WASHINGTON – By the standard set over recent years, this winter has already not been so bad snowfall wise. Washington, D.C. has actually already picked up more snow this winter than we have totaled in five of the past seven winters. 

Many came into this winter with much higher expectations, however, especially since many winter outlooks, including our own, highlighted the increased risks for a blizzard this winter. 

Is that risk still on the table? Or has this winter given us all it has to offer already, with spring getting closer by the day? 

February is often a key month for seasonal snow forecasting. Why? Historically, it is the snowiest month of the year. Despite also being the shortest month of the year, the D.C. region averages 5.0″ of snow throughout the month. 

HISTORIC DC FEBRUARY SNOW TOTALS

Some of the region’s largest snow events have been hit during the month as well, such as the 2003 Presidents’ Day Blizzard and Snowmageddon back in 2010. The month has featured some monster snows, most common in El Niño years. In fact, February during an El Niño winter averages nearly two more inches compared to an average February. A moderate to strong El Niño, which we are currently in the midst of, averages nearly double the typical snowfall. 

For fun though, I did also look at the El Niño cases that did not produce much snow (less than 10″) through the start of February, and these winters did average less than normal snow throughout the month of February. 

If we get a little deeper into the averages though, we do find that there are extreme years that drive those averages up a little bit, like nearly 29″ of snow in February 2003 and 32″ of snow in February 2010. Such extremes will have an impact on how an “average” looks. 

READ MORE: DMV Winter 2023-2024 Outlook: Why we’re expecting more snow, chance for blizzards in DC this winter

READ MORE: Winter weather in DC, Maryland & Virginia: How much snow have we seen?

HOW MUCH SNOW DID DC GET IN PAST YEARS?

So really diving into the numbers, of the twenty-six El Niño Februarys on the record, only six have failed to put down any measurable snow at all (trace or less) during the month of February. That is not to say that most El Niño Februarys end up with a big snow though. In fact, only a little over 30% of El Niño Februarys end up with a major snow exceeding at least 6″ in Washington, D.C. Not a lot, but compared to the average February, a one-in-three shot is an above normal shot as far as winters go around here. 

The data shows that the majority of years, about 62% of them, end up with between 3-6″ of snow. Coincidentally, we need just about half a foot more of snow to verify an “above normal snowfall” season here. 

One thing that is undeniable is that, despite only a handful of it falling as measurable snow, it has been one of the stormiest winters on record here in the D.C. region. In just the last two months, we have completely erased the drought that plagued our region since the summer of 2023. 

We received just as much rain in December and January as we picked up in the entirety of the summer months, which is quite a rare feat. In fact, this was only the third time in recorded D.C. weather history that the city picked up over a foot of rain since December 1st. January alone featured nearly half a foot of rain, which is a feat we have not done in forty-five years. It has been an incredibly wet winter. 

While an active storm track is typically a great thing for snow, it is not a guarantee that a big blizzard awaits in February. In fact, of all the years when at least 10″ of rain fell in December and January, only one case featured a big blizzard in the month of February. 

That was back in February 1979, when a storm around Presidents’ Day dropped widespread 20″ snowfall amounts around the DC region. Coincidentally, 1979 was also the last year that saw half a foot of rain in just January alone, so there is some connection there! 

HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD DC SEE?

Despite the stormy winter, all indications are that February is going to start off on a relatively quiet note. Unlike the middle of January where we had a strong connection to Arctic cold, at the moment we do not have any strong atmospheric mechanisms to pull stronger cold out of Canada and pull it eastward. While we will occasionally get brief pushes of winter cold, the first two weeks of the new month really do not offer too much in the way of excitement in terms of cold, snow, or even rain for that matter. 

There was one storm that we are keeping an eye on into early next week, in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. Over this past weekend, there were several computer guidance indications that this storm could take a turn north up the East Coast and provide another decent shot at some snowfall for much of the region. 

More recent indications have been for this storm to pass well to the south of the Mid-Atlantic though. We will, of course, let you know if there are last-minute shifts on this track, but at the moment we favor this one to miss our region entirely, leaving us dry into the first full week of February. 

While the pattern does start quiet at the beginning of the month, the vast majority of longer-range guidance suggests we will be in for at least one more round of sustained winter cold, and with it perhaps some better shots of accumulating snow as we approach the middle of the month. 

Various models have suggested that blocking patterns will redevelop over the Arctic regions after about the 10th of the month. Similar in nature to what we experienced in the middle of January, these blocks should help provide stronger and more prolonged surges of cold air into the eastern United States. At the same time, most show the active storm track returning to the pattern. 

At the same time, a climate feature known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO for short) will be swinging into what is known as the colder phases. You can read about the details of this signal in our winter weather outlook but know that when is in the aptly named colder phases that stronger cold air transport from Canada into the United States is much more common. 

From a snow lovers’ perspective, it is an exciting pattern to see on paper. Computer models have had their struggles this winter though. So, until we actually see the guidance roll over from the longer range, into the shorter range, we will be a little skeptical. 

However, when we look at statistics and history, February is the most commonly colder than normal month during an El Niño year. I personally do not think that we will add any snow in the first ten days of the month at least, however, but I also do not believe we have seen our final snow of the season yet either. 

We will look for the pattern to get more exciting towards the middle of the month. Stay tuned…