Southwest
Fox News Poll: Trump hits 51% support in Arizona, up from 49% in March
Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in the battleground state of Arizona, as an increasing number say their financial situation is worsening and a majority trust the former president to handle the economy, according to a new Fox News survey.
Trump is up by 5 points among Arizona registered voters (51%-46%) in a head-to-head rematch. In March, he was ahead of Biden 49%-45%. While the race is within the survey’s margin of error, it is noteworthy that support for Trump is above 50% and his advantage has been stable in a state Biden won by a razor-thin margin in 2020.
Among the 67% who say they are extremely motivated to vote in the race, the former president is again favored by 5 points (52%- 47%). That also holds true when third-party candidates are included, with Trump over Biden by 46%-41%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 8%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West both at 1%.
Currently, Kennedy and West are not officially on the Arizona ballot; Stein is.
The survey was conducted June 1-4, so all interviews were completed after Trump’s New York hush-money trial verdict and almost all were done before Biden’s executive order on immigration announcement Tuesday.
Here’s what gives Trump the edge over Biden in the head-to-head contest.
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Women back Biden by 4 points, but Trump’s margin with men (+15) is nearly four times larger.
While Biden is up by 12 points among urban voters, Trump’s lead among rural voters is more than twice that (+29 points). Trump also has the edge among suburban voters (+3), despite Biden’s double-digit lead among suburban women (+12).
Trump is up by 21 points among voters under 30 and the candidates tie among those ages 65 and over. Compared to 2020, that means Biden traded his wide support among less reliable young voters for a small increase in support among more reliable 65+ voters. So far, that trade does not appear to be working out.
Hispanic voters favor Biden by 8 points (he won them by more than twice that in 2020), while the larger group of White voters goes for Trump by 9 (consistent with 2020).
White voters without a college degree prefer Trump by 21 points, while Whites with a degree back Biden by 8 points. Both of those margins are larger than in 2020.
Trump narrowly keeps more of his 2020 voters (95%) than Biden (93%) and while Independents split 45% each, Trump receives a touch more support among Republicans (93%) than the president does among Democrats (92%). It helps Trump that more Arizona voters currently identify as Republicans than Democrats.
“There is a small but important shift away from the Democrats among Hispanic voters since 2020,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “It matters nationally for Biden, and there’s an argument it is going to specifically cost them Arizona.”
Plus, Trump is seen as the better option on two of the biggest issues of the campaign. He is favored over Biden by 20 points on handling immigration/border security, by 15 points on the economy, and by 11 points on the war in Gaza. On the other side, more voters trust Biden on climate change (+11 points), abortion (+6), health care (+4), and election integrity (+4).
In March, 40% of Arizonans felt like they were falling behind financially. That’s up to 48% now — and most of them back Trump (72%) over Biden (25%).
Biden also pays the price in his overall job rating, as more disapprove (58%) than approve (42%) of his performance by 16 points.
For comparison, ratings for Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs are net positive by 15 points: 54% approve vs. 39% disapprove. Her approval is higher than Biden’s by 20 points among Republicans, 13 points among independents, and 4 points among Democrats. Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 election with 50.3% of the vote.
A state constitutional amendment establishing the right to abortion is expected to be on the Arizona ballot this fall. Seventy percent say they would vote yes on such a measure, including 53% of Republicans. Notably, about 4 in 10 “yes” voters support Trump in the two-way race.
“The economy and immigration are big problems for Biden in Arizona, but he has some assets and opportunities,” says Anderson. “The popular Democratic governor could be an effective advocate and a ballot question to protect abortion rights could drive favorable turnout — but the bottom line is Arizona looks tough for Biden.”
A 51% majority thinks Trump’s hush-money trial was fair, and among Arizonans who say his conviction will matter some or a great deal to their vote (just over one-third of the electorate), Biden is heavily favored over Trump (69%-28%).
Those most likely to say Trump’s conviction will make a difference to their vote choice include suburban women, younger voters, Hispanics, and Democrats.
Among the small subgroup of self-identified Independents (who don’t lean toward the Democrats or the Republicans), nearly 6 in 10 think Trump got a fair trial, 4 in 10 say his conviction will matter to their vote, 5 in 10 are extremely motivated to vote, and they split their support 45%-45% between Biden and Trump.
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Poll-pourri
So-called double haters (voters who have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump) favor Biden over Trump by 15 points and most of them think Trump’s hush-money trial was fair (69%) — however only 32% say they are extremely motivated to vote compared to 67% of voters overall.
Views of Trump as a person are net negative by 4 points (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Biden is underwater by four times that — 17 points (41%-58%). That’s a reversal from four years ago, when Biden was net positive by 2 points and Trump was negative by 10 (June 2020).
By a 15-point margin, more Arizonans have an unfavorable than favorable view of Kennedy, with nearly one in five unable to rate him.
