Earlier in the week, we said the odds favored more rain than snow for a storm expected in the D.C. region this weekend. That remains the case, with most areas probably only seeing a little snow and sleet Saturday morning before changing to mostly rain in the afternoon. While some slick spots are possible, the snow should have limited impact on roads because temperatures will be at or above freezing, except far north and west of the District where heavier snow and icy travel is possible.
Washington, D.C
Saturday storm could briefly bring snow to D.C. area before flip to rain
There’s a decent chance that Washington’s streak of 717 days and Baltimore’s streak of 705 days since recording at least one inch of snow in a calendar day continues, based on statistics compiled by Capital Weather Gang’s Ian Livingston. Dulles International Airport has a chance to end its streak of 662 days since last seeing an inch of snow, but even that’s not a sure bet.
The rain could be heavy at times Saturday afternoon into the evening. Total liquid precipitation (combination of rain and melted snow) could reach near or over one inch, helping January get off to a wet start after one of the region’s wettest Decembers on record, and with another heavy rainstorm possible next week.
8 to 11 a.m.: Precipitation should arrive from southwest to northeast, starting as snow and sleet north and west of downtown Washington, and a mix of rain, sleet and snow downtown and to the south and east. In Southern Maryland, precipitation will be mainly rain. Temperatures: Low to mid-30s.
11 a.m. to 4 p.m.: Snow and sleet should change to mostly rain from southeast to northwest, except far northwest areas (western Loudoun and Frederick counties), where sleet and freezing rain could linger. Temperatures: Low to mid-30s.
4 to 9 p.m.: Rain expected, moderate to heavy at times. There’s a possible wintry mix for the far northwest areas. Temperatures: Mid-to upper 30s (low 30s far northwest).
9 p.m. to 1 a.m. Sunday: Rain should taper from southwest to northeast. Some wintry mix could linger in far northwest areas. Temperatures: Mid- to upper 30s (low 30s far northwest).
D.C., Alexandria and Arlington, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Stafford counties: A little snow and sleet is possible starting midmorning or so, then mostly rain after 1 p.m. Roads should mainly be just wet.
Montgomery, Fairfax, Prince William, Fauquier, Howard counties: Snow and sleet is expected to start around midmorning and may cause some slick spots, especially on untreated roads in northern and western sections. It should turn to mostly rain after 3 p.m.
Frederick, Loudoun, Carroll counties: Snow and sleet are expected to start mid- to late morning and could cause some slick spots. Some roads, especially untreated ones, could become slick. It should turn to mostly rain after 5 p.m., but a wintry mix and some icy spots could linger into early Sunday morning, especially in far northwest areas.
Calvert, King George, St. Mary’s counties: Mostly or all rain in the forecast.
This storm just won’t be strong enough and temperatures not cold enough to produce significant snowfall in the D.C. area. While temperatures should dip to Friday night lows in the mid-20s to near 30, they should quickly rebound to near or above freezing before precipitation arrives mid- to late Saturday morning.
If the storm were stronger, it could generate heavier precipitation that would help to cool temperatures back down to near or below freezing, increasing the potential for more significant snow accumulation. The storm is predicted to intensify as it heads to the north, potentially dumping several inches of snow just north and west of Interstate 95 from New York City to Boston.
“If you are a snow lover, this not the storm for you, as surface temperatures near to above freezing and a flow of warmer air from the south at about 5,000 feet in altitude will keep the precipitation mostly rain east of D.C., and likely cause the snow west of the city to change to rain,” said Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. “That should limit snowfall accumulations to at most an inch or two in the north and west suburbs.”
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.