How Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi State take the next step? Recruiting mailbag

Welcome back to another recruiting mailbag. We’re getting so close to the start of official visits in June, which means things are about to get fun (and maybe a little weird). This is the time of year when the dominoes really start to fall and we see more and more prospects making their decisions before their senior seasons begin. Get ready for the drama.

Thank you as always for your questions and for reading our recruiting coverage at The Athletic. Let’s dive in.

Note: Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity. 

Should the Hokie Nation read much of anything into Brent Pry’s inability to lure Troy Everett from the portal back to his home area of Western Virginia? Was this just a case of the NIL opportunities in Norman, Okla., being too much to turn down? What can VT do to keep up and fulfill Pry’s objective of keeping Virginia kids home? — Tom W. 

A little background to kick us off: Everett, an offensive lineman out of Appalachian State, was a three-star prospect out of high school who became one of the more desirable targets in the transfer portal when he entered last month. He is from Roanoke, only about 45 minutes from Virginia Tech’s campus, but he committed to Venables and Oklahoma earlier this month.

To Virginia Tech’s credit, Pry and the Hokies were all over Everett from the moment he entered his name into the portal. Everett told The Athletic’s Max Olson last month that he sent out his Twitter post with his announcement at 10:15 a.m. on April 15 and officially had his name registered in the portal by 11:37 a.m. His first call — almost immediately — was from Virginia Tech. The Hokies were in the mix as a finalist, along with Missouri. Louisville and Cincinnati also got him on campus for official visits.

But the problem for the Hokies was that OU simply had a better pitch. Even if the idea of coming back home was tempting, the Sooners still have better resources, a richer tradition and a higher ceiling for a prospect like Everett, who still has three years of eligibility remaining. Bill Bedenbaugh is one of the most respected offensive line coaches in the country, and with the Sooners heading to the SEC, Everett will routinely get to show NFL scouts how he measures up against some of the best defensive linemen in the nation. Fit is also crucial for any transfer, as is momentum. Oklahoma and Virginia Tech struggled in 2022 under new coaching staffs, but the Sooners won six games to Virginia Tech’s three and just signed the nation’s No. 4 recruiting class in 2023. Virginia Tech’s class came in at No. 37.

This doesn’t seem to be a case of name, image and likeness tipping the scales. OU just had a stronger brand to sell, and it certainly didn’t hurt that the Sooners got Everett’s first official visit when he flew to Norman for the spring game. This is also about playing time, and Everett clearly felt comfortable with Venables’ plan for him to potentially play guard this season, then slide back to tackle later in his career.

Virginia Tech — and every non-SEC/Big Ten school, for that matter — is in a precarious position simply because it feels as though schools not in one of the Power 2 conferences are going to get left behind. Not just from a revenue standpoint but from a perception one, too. Top recruits want to play at the most exciting programs, regardless of geography. If that’s the inevitable reality, there’s not much the Hokies can do. They can, however, help themselves by winning. Or at least winning more than they are currently.

Maryland seems to be on an upswing under coach Mike Locksley. This seems to be despite a few high-profile, last-minute, major recruiting wins over his first few seasons, though, none of which seems to have really come close to panning out. (Rakim Jarrett in particular just went undrafted this weekend.) What’s the next realistic step for UMD in recruiting to find more successes, particularly in a Big Ten that will unshackle it somewhat from the East division heavyweights soon? — Matthew L. 

A key for Maryland is to retain the elite recruits it is signing. No program has a 100 percent retention rate, but the Terps seem to have been hit hard by losing some of their top signees. Locksley signed three top-125 players in the Class of 2021: five-star linebacker Terrence Lewis, four-star edge Chop Robinson and four-star linebacker Branden Jenkins. None lasted more than one season at Maryland. That can’t happen, especially for a program that doesn’t sign top-100 players regularly. (And you can argue that Lewis and Jenkins weren’t big losses since they didn’t develop into stars after leaving Maryland, but it’s still important to retain and develop your top signees.)

You mention Jarrett, one of the top recruits who did stay at Maryland. I don’t think it’s fair to say he didn’t pan out. Yes, he went undrafted, but he was productive in his three years at Maryland and was regarded as one of the league’s most dangerous playmakers.

Maryland is in a tough spot because as long as the state and its surrounding areas produce top talent, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are going to come knocking. The Terps can — and have — kept some blue-chippers at home, but it will always be a struggle to beat out the elite teams in their league (and SEC teams that calling) for the truly elite players.

Bottom line: Winning cures a lot of issues. If Maryland starts to win at a higher level, it will recruit at a higher level. Locksley knows what he’s doing on the recruiting trail, but he needs a better product to sell.

