the players on the field controlled the decision-making, the better off Green Bay would be. He even referenced an old Grant line, saying that decision-makers should come from the middle of the field. Offensively, quarterback Aaron Rodgers developed hand signals. Defensively, linebacker A.J. Hawk designed quick word association methods of changing the call from one to another.

“We never told the players about Bemis or Southwest Airlines,” Eayrs says. “They never knew the backstory.”

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So much of Eayrs’ work was like this — unknown and never written about, but resoundingly impactful.

Once, Eayrs applied a standard deviation curve to a 16-game NFL season and found that 10 to 12 games go like the staffers think they will, and there are two games on opposite ends of the spectrum that wind up as outliers due to injuries, turnovers or a flipped game script. He calls the negative games “Twilight Zone” games where “you’re going to see the train coming down the tracks,” Eayrs says, “and you’re going to try to do everything you can to divert it. You can’t.”

Another time, he used decades of practice data to answer the question of which drill most correlates with game results. The answer shocked him: seven-on-seven.

Eayrs’ curiosity could have kept him going forever. Even after he retired in 2015, Pro Football Focus hired him as an analyst to help the company make use of its swaths of automated data. Holtz would be happy to know that Eayrs’ family has taken numerous trips in the last decade.

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You might not be surprised to find out that Brian’s kids are now getting the questions he once did: Is your dad a coach? Or is he a statistician?

Brian joined former Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll’s staff in 2013 and is currently helping first-year head coach Mike Macdonald. Data is more accessible now than it was when his father did the job, and Brian’s coding ability only multiplies what’s possible. Still, Brian believes that the core of what he and other analytics staffers across the league can offer is not like Jonah Hill in “Moneyball,” but more like the real-life Mike Eayrs. He was a man without answers who spent his entire work life trying to find them.

The Changemakers series is part of a partnership with Acura.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photo: Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

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Jason Kelce regrets choosing to 'greet hate with hate' after fan's anti-gay slur about Travis dating Taylor Swift

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Jason Kelce regrets choosing to 'greet hate with hate' after fan's anti-gay slur about Travis dating Taylor Swift

Jason Kelce expressed regret Monday night for choosing to “greet hate with hate” after spiking a fan’s cellphone outside Beaver Stadium before the Ohio State-Penn State game Saturday in University Park, Pa.

Kelce, the former Philadelphia Eagles center who is now a member of ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” crew, was on campus to take part in a “College GameDay” event for the network. In video footage circulating on social media of Kelce greeting fans outside the stadium, a man can be heard shouting an anti-gay slur in reference to Kelce’s brother, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, for “dating Taylor Swift.”

Jason Kelce then turns around and grabs a phone out of someone’s hand — presumably that of the heckler — and smashes it to the ground. Further video shows Kelce in a heated exchange with the man, using the same slur back at him multiple times.

The Penn State University Police and Public Safety Department is investigating the incident.

Kelce addressed the matter at the start of Monday night’s broadcast, before his brother Travis’ Chiefs team hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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“I think everybody has seen on social media everything that took place this week,” Kelce said. “Listen, I’m not happy with anything that took place. I’m not proud of it. In a heated moment I chose to greet hate with hate and I just don’t think that’s a productive thing, I really don’t. I don’t think that it leads to discourse and it’s the right way to go about things. In that moment I fell down to a level that I shouldn’t have.

“So I think the bottom line is, I try to live my life by the golden rule, that’s what I’ve always been taught. I try to treat people with common decency and respect, and I’m gonna to keep doing that moving forward even though I fell short this week.”

ESPN declined to comment for this article.

Jason Kelce is a seven-time Pro Bowl center who played all 13 of his NFL seasons with the Eagles before retiring this past offseason. The outgoing, shaggy-bearded Philadelphia icon has become well known nationally in recent years, appearing in countless TV commercials and hosting the “New Heights” podcast with his brother.

Travis Kelce is a nine-time Pro Bowler who has been dating pop music superstar Swift for more than a year.