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Conducted June 1-4, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 Arizona registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents were given the option of completing the interview in English or Spanish and speaking with live interviewers on landlines (168) and cellphones (678) or completing the survey online after receiving a text (249). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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Southwest
Arizona governor vetoes Charlie Kirk memorial license plate, sparking GOP outrage: ‘This bill falls short’
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Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, a move Republicans are blasting as a stunning act of partisanship after his assassination.
Kirk, who was assassinated while speaking at a Sept. 10 Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University, lived in Arizona with his wife, Erika, and two children.
The proposed specialty plate, referred to as the “Charlie Kirk memorial” plate or the “Conservative grassroots network special plate,” featured a photo of the late Kirk and the TPUSA logo in front of an American flag background.
Below the license plate number were the words “FOR CHARLIE.”
A custom Arizona license plate, featuring a Turning Point USA and Charlie Kirk design, shared by state Sen. Jake Hoffman. (Senator Jake Hoffman via X)
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Of the $25 fee required for the plate, $17 would be an annual donation deposited into the Conservative Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund, according to the legislation.
While the recipient of the Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund was not explicitly designated as TPUSA in the bill, it noted the director of the fund would allocate revenue annually to a nonprofit organization, founded in 2012, that focuses on restoring traditional values, maintaining a grassroots activist network on high school and college campuses in Arizona, and assisting college students with voter registration and absentee ballots.
People gather at a memorial to mourn Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk outside Turning Point USA headquarters Sept. 12, 2025, in Phoenix. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)
TPUSA, founded by Kirk in 2012, is well known for its grassroots activist networks on high school and college campuses. It is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
The $25 fee and annual $17 donation are consistent with the fees for the other 109 nonprofit license plates offered by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT).
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The state Senate passed the bill, 16-2, with the House of Representatives voting 31-23 in favor prior to Hobbs’ veto.
Specialty plates in Arizona are authorized by the legislature and sent to the governor to be signed into law. They have been offered since 1989.
In a letter explaining the veto, Hobbs cited concerns with the bill “bring[ing] people together,” claiming it would “insert politics into a function of government that should remain nonpartisan.”
Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
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“Charlie Kirk’s assassination is tragic and a horrifying act of violence,” Hobbs wrote. “In America, we resolve our political differences at the ballot box. No matter who it targets, political violence puts us all in harm’s way and damages our sacred democratic institutions.
“I will continue working toward solutions that bring people together, but this bill falls short of that standard.”
Specialty license plates with political interests already approved by the state include the “Choose Life” Plate, which benefits the Arizona Life Coalition and its mission to promote anti-abortion advocacy and education; the “In God We Trust” Plate, which benefits conservative Christian legal advocacy group Alliance Defending Freedom; and the Arizona Realtors’ “Homes for All” Plate, which funds affordable housing projects.
Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, speaks during the Turning Point Action conference in 2023 in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Lynne Sladky/AP Photo)
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Another approved plate, “Alice Cooper’s Solid Rock Plate,” which benefits Solid Rock Teen Centers, features a portrait of the legendary musician, who has made political comments about social issues including gender identity.
Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who sponsored the bill, posted a fiery statement on social media after the governor’s action, claiming her “grotesque partisanship knows no bounds.”
“Even in the wake of a global civil rights leader — an Arizona resident and her own constituent — being assassinated in broad daylight for his defense of the First Amendment, Hobbs couldn’t find the human decency to put her far-Left extremism aside simply to allow those how wish to honor him to do so,” Hoffman wrote. “Katie Hobbs will forever be known as a stain on the pages of Arizona’s story.”
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On Saturday, TPUSA COO Tyler Bowyer shared an X post that said, “Deport Katie Hobbs.”
TPUSA, Bowyer and Hobbs’ office did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.
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Southwest
Air Force veteran warns ‘cartels don’t collapse — they fracture’ after notorious drug lord killed
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Nearly two weeks after Mexican forces killed notorious cartel boss Ruben “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, questions remain about how the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) will respond and whether the blow will meaningfully disrupt the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
Carlos De La Cruz, a 20-year U.S. Air Force veteran who deployed after 9/11 and later served along the southern border, told Fox News the cartel leader’s death marked a major victory, but warned Americans should not mistake it for the end of the fight.
“When I say that this is a significant win, I mean it,” De La Cruz said. “El Mencho ran one of the most violent cartels on the planet.”
Oseguera, who rose to prominence in the post–El Chapo era, oversaw CJNG’s aggressive expansion across Mexico and into key trafficking corridors feeding U.S. drug markets. Under his leadership, the cartel became a central architect of fentanyl and methamphetamine trafficking and drew a $15 million U.S. reward for information leading to his capture.
