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Republican ‘wake-up call’: Special election shocker highlights GOP turnout and midterm risks

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Republican ‘wake-up call’: Special election shocker highlights GOP turnout and midterm risks

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A stunning setback for Republicans at the ballot box in a ruby red part of right-leaning Texas has some saying the defeat was a “wake-up call” for the GOP ahead of this year’s midterm elections, when the party is defending its narrow congressional majorities.

The double-digit shellacking, in a special state Senate election this past weekend in a Fort Worth area district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024, comes amid backlash over the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration and, as the latest polling indicates, the president and his party are well underwater.

The Democrats’ victory, their latest win or over performance in a slew of special elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, is further energizing them as they work to win back control of the House and possibly the Senate.

“It’s clearly a wake-up call for Republicans,” longtime Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News Digital.

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AFFORDABILITY: THE ISSUE THAT BOOSTED TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS IN 2024 DEFLATED THEM IN 2025

Taylor Rehmet greets a supporter at his Senate District 9 runoff watch party at Nickel City in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026. (Eleanor Dearman/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

And he warned that the results in Saturday’s special election to fill a vacant GOP-controlled seat in state Senate District 9 “does show that Democrats are energized and Republicans did not turn out in the numbers they should have.”

“If Democrats can win this seat, it puts a lot of other seats in play,” Steinhauser warned.

But Republican sources involved in midterm messaging tell Fox News Digital that while they’re not discounting the Democrats’ victories, there’s no talk right now of a wholesale revamping of the GOP’s playbook.

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2025 SHOCKERS: THE BIGGEST MOMENTS THAT ROCKED THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

In Texas, Machinist and Air Force veteran Taylor Rehmet topped Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points in Saturday’s runoff election, despite Republicans dramatically outspending Democrats in the race, along with support from top Republicans including Gov. Greg Abbott and a last-minute endorsement and a social media push by Trump.

This is the first time the seat, in the northern part of Fort Worth anchored Tarrant County, has been represented by a Democrat in four decades.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) called it a “Shockwave Victory” and highlighted that “Democrats have now flipped 26 state legislative seats since Trump retook office, while Republicans have flipped zero.”

The results of special elections are often over-hyped and are not always the best indicator or barometer of things to come. But regardless, Republicans aren’t trying to sugarcoat the results.

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Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called the defeat “a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted.”

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis noted on X, “Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election. That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.”

“Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms,” DeSantis emphasized.

RNC CHAIR BETS ON ‘SECRET WEAPON’ TO DEFY MIDTERM HISTORY, PROTECT GOP MAJORITIES

Thanks in part to their laser focus on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation, Democrats scored decisive victories in the 2025 elections, and have overperformed at the ballot box in other off-year and special elections since the start of Trump’s second administration. But some of those victories and overperformances came in contests in small state legislative districts, where large swings can take place amid low voter turnout.

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That wasn’t the case in Texas, where the 9th state Senate district is home to roughly one million people, more populous than the 800,000 people in a typical congressional district.

Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, are facing traditional political headwinds in the midterms and a rough climate.

More than half (54%) surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll said the nation was worse off than it was a year ago, when Trump took office, with only 31% saying the U.S. was in a better position.

Only 30% said the economy was in excellent or good shape, and Trump’s overall approval ratings remain in negative territory (44%-56%), according to the poll.

The survey was the latest national poll to spell trouble for the GOP.

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Trump’s emphasis on inflation was a key factor in Republicans winning back the White House and Senate and holding on to the House in the 2024 elections. But Trump’s approval on combating inflation stood at just 35% in the Fox News survey.

FOX NEWS POLL: AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 2026 MIDTERMS

Border security and immigration were also winning issues for Trump and the GOP in 2024. But in the wake of two fatal shootings by federal agents of U.S. citizens in Minnesota protesting against the administration’s aggressive deportation efforts, the president’s poll numbers on immigration have slipped.

While Trump’s approval ratings on border security stood at 52%-47% in the latest Fox News poll, he was at 45%-55% on how he was handling immigration.

Tarrant County is Texas’ third most populous, and nearly a third of its population is Hispanic.

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Trump made major gains with Hispanic voters in Texas and across the county as he won back the White House in 2024.

