Virginia
Virginia vs. Miami – FL Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-28-2023
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The Virginia Cavaliers will visit the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday for an Atlantic Coast Conference clash at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Virginia (2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS) upset North Carolina 31-27 last Saturday. The Cavs are 1-2 in ACC play this season.
Miami (5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS) beat Clemson 28-20 last weekend. The Canes are also 1-2 in conference competition.
Miami is an 18.5-point spread favorite and the game total is 47.5 points.
Injury Report
Cavaliers: RB Xavier Brown (arm) and LB Josh Ahern (thumb) are out. LB Langston Love (foot) is questionable to suit up.
Hurricanes: RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (foot) and RB Henry Parrish Jr. (undisclosed) are questionable to play. QB Tyler Van Dyke is probable (leg).
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Can UVA string together three wins?
Virginia shocked the betting world last weekend, upsetting undefeated North Carolina as 24-point underdogs. The Cavaliers scored 14 fourth-quarter points to get out to an early lead and piled on 17 points in the second half to down the tenth-ranked Tar Heels. UVA dominated the time of possession and came up with big stops on defense, holding UNC 4-for-13 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down conversions. It was the Cavaliers’ second win of the year and their first over an FBS foe.
Senior quarterback Tony Muskett (781 passing yards, six TDs, and three INTs in 2023) led Virginia to victory on Saturday. His top receiving threat is senior wide receiver Malik Washington (56 receptions for 783 yards and six scores). Senior running backs Perris Jones (55 carries for 302 yards and two TDs) and Kobe Pace (70 carries for 241 yards) pace the Cavs’ ground game.
UVA scores 23.6 points per game (96th) and averages 361.3 total yards (89th), including 243.4 passing yards (55th) and 117.9 rushing yards (105th). It converts 36.3 percent of its third-down attempts (86th) and scores on 80.9 percent of its visits to the red zone (82nd).
The Virginia defense surrenders 31.1 points (112th) and 395.6 total yards (95th) per game, including 223.4 passing yards (66th) and 172.1 rushing yards (104th). They have seven sacks and four interceptions this season. The Cavs’ opponents have converted 40.2 percent of their third downs (83rd) and scored on 91.3 percent of their trips to the red zone (106th).
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Can the Cavs move the ball vs. Miami’s elite run defense?
Miami bounced back from a two-game losing streak with a double-overtime win over Clemson last weekend. The Canes pulled it off without starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, rallying from a ten-point fourth-quarter deficit behind freshman QB Emory Williams and a productive ground game (38 carries for 211 yards). Miami’s stout run defense also had an impact, holding the Tigers to 31 rushing yards on 34 carries. Clemson turned the ball over three times and lost the time of possession battle by 15 minutes.
Van Dyke is “good to go” on Saturday against Virginia, per Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The junior signal-caller has passed for 1,721 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. He has completed 70.5 percent of his passes and posted an 81.6 QBR, 11th-best in the country.
Van Dyke’s preferred receiving targets are junior wide receivers Xavier Restrepo (54 receptions for 600 yards and four TDs), Jacolby George (31 receptions for 467 yards and five TDs), and Colbie Young (29 receptions for 394 yards and four TDs). Junior running back Harry Parrish Jr. (72 carries for 452 yards and four scores) and sophomore running back Donald Chaney Jr. (73 carries for 375 yards and two scores) pace the Hurricanes’ rushing attack.
Miami scores 36.3 points per game (16th) and averages 481.9 total yards (10th), including 288.0 passing yards (25th) and 193.9 rushing yards (23rd). It converts 43.0 percent of its third downs (36th) and scores on 88.8 percent of its red zone trips (31st).
The Hurricanes give up 19.1 points (25th) and 313.6 total yards (22nd) per game, including 234.0 passing yards (75th) and 79.6 rushing yards (8th). They have 21 sacks and seven interceptions this season. Miami’s opponents have converted 33.7 percent of their third-down attempts (31st) and scored on 78.2 percent of their red zone visits (44th).
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The Hurricanes may be without their top running back Parrish Jr. and Van Dyke is playing through an injury. That isn’t promising for Miami bettors at 18.5, as the offense didn’t exactly light it up last week, scoring seven points in the first three quarters. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, showed they’re capable of playing with a ranked program in their victory over tenth-ranked UNC.
The UVA defense came to play against future first-round pick Drake Maye and the Tar Heels, helping the Cavs dominate the time of possession. I figure that will be their mission again on Saturday, as UVA can keep this game close by bleeding the game clock and running the football. Miami is brimming with talent, but it hasn’t proven that in ACC play. With its win over North Carolina at its back, Virginia will make enough plays to cover.
Prediction: Virginia +18.5
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The Tar Heels didn’t destroy the Cavaliers, and I don’t believe the Hurricanes will, either. Van Dyke has played well when healthy, but can we expect him to play like his usual self on Saturday? His undisclosed injury only kept him out for one week, but that doesn’t mean he’s 100 percent healthy. Besides, with his top running back either unavailable or playing through injury, he may not have a complementary ground game to rely on for balance. In any case, the UVA defense should benefit by getting off the field on third down, as it did versus the Heels (4-for-13 on third down).
Miami’s defense is stout, and while it could run into some trouble if the Cavaliers dominate the time of possession, it would shock me if they ran for over 200 yards on the Canes’ 8th-ranked run defense. Miami’s secondary isn’t elite, but the Hurricanes will pressure (21 sacks) Muskett, who has been sacked 12 times and thrown three picks in his last three games.
I like the Cavs to cover the spread in a lower-scoring game between conference foes. Bet the under at 47.5 total points!
Prediction: Under 47.5