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Are Lions Super Bowl favorites? Or are they still a move away? Sando’s Pick Six

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Are Lions Super Bowl favorites? Or are they still a move away? Sando’s Pick Six

The Detroit Lions cannot necessarily claim to be the NFL’s best team with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs riding a 13-game winning streak. But after another important victory, this one by a 24-14 margin over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, there is a conversation to be had, at least.

The question is, have the Lions done enough to maximize their championship chances after losing elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to a likely season-ending leg injury last month? They planned to acquire 32-year-old pass rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns, according to a Pro Football Talk report, and they still could do more before the trade deadline passes Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.

The Pick Six column leads with a look at the Lions as they head into the trade deadline with a 7-1 record, best in the NFC, with road victories over Minnesota and Green Bay already. The full menu:

• Whether Lions have done enough
• Peyton, Brady and … Lamar?
• Kirk Cousins and the Raiders
• Carr, Wilson and Daniel Jones
• Busting Browns’ offense myths
• 2-minute drill: Chiefs prediction

1. If Za’Darius Smith is the big acquisition for Detroit at the deadline, have the Lions done enough?

The Lions aren’t alone among NFC North contenders dealing with a significant injury. The Vikings, already playing without projected starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw and moved to acquire Cam Robinson from Jacksonville to replace him. The Packers are facing uncertainty at quarterback while a groin injury hinders Jordan Love.

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Everyone has issues in November, but no other top contender this season has lost a player of Hutchinson’s caliber at a premium position. Looking back over the past couple of decades, only a couple of comparable situations stood out where a potential contender lost an elite pass rusher before the deadline:

• The 2011 Houston Texans lost Mario Williams, who had five sacks in the first five games before landing on injured reserve. They had a rookie named J.J. Watt on the roster and rode out the season, finishing 10-6 and losing in the divisional round.

• The 2020 Arizona Cardinals lost Chandler Jones, who was coming off a 19-sack season in 2019 but had only one sack through five games of 2020. They were 5-2 at the deadline and acquired Markus Golden, who had three sacks for the Cardinals that season and 11 in the next. That team finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

• Also that season, the San Francisco 49ers lost Nick Bosa to a season-ending injury in the second game. They also lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo right before the deadline, so they did not make a major move, instead acquiring Jordan Willis for a late-round pick swap.

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The Lions are better than any of those teams with or without Hutchinson. They have more at stake as the deadline nears.

Their potential options fit into categories.

Pipe dream/clickbait headliners:

Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals

Older vets likely to be available:

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Za’Darius Smith, Browns
Jadeveon Clowney, Carolina Panthers
Preston Smith, Packers (tricky within the division)

Younger players in the final year of their deals:
Baron Browning, Denver Broncos
Azeez Olujari, New York Giants

Two players went off the market before the regular season began: Matt Judon, acquired by Atlanta from New England for a third-round pick; and Darrell Taylor, acquired by Chicago from Seattle for a sixth-rounder. The Patriots dealt Joshua Uche to the Chiefs last week.

It’s fun to dream up deals like Detroit sending multiple first-round picks with, say, backup quarterback Hendon Hooker to the Raiders for Crosby, but those deals are rarely the ones that materialize during the season. There still is precedent for upgrading with a pass rusher at the deadline.

Lions general manager Brad Holmes was with the Los Angeles Rams when their 2018 acquisition of pass rusher Dante Fowler helped L.A. reach the Super Bowl. Holmes had left the Rams for the Lions when Los Angeles landed Von Miller from the Denver Broncos at the 2021 deadline for second- and third-round picks. Miller had nine sacks with the Rams, including four in their playoff run to a Super Bowl victory.

