With just one game left in the 2024-2025 men’s college basketball regular season, let’s take a look at the possible seeding scenarios for the Virginia Cavaliers in next week’s ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament in Charlotte.

When we did this exercise last year, Virginia’s situation was quite simple. The Cavaliers had already clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament and could only finish as either the No. 3 seed or the No. 4 seed and only two other teams mattered for potential tiebreaker scenarios. Well, this year, not only are the Hoos nowhere near the double-bye, but their seeding scenarios for the ACC Tournament are very, very complicated.

We’re going to try to simplify things a bit and give you all some clarity on where Virginia is likely to end up and what other ACC teams UVA fans should be rooting for and against on Saturday while they are waiting to watch the Cavaliers’ regular season finale at Syracuse at 8pm.

First, let’s take a look at the current standings, with each team assigned a seed based on their conference record and applying relevant tiebreaking procedures as if the ACC Tournament started today.

1. Duke (18-1)
2. Louisville (17-2)
3. Clemson (17-2)
4. North Carolina (13-6)
5. SMU (13-6)
6. Wake Forest (12-7)
7. Stanford (11-8)
8. Georgia Tech (10-9)
9. Virginia (8-11)
10. Virginia Tech (8-11)
11. Florida State (7-12)
12. Notre Dame (7-12)
13. Pittsburgh (7-12)
14. Syracuse (6-13)
15. California (6-13)
16. NC State (5-14)
17. Boston College (4-15)
18. Miami (2-17)

Let’s also take a look at what the bracket would look like for the ACC Tournament if it started today (March 6).

As things currently stand, Virginia is tied for ninth place with in-state rival Virginia Tech at 8-11 in ACC play and the two teams split the regular season series against each other. If the season ended today, the Cavaliers would win the tiebreaker over the Hokies due to having a win over a higher-seeded ACC team (Wake Forest) and would get the No. 9 seed and, more importantly, the final first round bye in the ACC tournament. If both teams win on Saturday, they would still be tied for ninth place, but Virginia Tech would win the tiebreaker for the No. 9 seed as the Hokies would have the better win, having knocked off Clemson in that scenario.

So the simplest way forward for Virginia is to win at Syracuse on Saturday night and root for a Virginia Tech loss at Clemson (6pm ET on Saturday). If that happens, UVA gets the No. 9 seed. If both Virginia and Virginia Tech win, the Hokies get the No. 9 seed and the Cavaliers get the No. 10 seed.

That part is fairly straightforward and easy to keep up with. Where things get messy is the scenario where Virginia loses at Syracuse on Saturday, as that brings into the equation three other teams – Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Notre Dame – who could potentially finish tied with Virginia (and potentially Virginia Tech) in the standings, creating seemingly endless permutations of tiebreakers featuring two, three, four, or even five total teams.

Here is who each of those teams are playing on the final day of the regular season:
4pm: SMU at Florida State (ESPNU)
4pm: California at Notre Dame (ACC Network)
6pm: Virginia Tech at Clemson (ESPNU)
6pm: Boston College at Pittsburgh (ACC Network)
8pm: Virginia at Syracuse (ACC Network)

Now, ordinarily, we would go through each of these scenarios and look at every possible combination of outcomes for each of those five games to determine UVA’s resulting seed in each of those scenarios. There are 22 unique scenarios based strictly on the outcomes the four non-Virginia games listed above (assuming a UVA loss). But the problem is, there are scenarios where the first few tiebreaking procedures (head-to-head, record against the group of tied teams) do not completely break the ties and you then have to move to record against the highest-seeded teams in the ACC. Since we do not know what the final pecking order of the ACC standings will look like (even Duke could finish as low as the No. 3 seed), that means there are hundreds of permutations of scenarios for where Virginia could finish in the final standings.

So, rather than exploring those endless possibilities, we’re going to summarize Virginia’s position going into the final day of the regular season:

Scenario 1: Virginia beats Syracuse, Virginia Tech loses to Clemson

UVA finishes with a 9-11 ACC record and sits alone in ninth place in the final standings.

Outcome: Virginia clinches the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye in the ACC Tournament with no tiebreakers required.

Scenario 2: Virginia beats Syracuse, Virginia Tech beats Clemson

Virginia and Virginia Tech remain tied for ninth place with equivalent 9-11 records. Since the Hoos and Hokies split their regular season series, the next tiebreaker is record against the highest-seeded common opponent in the ACC. Virginia Tech would win that tiebreaker in this scenario due to its win over Clemson.

Outcome: Virginia Tech clinches the No. 9 seed, while Virginia gets the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament.

If Virginia loses to Syracuse, several scenarios regarding Virginia Tech (if the Hokies lose) and Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Notre Dame (if any/all of them win) come into play. Virginia went 1-1 against Virginia Tech and beat Pittsburgh and Florida State head-to-head and lost to Notre Dame. So should the Cavaliers lose at Syracuse, it’s still in UVA’s best interest for each of those other teams to lose, but the most advantageous scenarios for Virginia involve losses by Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.

As far as we can tell, Virginia can fall no lower than the No. 11 seed, while the ceiling for the Cavaliers remains the No. 9 seed and picking up that bye into Wednesday’s second round at the ACC Tournament.

Revisiting the Coaching Carousel: Who is UVA Competing With This Offseason?

What the ACC Tournament Bracket Would Look Like if It Started Today

Revisiting Potential UVA Basketball Head Coaching Candidates

Can Virginia Still Land Chance Mallory? Latest Recruiting Buzz

Virginia to Host “The Basketball Tournament”, Kyle Guy & Kihei Clark Set to Play