“I think we might have expected that the support among Hispanic voters in Texas for Trump might translate to all Republicans. That may not be the case,” Steinhauser noted.

And he suggested that “some of the other imagery coming out of Minnesota is giving people pause, especially Hispanic Texans.”

CASH SURGE: HOUSE GOP SMASHES FUNDRAISING RECORDS AS REPUBLICANS GEAR UP TO DEFEND SLIM MAJORITY

Looking ahead to November’s midterms, when the Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to recapture the House majority, DNC Chair Ken Martin said that the results in the Texas special election “prove that no Republican seat is safe.”

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Two veteran Republican strategists told Fox News Digital Republicans need to showcase their successes to change the narrative heading into the midterms.

President Donald Trump signs sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” during a picnic with military families to mark Independence Day, at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025.  (Reuters/Ken Cedeno)

Pointing to the GOP’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which includes numerous tax cuts that many voters will feel this spring, Lance Trover said “Republicans have passed significant legislation. It’s on us to go out and sell it and remind voters that if Democrats have their way we are on a fast track to socialism.”

And Colin Reed emphasized that “if the economy starts booming on the backs of the One, Big Beautiful Bill’s provisions taking hold, the Republican Party need to remind America that this was a policy uniformly supported by one party and opposed by another. That’s the GOP’s big bet heading into the midterms.”

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And back in Texas, Patrick was optimistic as he looked head to the midterms.

“I know the energy and strength the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We will come out fighting with a new resolve, and we will take this seat back in November,” the lieutenant governor predicted.

Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.

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Arizona governor vetoes Charlie Kirk memorial license plate, sparking GOP outrage: ‘This bill falls short’

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Arizona governor vetoes Charlie Kirk memorial license plate, sparking GOP outrage: ‘This bill falls short’

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Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, a move Republicans are blasting as a stunning act of partisanship after his assassination.

Kirk, who was assassinated while speaking at a Sept. 10 Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University, lived in Arizona with his wife, Erika, and two children. 

The proposed specialty plate, referred to as the “Charlie Kirk memorial” plate or the “Conservative grassroots network special plate,” featured a photo of the late Kirk and the TPUSA logo in front of an American flag background.

Below the license plate number were the words “FOR CHARLIE.”

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A custom Arizona license plate, featuring a Turning Point USA and Charlie Kirk design, shared by state Sen. Jake Hoffman. (Senator Jake Hoffman via X)

STATE DEPARTMENT REVOKES SIX VISAS OVER OFFENSIVE CHARLIE KIRK ASSASSINATION COMMENTS

Of the $25 fee required for the plate, $17 would be an annual donation deposited into the Conservative Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund, according to the legislation.

While the recipient of the Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund was not explicitly designated as TPUSA in the bill, it noted the director of the fund would allocate revenue annually to a nonprofit organization, founded in 2012, that focuses on restoring traditional values, maintaining a grassroots activist network on high school and college campuses in Arizona, and assisting college students with voter registration and absentee ballots.

People gather at a memorial to mourn Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk outside Turning Point USA headquarters Sept. 12, 2025, in Phoenix.  (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

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TPUSA, founded by Kirk in 2012, is well known for its grassroots activist networks on high school and college campuses. It is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

The $25 fee and annual $17 donation are consistent with the fees for the other 109 nonprofit license plates offered by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT).

‘WE ARE NOT AFRAID’: ERIKA KIRK VOWS TPUSA WILL CONTINUE CAMPUS DEBATES NATIONWIDE

The state Senate passed the bill, 16-2, with the House of Representatives voting 31-23 in favor prior to Hobbs’ veto.

Specialty plates in Arizona are authorized by the legislature and sent to the governor to be signed into law. They have been offered since 1989.

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In a letter explaining the veto, Hobbs cited concerns with the bill “bring[ing] people together,” claiming it would “insert politics into a function of government that should remain nonpartisan.”

Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

ERIKA KIRK BATTLES FOR CAMERAS IN COURTROOM WHILE EXPANDING TPUSA CHAPTERS IN NEW STATE PARTNERSHIP

“Charlie Kirk’s assassination is tragic and a horrifying act of violence,” Hobbs wrote. “In America, we resolve our political differences at the ballot box. No matter who it targets, political violence puts us all in harm’s way and damages our sacred democratic institutions.