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Contender Acquired POST Impact

Von Miller (age 32)

Won SB: 4 sacks

Akeem Ayers (25)

Won SB: Key tackle

Dante Fowler (24)

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Lost SB: Key hurry

Akiem Hicks (25)

Lost CC: 4 hurries

Melvin Ingram (32)

Lost CC: Key sack

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Kyle Van Noy (25)

Won SB: Half-sack

Chase Young (24)

Lost SB: 1 sack

Charles Omenihu (24)

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Lost CC: 1.5 sacks

Yannick Ngakoue (25)

Lost DIV: N/A

Randy Gregory (30)

Lost SB: N/A

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Jared Allen (33)

Lost SB: N/A

Robert Quinn (32)

Lost SB: N/A

Where would Smith land on the above list of notable in-season pass-rush additions made by contenders over the past couple of decades?

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“I’d rather have him than almost all of the above,” said an evaluator who studied Smith’s performance in 2023 but has not watched him as closely this season. “Good player, fits a need and has a contract for 2025 already.”

Hutchinson was one of a kind. His pressure rate in five games this season was 25 percent, the highest for an outside pass rusher in a single season since at least 2019 (minimum 150 pass-rush snaps), according to Pro Football Focus, via TruMedia.

Smith’s pressure rate was 16.5 percent last season, which ranked 18th, between T.J. Watt and Chris Jones (his five sacks could not compare to the combined 29.5 for Watt and Jones). Smith’s 13.9 percent pressure rate and five sacks this season have come for a team that has led on only 19.7 percent of plays, the fourth-lowest rate. Detroit has led on nearly 65 percent of plays, second only to the Vikings, so the rushing situations will be more favorable in Detroit.

“Great pickup,” a veteran offensive coach said of Smith. “You might only need him to play 20 snaps a game.”

Detroit, with the NFL’s second-youngest snap-weighted defense behind that of the New York Giants, ranks seventh in defensive EPA per play this season, up from 24th in 2023.

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“(Offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson gets all the run there, but how’s (defensive coordinator) Aaron Glenn doing, D-ing up Green Bay like that after losing his safety (Brian Branch) to an ejection?” an AFC coach said.

The Packers outgained Detroit 411-216 but struggled on third down (including four dropped passes), got stuffed on fourth-and-1 and suffered a pick six right before halftime, a primary reason Green Bay finished with -3.3 EPA on offense.

Big defensive games against Arizona, Dallas and Tennessee account for much of the Lions’ No. 7 ranking on defense. There isn’t a high-powered offense on the Lions’ schedule until Green Bay in Week 14, Buffalo in Week 15 and possibly San Francisco in Week 17.

Once the trade for Smith — or any other pass rusher — goes through, unleashing the new addition in the playoffs will be the priority.

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BetMGM still has the Chiefs as the Super Bowl favorites at +425, with the Lions second at +500, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+600), Buffalo Bills (+800) and 49ers (+1000).

“Detroit has more talent than K.C., good coaching and is tougher,” an exec from another playoff-caliber team said, adding that he thinks the Lions are the league’s best team.

To that point about toughness, which Kansas City is not lacking in the least, a defensive coach made an observation after watching portions of the Lions’ victory over the Packers.

“Have we transformed to where Green Bay with its well-manicured coach looks like they should be in a dome while tough, red-faced Dan Campbell looks like he should be the one on the frozen tundra?” this coach said. “Because the ‘rug’ team (Lions with an indoor stadium sporting artificial turf) was the one securely handling the ball in the cold rain with 15 mph wind.”

The Packers have done such a good job drafting and developing, most notably at the receiver position, that analysts rarely even mention them as a candidate to make a move at the deadline. Green Bay perpetually owns the NFL’s youngest roster, or close to it. The Packers also did not lose Hutchinson. The Lions did.

Led by Holmes and Campbell, Detroit has built patiently for five years, trusting its ability to develop homegrown talent while taking steps each season. Now top contenders, and with the NFL’s third-oldest offensive team on a snap-weighted basis, the urgency is building. The Lions time to strike could be right now.

2. What do Lamar Jackson’s Ravens have in common with Tom Brady’s Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Colts? Here’s what.

The Broncos entered Week 9 ranked first in defensive EPA per play, partly because of a favorable schedule, but also because they dominated the one high-powered offense they faced when beating a then-healthy Tampa Bay, 27-6, in Week 3.