Grace, considering exclusively their current respective geographical footprint, which Power 5 conference has the lowest recruiting ceiling? And the highest? And what about if we consider the 2024 footprint? — Flavio M.

This is a fun question because people will answer it differently.

If we’re going solely based on geography, the SEC has to have the highest recruiting ceiling, and I don’t think it’s close. If you haven’t read my pal Manny Navarro’s piece about where top talent is coming from in the Class of 2024, I highly recommend it. Manny ranked the states, using a formula that takes into account the number of five-stars, blue-chippers, top-100 players and top-1,000 players in each state. Of the top five most talent-rich states — Texas, Florida, Georgia, California and Alabama — four are in the SEC footprint. The Atlanta area is as fruitful as any recruiting hotbed in the country, and that probably won’t change anytime soon.

As for which Power 5 conference has the lowest recruiting ceiling based solely on geography, dare I say the Pac-12? Yes, the Pac-12 has California, but UCLA and USC are leaving in 2024, so that will change the landscape. Plus, aside from California, Arizona and Washington are the only other states in Manny’s top 20 that currently include a Pac-12 school. The Big 12 might be the conference most in flux at the moment, but between Texas and now Florida, thanks to UCF joining the league, the league’s geographical footprint is strong.

It looks like 2024 will be a banner year for recruiting in Mississippi, but Zach Arnett has hardly made a dent with the top recruits. Is this a case of a (fairly) new staff taking a while to build momentum? Or is this just life with superpowers for neighbors? — Travis S.

Both. The state of Mississippi currently has 14 blue-chip recruits in the Class of 2024. Two are committed to Arkansas. Ole Miss, Florida and Tennessee have landed one each. The other nine are still uncommitted, meaning there’s still time for the Bulldogs to make some headway.

Mississippi State has five commitments in its 2024 class but just one blue-chipper and one in-state product. Competing against Lane Kiffin for top in-state talent is never easy, and then you also have to consider that the rest of the SEC can helicopter into Mississippi to steal talent, too. Arkansas already has two top-350 prospects from Mississippi. Alabama doesn’t have any yet, but the Crimson Tide will have a seat at the table with almost any recruit in the country given Nick Saban’s track record. It’s also possible that recruits are in wait-and-see mode with Arnett. The late Mike Leach was an offensive guru with his ever-popular Air Raid offense. Arnett is a former defensive coach who can make a statement on the recruiting trail if he can keep quarterback Will Rogers at his current level of production. This isn’t uncommon for new head coaches, so I’m not ready to sound the alarm for the Bulldogs yet. But eventually Arnett will be evaluated, in part based on how he fares with in-state prospects.

While recruiting at Clemson, did Venables also drop Taylor Swift Easter egg type of fun on social media or is this new head coach behavior? — Sara R.

Sara with the Taylor Swift question! Eek!

A little bit of background for the non-Swifites reading this mailbag: In addition to being the queen of songwriting, Taylor Alison Swift is a literal mastermind and loves to play games with her fans by dropping hints about what she’s working on at any given point. She drops these hints months — sometimes even years — in advance. Sometimes they’re subtle, and other times they’re overt. But it’s one giant mind game.

Since becoming the head coach at Oklahoma, Venables has gotten in on the fun, and I have to say I love it.

Venables’ biggest Easter egg was dropped during the early signing period, when rumors swirled that four-star safety Peyton Bowen might be on the verge of flipping to Oklahoma. Bowen had stunned the college football world earlier that day when he flipped from Notre Dame to Oregon. But he never signed the paperwork, which allowed him to follow his gut and make it official with Oklahoma the next day. Venables isn’t allowed to talk about recruits publicly until they sign with his program. Nor would it have been in his best interest to scoop his own recruit on an announcement. So instead, he sent out this tweet:

The chip has become a symbol for Oklahoma that Venables likes to tweet out when his program lands a commitment. He posted a similar tweet about a month later — the same day Walter Rouse, an offensive lineman who entered the transfer portal from Stanford, flipped his commitment from Nebraska to OU.

Venables wasn’t on social media much when he was at Clemson, so this is new behavior for him. It’s smart, though. Nothing gets a fan base excited quite like recruiting, and Venables is endearing himself to his supporters by playing these games. This is the good side of social media: It allows us to feel close to our favorite coaches or celebrities — like we’re all part of something together. And Venables is already a mad scientist on the field, so he might as well bring that same energy to Twitter. We’ll see if he keeps it up with the 2024 class, but my guess is we’ll be seeing plenty more Easter eggs if he signs another top-five class.

P.S. — I went to the Taylor Swift concert in Atlanta last month, and our queen really delivered. Her younger brother went to Notre Dame, so I’m not sure what her thoughts are on the Sooners, but something tells me she’d be proud of Venables for this.

(Photo of Brent Pry: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)