“I will continue working toward solutions that bring people together, but this bill falls short of that standard.”

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Specialty license plates with political interests already approved by the state include the “Choose Life” Plate, which benefits the Arizona Life Coalition and its mission to promote anti-abortion advocacy and education; the “In God We Trust” Plate, which benefits conservative Christian legal advocacy group Alliance Defending Freedom; and the Arizona Realtors’ “Homes for All” Plate, which funds affordable housing projects.

Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, speaks during the Turning Point Action conference in 2023 in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Lynne Sladky/AP Photo)

DEMOCRAT JOHN FETTERMAN DECRIES ‘DEHUMANIZING’ ATTACK AGAINST CHARLIE KIRK’S WIDOW ERIKA

Another approved plate, “Alice Cooper’s Solid Rock Plate,” which benefits Solid Rock Teen Centers, features a portrait of the legendary musician, who has made political comments about social issues including gender identity.

Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who sponsored the bill, posted a fiery statement on social media after the governor’s action, claiming her “grotesque partisanship knows no bounds.” 

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“Even in the wake of a global civil rights leader — an Arizona resident and her own constituent — being assassinated in broad daylight for his defense of the First Amendment, Hobbs couldn’t find the human decency to put her far-Left extremism aside simply to allow those how wish to honor him to do so,” Hoffman wrote. “Katie Hobbs will forever be known as a stain on the pages of Arizona’s story.”

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On Saturday, TPUSA COO Tyler Bowyer shared an X post that said, “Deport Katie Hobbs.”

TPUSA, Bowyer and Hobbs’ office did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.

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Air Force veteran warns ‘cartels don’t collapse — they fracture’ after notorious drug lord killed

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Air Force veteran warns ‘cartels don’t collapse — they fracture’ after notorious drug lord killed

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Nearly two weeks after Mexican forces killed notorious cartel boss Ruben “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, questions remain about how the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) will respond and whether the blow will meaningfully disrupt the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Carlos De La Cruz, a 20-year U.S. Air Force veteran who deployed after 9/11 and later served along the southern border, told Fox News the cartel leader’s death marked a major victory, but warned Americans should not mistake it for the end of the fight.

“When I say that this is a significant win, I mean it,” De La Cruz said. “El Mencho ran one of the most violent cartels on the planet.”

Oseguera, who rose to prominence in the post–El Chapo era, oversaw CJNG’s aggressive expansion across Mexico and into key trafficking corridors feeding U.S. drug markets. Under his leadership, the cartel became a central architect of fentanyl and methamphetamine trafficking and drew a $15 million U.S. reward for information leading to his capture.

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NARCOTICS EXPERT REVEALS SLAIN DRUG KINGPIN EL MENCHO’S DEADLY IMPACT ON AMERICANS

Smoke rises from burning vehicles after a military operation that a government source said killed Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho,” in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Screen grab obtained from a social media video. @morelifediares via Instagram/YouTube via Reuters)

But De La Cruz cautioned that removing a cartel kingpin does not dismantle the organization.

“Cartels don’t collapse when you just cut the head off — they fracture,” he said. “And part of that fracture is going to see a lot of short-term violence while all these factions fight over territory.”

Following Oseguera’s killing on Feb. 22, the U.S. State Department issued travel alerts in multiple Mexican states, citing road blockages and criminal activity tied to security operations, underscoring concerns about instability in the aftermath.

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Drawing on his military background studying enemy command structures, De La Cruz described the cartel fight as a long-term campaign requiring sustained pressure.

A mughsot of Ruben “Nemesio” Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” beside graffiti depicting the letters of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, covering the facade of an abandoned home in El Limoncito, in the Michoacan state of Mexico. (Eduardo Verdugo/AP Images; Drug Enforcement Administration)

“You don’t win a war with just one airstrike,” he said. “The goal is dismantling the networks and going after their financing.”

De La Cruz, who is running for Congress and is the brother of Texas Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, argued that CJNG’s Foreign Terrorist Organization designation gives U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies expanded tools to target cartel infrastructure and financial pipelines.