The Ravens entered Week 9 with Jackson playing through soreness that caused him to miss multiple practices during the week.

Baltimore 41, Denver 10?

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GO DEEPER

Lamar Jackson’s perfection vs. Broncos makes it easy to imagine possibilities for Ravens

With a whopping 20.1 offensive EPA against Denver, the Ravens joined the 2007 New England Patriots and 2004 Indianapolis Colts, two of the great offenses in NFL history, on an exclusive list. Those are the only teams since 2000 to meet or exceed 13 offensive EPA in at least six of nine games to start a season, per TruMedia. Those Brady-quarterbacked Patriots did it seven times. The Manning-quarterbacked Colts did it six times, same as these Jackson-quarterbacked Ravens.

The Ravens now own two of the four best nine-game starts for offensive EPA per game since Jackson became the full-time starter in 2019.

Best 9-game EPA/game averages: 2019-24

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The way this season is playing out, Jackson could emerge with his third league MVP award, while teammate Derrick Henry could be the choice as Offensive Player of the Year.

Jackson leads the NFL in EPA per pass play, passer rating, yards per attempt, pass completions longer than 15 yards and percentage of passes producing first downs. Henry leads the league in yards rushing, rushing touchdowns, scrimmage yards and rushes gaining at least 12 yards.

Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards with three touchdowns and a maximum 158.3 passer rating against Denver. Per Pro Football Reference, this was his sixth career game with as many or more touchdown passes than incompletions in games when he attempted at least 15 passes. Only Manning (seven times, averaging 25.7 attempts per game) and Drew Brees (six times on 27.8 average attempts) have as many of these games as Jackson, who has averaged 19.8 attempts in such games. Eight of Jackson’s 19 passes against Denver produced gains longer than 15 yards. No quarterback since at least 2000 has had more gains of 15-plus yards on fewer attempts.

There is one concern.

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Jackson had only 4 yards rushing against the Broncos, his second-lowest total in 92 combined regular-season and playoff starts. That was a reflection of his leg injuries, which are the biggest concern, by far, for Jackson and the Ravens sustaining the success they’ve enjoyed to this point in the season.

The Cleveland Browns hit Jackson frequently and hit him hard last week, including in the legs. Jackson has games against the Bengals, Steelers, Chargers and Eagles before Baltimore’s Week 14 bye. The Ravens finish against the Giants, Steelers and Texans before a Week 18 rematch against the Browns.

It’s a schedule peppered with difficult defenses, which could put Jackson’s durability to the test.

Lamar Jackson rushes per game, 2024

Wk-Opp

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Designed

  

Scramble

  

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Total

  

6

10

16

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3

2

5

10

2

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12

5

1

6

7

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4

10

7

2

8

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6

3

7

6

2

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8

1

2

3

3. The Raiders turned to former Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder out of desperation Sunday. Which brings us to the value of Kirk Cousins and real starting quarterbacks in general.

The Raiders were one of the teams that could have pushed for Cousins in free agency but instead invested in a less-expensive alternative. The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers proceeded similarly without using a high 2024 draft choice for a potential franchise quarterback. Throw in Cousins’ former team, Minnesota, and his current team, Atlanta, and it’s interesting to see how much better (or worse) those teams’ offenses rank in EPA per play.

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Offensive EPA/play ranks, 2023-24

The Falcons have made the biggest jump, from No. 26 last season to No. 7 through Week 9 this season. The Steelers have made a big jump for much less money, while the Vikings are about where they were last season, when Cousins started eight games before suffering a season-ending injury (the Vikings ranked 11th in offensive EPA per play through eight games last season).

This is not to suggest Cousins could have improved every team as much as he has improved the Falcons. At his age, with his injury history, playing indoors for a team with solid weaponry surely helps his production.

As for the Raiders, who fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and two other assistant coaches late Sunday, I’m not sure what the record is for the number of times a quarterback has been benched in the first nine games of a season, but Gardner Minshew must rank up there, at least in recent times, after suffering his third in-game demotion of the season during a 41-24 defeat at Cincinnati. The Raiders signed him to a two-year, $25 million contract in free agency.