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Smoke rises from burning vehicles after a military operation that a government source said killed Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho,” in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Screen grab obtained from a social media video. @morelifediares via Instagram/YouTube via Reuters)
But De La Cruz cautioned that removing a cartel kingpin does not dismantle the organization.
“Cartels don’t collapse when you just cut the head off — they fracture,” he said. “And part of that fracture is going to see a lot of short-term violence while all these factions fight over territory.”
Following Oseguera’s killing on Feb. 22, the U.S. State Department issued travel alerts in multiple Mexican states, citing road blockages and criminal activity tied to security operations, underscoring concerns about instability in the aftermath.
Drawing on his military background studying enemy command structures, De La Cruz described the cartel fight as a long-term campaign requiring sustained pressure.
A mughsot of Ruben “Nemesio” Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” beside graffiti depicting the letters of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, covering the facade of an abandoned home in El Limoncito, in the Michoacan state of Mexico. (Eduardo Verdugo/AP Images; Drug Enforcement Administration)
“You don’t win a war with just one airstrike,” he said. “The goal is dismantling the networks and going after their financing.”
De La Cruz, who is running for Congress and is the brother of Texas Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, argued that CJNG’s Foreign Terrorist Organization designation gives U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies expanded tools to target cartel infrastructure and financial pipelines.
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A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the cartel leader’s death. (Armando Solis/AP Photo)
But he stressed that the fentanyl crisis should be viewed as a domestic security emergency, not a distant foreign problem.
“For decades, they were using their territories as launching pads to pump chemical weapons into America — because that’s exactly what fentanyl is,” he said.
De La Cruz, who said he worked side by side with Customs agents while deployed to the border, warned that cartel networks are highly adaptive and that any gains could be temporary without sustained follow-through.
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Smoke rises after violence hit Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. (Courtesy of Scott Posilkin)
“These networks, they’re going to adjust. They’re going to adapt and they’re going to adapt quickly,” he said. “We have to continue to go after the money launderers, especially on our side of the border, because that’s the full fight.”
While Oseguera’s death removes one of the most dominant figures in Mexico’s criminal underworld, De La Cruz said the mission is personal.
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“I took an oath to defend this country,” he said. “And I intend to stand by that oath.”
Fox News Digital’s Greg Wehner contributed to this report.
Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to stepheny.price@fox.com.
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Southwest
Search for Nancy Guthrie enters 5th week, cadaver dogs on hold
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TUCSON, Ariz. — More than five weeks after the suspected abduction of Nancy Guthrie — the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie — Arizona authorities say cadaver dogs used earlier in the investigation are not currently being deployed as the search continues.
The elder Guthrie is believed to have been kidnapped from her home in the Catalina Foothills in northern Tucson around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1.
While no suspects have been publicly identified, and she has not been found, cadaver dogs had been deployed earlier in the case, according to Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos. They have not been visible in weeks.
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A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office remains outside of Nancy Guthrie’s home, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil; Nathan Congleton/NBC via Getty Images)
“They are available if needed in the future,” he told Fox News Digital.
There are a number of reasons not to be using cadaver dogs at this stage in the investigation, according to Betsy Brantner Smith, a retired police sergeant and spokeswoman for the National Police Association.
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Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)
One would be if there’s credible information that Guthrie is still alive.
“Anything is possible,” Nanos told Fox News Digital last week, adding that he would not discuss specific leads or evidence in the case.
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Brantner Smith, who is not involved in the case, said departments may hold back K-9 resources for several reasons. Those could be that authorities don’t have a good idea of where to search, they think she might be concealed in a place where dogs would have a hard time detecting her, or they believe she’s been taken to Mexico, according to Brantner Smith.
Law enforcement agents walk around the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)
“I do believe that the sheriff’s department has much more information that they are not releasing to the public,” she told Fox News Digital. “And I’m not sure at this point why that would be, unless they have a solid suspect and don’t want to tip them off.”
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Most departments, including the Pima County Sheriff’s, don’t have their own cadaver dogs and borrow them from state and federal authorities or neighboring jurisdictions.
An investigator looks inside a culvert in the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)
In Guthrie’s case, the sheriff’s department sought K-9 assistance from the local Border Patrol office earlier in the investigation.
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PCSD deferred further comment on the K-9s to Customs and Border Protection, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office walks around Nancy Guthrie’s home on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)
The biggest lead so far has been Nest camera video showing a masked intruder on Guthrie’s doorstep the morning of her abduction.
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He is described as about 5 feet, 9 inches to 5 feet, 10 inches tall and of medium build.
Nancy Guthrie, 84, has been missing from her Arizona home since Jan. 31, 2026. (Don Arnold/WireImage/Getty Images)
He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack.
Authorities have said they won’t consider the case cold until they run out of viable leads to follow up on — and tens of thousands have come in so far.
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Savannah Guthrie has asked anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.
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There’s a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information that leads to her mother’s recovery.
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