KAROLINE LEAVITT WARNS CARTELS TO ‘NOT LAY A FINGER’ ON AMERICANS OR PAY ‘SEVERE CONSEQUENCES’

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A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the cartel leader’s death. (Armando Solis/AP Photo)

But he stressed that the fentanyl crisis should be viewed as a domestic security emergency, not a distant foreign problem.

“For decades, they were using their territories as launching pads to pump chemical weapons into America — because that’s exactly what fentanyl is,” he said.

De La Cruz, who said he worked side by side with Customs agents while deployed to the border, warned that cartel networks are highly adaptive and that any gains could be temporary without sustained follow-through.

SEN MULLIN URGES SPRING BREAKERS TO CANCEL TRIPS TO MEXICO AMID COUNTRY’S VIOLENCE: ‘NO ONE SHOULD BE GOING’

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Smoke rises after violence hit Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. (Courtesy of Scott Posilkin)

“These networks, they’re going to adjust. They’re going to adapt and they’re going to adapt quickly,” he said. “We have to continue to go after the money launderers, especially on our side of the border, because that’s the full fight.”

While Oseguera’s death removes one of the most dominant figures in Mexico’s criminal underworld, De La Cruz said the mission is personal.

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“I took an oath to defend this country,” he said. “And I intend to stand by that oath.”

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Fox News Digital’s Greg Wehner contributed to this report. 

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to stepheny.price@fox.com.

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Search for Nancy Guthrie enters 5th week, cadaver dogs on hold

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Search for Nancy Guthrie enters 5th week, cadaver dogs on hold

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TUCSON, Ariz. — More than five weeks after the suspected abduction of Nancy Guthrie — the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie — Arizona authorities say cadaver dogs used earlier in the investigation are not currently being deployed as the search continues.

The elder Guthrie is believed to have been kidnapped from her home in the Catalina Foothills in northern Tucson around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1.

While no suspects have been publicly identified, and she has not been found, cadaver dogs had been deployed earlier in the case, according to Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos. They have not been visible in weeks.

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A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office remains outside of Nancy Guthrie’s home, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil; Nathan Congleton/NBC via Getty Images)

“They are available if needed in the future,” he told Fox News Digital.

There are a number of reasons not to be using cadaver dogs at this stage in the investigation, according to Betsy Brantner Smith, a retired police sergeant and spokeswoman for the National Police Association.

NANCY GUTHRIE’S NEIGHBORS FLAG CAMERA GLITCHING, EXPERTS EXPLAIN WI-FI JAMMING

Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)

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One would be if there’s credible information that Guthrie is still alive.

“Anything is possible,” Nanos told Fox News Digital last week, adding that he would not discuss specific leads or evidence in the case.

DNA IS STILL PENDING AS VOLUNTEERS FIND ANOTHER GLOVE IN THE SEARCH FOR NANCY GUTHRIE

Brantner Smith, who is not involved in the case, said departments may hold back K-9 resources for several reasons. Those could be that authorities don’t have a good idea of where to search, they think she might be concealed in a place where dogs would have a hard time detecting her, or they believe she’s been taken to Mexico, according to Brantner Smith.

Law enforcement agents walk around the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

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“I do believe that the sheriff’s department has much more information that they are not releasing to the public,” she told Fox News Digital. “And I’m not sure at this point why that would be, unless they have a solid suspect and don’t want to tip them off.”

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Most departments, including the Pima County Sheriff’s, don’t have their own cadaver dogs and borrow them from state and federal authorities or neighboring jurisdictions.

An investigator looks inside a culvert in the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

In Guthrie’s case, the sheriff’s department sought K-9 assistance from the local Border Patrol office earlier in the investigation.

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PCSD deferred further comment on the K-9s to Customs and Border Protection, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office walks around Nancy Guthrie’s home on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

The biggest lead so far has been Nest camera video showing a masked intruder on Guthrie’s doorstep the morning of her abduction.

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He is described as about 5 feet, 9 inches to 5 feet, 10 inches tall and of medium build.

Nancy Guthrie, 84, has been missing from her Arizona home since Jan. 31, 2026. (Don Arnold/WireImage/Getty Images)

He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack.

Authorities have said they won’t consider the case cold until they run out of viable leads to follow up on — and tens of thousands have come in so far.

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Savannah Guthrie has asked anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.

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There’s a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information that leads to her mother’s recovery.



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