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Ridder completed 11 of 16 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown in relief, which was good for him. But for a big-picture look at what signing a real starting-caliber professional quarterback can do for an offense, consider this wild stat:

• The Falcons are already 93 percent of the way toward their 2023 full-season total for yardage when targeting wide receivers. They have 1,535 yards passing to wide receivers through Week 9 after having 1,650 all last season, when Ridder started 13 games for them.

The Raiders have traded receiver Davante Adams, who became disgruntled in their offense, and will be looking for a quarterback in the offseason.

Percentage of 2023 full-season WR yardage

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4. Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and … Daniel Jones? How long will the Giants wait?

With the Giants falling to 2-7 after a Daniel Jones lost fumble created the biggest single-play EPA swing of this 27-22 defeat to Washington, coach Brian Daboll predictably faced more questions about his quarterback’s viability.

“The words ‘Daniel Jones’ and ‘injury guarantee’ are going to come up so much this year,” a 2024 Quarterback Tiers voter predicted before the season.

We are getting closer to that point with every Giants defeat because Jones’ contract carries $23 million in injury guarantees for next season. That’s money the team could avoid paying by releasing Jones after the season, unless Jones were to suffer a serious injury during the second half of this season. In that case, the team could become liable for all or part of that money ($12 million of it becomes fully guaranteed at the start of the 2025 league year, which is March 12).

These sorts of considerations have, from all appearances, led other teams to bench high-priced, low-producing starters in recent seasons, from Derek Carr in Las Vegas to Russell Wilson in Denver. Those teams waited until Week 17 before benching their starters.

QB Injury Guarantee Benched

$40,000,000

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2022 Week 17

$37,000,000

2023 Week 17

$23,000,000

TBD

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Would the Giants turn to backups Drew Lock and/or Tommy DeVito earlier than that? The intensity of the New York-area media market differentiates that situation from others. Jones also has much less career production than Wilson or even Carr had previously. He has also suffered serious injuries more frequently, including last season.

Reporters covering the Giants pressed for clues Sunday.

Did the Giants run the ball so much early in Week 9 because Daboll feared putting the ball in Jones’ hands? A variation of the question arose at Daboll’s postgame news conference after the Giants passed only six times in 22 chances on early downs in the first 28 minutes against Washington. The 27.3 pass rate in those generally neutral situations was the lowest for the Giants in 45 total games since Daboll became coach.

One of those six early pass plays doomed Jones’ statistical line Sunday. It also might have doomed the Giants to their defeat. And it will lead to continued speculation about Jones’ viability.

The Giants had first-and-10 from the Washington 29-yard line in the first quarter. Jones took a sack and fumbled. The Commanders took over at the Giants’ 31 and soon scored the game’s first touchdown. This single play cost the Giants 8.1 EPA, the biggest swing on any single sack in Week 9. (If the officials had not blown the play dead, the fumble would have been returned for a TD, making the EPA swing larger.)

One factor working in Jones’ favor: He is getting the ball to rookie receiver Malik Nabers, whose nearly 29 percent team target share ranks third in the league behind Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson.

5. Poor offensive production is more palatable without Deshaun Watson in the lineup, but let’s bust a myth about this Cleveland Browns offense: Joe Flacco was not cooking in Cleveland.

The one-week bump the Browns’ offense got with Jameis Winston replacing Watson in the lineup last week became just that, a one-week bump.

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Winston and the Browns’ offense struggled terribly in a 27-10 home defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9.

Now seems like a good time to remind ourselves that Cleveland’s offense has been consistently poor from a statistical standpoint since the Jacoby Brissett glory days of early 2022. That includes the feel-good six-start run with Flacco in the lineup late last season — for which he won Comeback Player of the Year — when the Browns finished with -10.6 offensive EPA on a per-game average, right in line with the -10.4 average across Watson’s 19 starts.

The chart below shows the game-by-game breakdown across 2022-24 when Brissett, Watson, Flacco and Winston started. I’ve excluded six starts with P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jeff Driskel for clarity and because they were merely spot starters.

chart visualization

One bad game with Winston does not make a trend. The Chargers entered Week 9 ranked second in defensive EPA per play, having handed the Chiefs their worst statistical game on offense this season.

Perhaps this will become a one-off rough game for Winston and the Browns. But the overall trend is clear and problematic for Cleveland, whether or not Watson is in the lineup.

6. Two-minute drill: Predicting a 31-17 Chiefs victory, which would extend one streak while breaking another

The Chiefs’ 13-game winning streak is the longest in NFL history without exceeding 28 points scored at any point during the streak. The other teams with more than 10 of these lower-scoring victories in a row played in the late 1920s, when passing was so new that rules required quarterbacks to remain at least five yards behind the line of scrimmage when throwing.

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While the Chiefs’ offense has not adhered to that long-lost rule, Kansas City does rank last in average air yards, with each pass traveling only 5.8 yards past the line of scrimmage before reaching its target. That’s 1.9 yards below the league average and reflective of an offense that is highly efficient but not striking fear into opponents with its vertical orientation.

Monday night’s matchup at home against Tampa Bay puts the Chiefs in prime position to not only extend their winning streak to 14 games, but also to finally top 28 points in the process, and hit some deep passes as well.

A Bucs defense that held the Commanders, Lions and Eagles to a combined 50 points on offense early in the season no longer seems to exist.

The Buccaneers have allowed 108 points in three recent games against Atlanta, Baltimore and Atlanta again. From Weeks 5-8, Tampa Bay allowed four touchdown passes on throws traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage, after allowing zero over the season’s first four weeks, per TruMedia.

Offensive PPG differential vs. Bucs entering Week 9

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Wk-Opp Vs Bucs Vs Others Gap

20

29.9

-9.9

16

35.2

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-19.2

26

18.4

+7.6

14

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25.8

-11.8

36

18.8

+17.2

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20

22.3

-2.3

41

27.9

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+13.1

31

18.8

+12.2

What happened to the Bucs’ defense? Coaches from other teams pointed out a few things. Cornerback Jamel Dean is out, linebacker Lavonte David isn’t as formidable as he once was and there isn’t an elite pass rusher. That creates more reliance on blitzes that, when disguised, take shape from far enough away for quick-processing quarterbacks to decipher them in time. That helps explain how the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins passed for 785 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception in two games against the Bucs.

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“It sets up really well for Kansas City because the quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) will get the ball out, and Tampa Bay plays a lot of zone, so those receivers do not have to get open against man,” one coach said. “And then Tampa won’t score 20 points against Kansas City because their wideouts are injured. They can run the ball well, but not well enough against Kansas City’s front.”

It all points to a 31-17 type of Chiefs victory, unless the Buccaneers can find a way to flip the script.

• Super holdovers: Eleven current Bucs and 13 current Chiefs remain from the Super Bowl between the teams following the 2020 season.

Tampa’s list includes Tristan Wirfs, Lavonte David, Jordan Whitehead, Anthony Nelson, Chris Godwin, Jamel Dean, Vita Vea, Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., William Gholston and Zach Triner.

Kansas City’s list includes Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Tershawn Wharton, Mike Danna, Mike Pennel, Derrick Nnadi, Mecole Hardman, Harrison Butker, James Winchester, Joseph Fortson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Lucas Niang.

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(Whitehead, Pennel, Hardman and Fortson each signed deals with other teams before returning.)

• Texans’ takeaways: The Houston Texans’ decision to kick a field goal on third-and-goal from the New York Jets’ 11-yard line while trailing 21-10 with 42 seconds left Thursday night seemed curious on the surface.

Going for a touchdown in that situation makes the most sense for any team trying to erase an 11-point deficit with some combination of a touchdown, onside-kick recovery and field goal.

It’s a desperate situation and a largely futile one regardless.

“It’s so hard to win those,” a veteran coach said. “You are in the North Atlantic, two miles under the surface in the Titanic, and by kicking on third down, you made the error of turning the escape hatch clockwise instead of counter-clockwise. You’re doomed either way, really.”

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Since 2000, teams are 0-25 when trailing by 9-11 points with 1:00 to 0:20 remaining and facing third-and-10 or longer from inside the opponent’s 30-yard line, per TruMedia. The Texans were the fourth team to try a field goal in those situations. Three of the other 21 scored touchdowns on their third-down plays, but no team scored more than once.

The Texans’ inability to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud, who took eight sacks in the game, surely factored into the risk-reward equation. Houston did try an onside kick after making the field goal try.

At worst, this looked like a game Stroud and the Texans were increasingly eager to get behind them.

• The Indianapolis Colts had less time on the fourth-quarter game clock (33 seconds) than Houston had when Indy made a 54-yard field goal on first-and-10 from the Minnesota 36 while trailing by 11 Sunday night. The Colts’ onside try failed and they lost, 21-13.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson — benched after making headlines for taking a break against Houston last week because, in his words, he was tired — could not catch a break during the broadcast Sunday night. He happened to be yawning when cameras showed him on the sideline. The game itself reflected better on Richardson as the Colts set season lows in a range of statistical categories with Flacco in the lineup.

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• Arizona’s 29-9 domination of the Chicago Bears, complete with a 213-69 rushing advantage for the Cardinals, affirmed a few things.

Chicago is a sub-average team with victories over teams that were struggling at the time: Tennessee in the opener, the Rams in Week 4, the Panthers and Jaguars thereafter. The Bears have lost to three pretty good teams in Houston, Indianapolis and Arizona. They did nearly beat Washington, but that defeat was most damaging of all, for the way the Bears imploded in the end.

The Bears still have their entire NFC North schedule ahead of them, which seems like a bad thing, given the strength of the division.

The Cardinals have now won four of five, and they’ve beaten some pretty good teams: San Francisco and the Chargers, plus Miami with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. They are a Week 10 home victory over the Jets from taking a 5-4 record into their bye and have already matched their win total from last season. They have made progress.

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• For the first time this season, a team won after playing Detroit the previous week. That winning team was Tennessee, against New England in overtime, after the Patriots played for overtime by kicking the tying extra point with no time on the regulation clock.

• My read on the Seahawks following their 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams is that their defense looked much better, but their vision for playing offense might be incompatible with their situation at right tackle, where their top three options remain injured. That situation is likely the No. 1 reason Geno Smith appears to be in boom-and-bust mode, throwing the ball all over the field with mixed results (three touchdowns and three interceptions Sunday).

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Gutting loss to Rams makes clear who Seahawks are: A team that’s not quite good enough

It’s possible starting right tackle Abraham Lucas will return following the bye. Whatever the case, does the youngest head coach in the NFL, the defensive-minded Mike Macdonald, have a clear vision for how his team will play offense? Is he letting his first-year offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, play his own way?

Seattle was relatively balanced offensively in the early going Sunday, but the team still ranks second to Cincinnati on the Cook Index with its 61 percent pass rate on early downs in the first 28 minutes.

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A Week 10 bye gives Macdonald time to assess such things.

• Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle for the Philadelphia Eagles in their 28-23 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars was one of those plays affirming just how different, how absolutely special, the best pro athletes tend to be. We can’t always tell how fast they are running, but a play such as this one makes clear to all that those white lines mark the boundaries for another planet.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

‘It was the best play I’ve ever seen’: Saquon Barkley’s influence on Eagles’ win

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(Photo of Dan Campbell: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)

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Chiefs score game-winning touchdown in overtime to beat Buccaneers, remain undefeated

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Chiefs score game-winning touchdown in overtime to beat Buccaneers, remain undefeated

Patrick Mahomes gave all Kansas City Chiefs fans a brief scare on “Monday Night Football,” but all ended well as the team remains undefeated after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 30-24.

But overtime was needed in this one to decide whether Kansas City stayed in the win column in Week 9.

The Chiefs are now 8-0 on the year, while the Bucs fell to 4-5 after losing their third straight game. 

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.  (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

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The Buccaneers, down a touchdown with 2:16 left in the fourth quarter, would not go out without a fight in this one, and Baker Mayfield had the perfect drive to give themselves more time on the clock.

Mayfield found Ryan Miller for the one-yard touchdown, but instead of going for two for the lead, Todd Bowles opted for the extra point, which was good to tie the game at 24 apiece. 

Bowles didn’t know it at the time, but perhaps going for two would’ve had Tampa Bay winning the game as Mahomes, getting the coin flip to go his way in overtime, didn’t let the Bucs get the ball back. 

Mahomes dissected the Buccaneers’ defense on the first and only drive of overtime to eventually have Kareem Hunt score the overtime touchdown on a one-yard run.

PATRICK MAHOMES’ MOTHER, RANDI, ENDORSES TRUMP AT CHIEFS GAME: ‘LET’S DO IT!’

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The scare came in the second half when Mahomes made a shovel pass to Samaje Perine to tie the game at 17 apiece after Harrison Butker’s extra point, but replay showed him awkwardly plant on his left leg as he was scrambling outside the pocket. 

Mahomes was on the injury report this week with a left ankle sprain, but it was never something that would keep him out of the game. 

He initially needed assistance to get off the field, but after doing some work on the sideline, Mahomes returned to the game. The ESPN broadcast said that it was an ankle ailment, though it wouldn’t be removing him from his duties. 

After Chiefs fans at Arrowhead Stadium gave him a raucous ovation after seeing him walk back onto the field, Mahomes orchestrated another fourth-quarter touchdown drive, finding his new receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the second time in this game in the colored paint to take their 24-17 lead. 

Hopkins, who was traded by the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago to the Chiefs, had his breakout performance with his new squad. He finished with eight catches for 86 yards with his two scores.

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The first touchdown for the Chiefs in this game came on a connection between Mahomes and Hopkins for a one-yard score, and it wasn’t even the most impressive catch of the drive for the veteran wideout. 

Mahomes heaved one 35 yards downfield with Hopkins triple-covered, and he somehow was the one that came down with it to put the Chiefs in the red zone. And after hauling in his first touchdown as a Chief, Hopkins paid homage to his former Titans squad by doing a rendition of the popular “Remember The Titans” walk with his new teammates. 

Through rainy conditions, the Chiefs and Bucs both got off to slow starts in this game with Kansas City owning a 3-0 lead after the first quarter. 

Chiefs celebrate touchdown

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (8) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.  (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

Mayfield and the Buccaneers were able to find the end zone first, and it was Rachaad White, the Kansas City native making his first-ever appearance at Arrowhead Stadium, scoring the game’s first touchdown. 

On the Buccaneers’ second drive of the game, White got a beautiful block from left tackle Tristan Wirfs and ran his way almost without contact from seven yards out into the end zone to make it a 7-3 game after Chase McLaughlin buried the extra-point attempt. 

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But as the Chiefs always seem to do, they responded, and it came on the ensuing drive with Hopkins’ score. 

Those were the only touchdowns of the first half, though the Chiefs may have had something cooking under two minutes if Travis Kelce hadn’t fumbled on second-and-10 near midfield with 1:03 left to play in the second quarter. 

However, Kelce led the way for the Chiefs in the pass game with 14 catches for 100 yards, including a couple to set up for the game-winning run by Hunt. 

Patrick Mahomes throws

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.  (Denny Medley-Imagn Images)

Mahomes would finish 34-of-44 for 291 yards, while Mayfield was 23-of-31 for 200 yards with two touchdown passes. Cade Otten, who found the end zone once more, was the Bucs’ leading receiver with eight catches for 77 yards. 

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Finally, the ground-and-pound game worked for the Chiefs, as Hunt’s 106 yards on 27 carries set the tone and he capped off a hard-fought victory once more for Kansas City. 

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