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Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections

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Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections


Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls are saying about the elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia as Americans cast their votes.

Why It Matters

The 2025 races in the three states are drawing national attention as voters prepare to select leaders in three high-profile contests.

The results could set the tone for the 2026 midterms and provide insight into shifting political dynamics on the East Coast. The outcomes will also serve as a measure of support for the Democratic and Republican parties.

What To Know

New York City Mayor’s Race

Democrat Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is favored to win the mayoral contest against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

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According to the latest Marist Poll (conducted October 24-28), Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 32 percent, with Sliwa at 16 percent. The poll sampled 792 likely voters and has a margin of error of =/-4.2 percent.

A separate AtlasIntel poll places Mamdani’s lead at 4.5 points over Cuomo (43.9 percent to Cuomo’s 39.4 percent). Some 2,404 people were surveyed between October 31 and November 2. The poll has a margin of error of =/- 2 percentage points.

In a Fox News poll, Mamdani has a 16-point lead with 47 percent on Cuomo (31 percent). These results are based on 971 likely voters questioned between October 24 and October 28—there is a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

New Jersey Governor’s Race

The New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is one of the closest in recent history.

The latest AtlasIntel poll (October 25-30; 1,639 likely voters, =/-2 percent margin) gives Sherrill a narrow edge, 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent.

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Meanwhile, a John Zogby Strategies poll, carried out among 1,205 people between October 31 and November 3, places Sherrill ahead (55 percent) of Ciattarelli (43.4 percent). There is a +/- 2.9 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co. also has Sherrill in the lead with 3 points more than Ciattarelli (52 percent to 48 percent) among 450 likely voters questioned between November 2 and 3—there is a =/- 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

Virginia Governor’s Race

Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger appears favored over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Trafalgar Group has given her a 5.6 percentage point lead over Earle-Sears (49.8 percent to 43.3 percent). Meanwhile, the latest Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters (questioned between November 2 and 3) has Spanberger at 50 percent and Earle-Sears at 40 percent. There is a +/- 3.46 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co.’s poll (November 2 and 3 among 450 likely voters) shows Spanberger with a lead of 54 percent over Winsome Earle-Sears’s 46 percent. There is a =/- 4.6 percent margin of error.

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What People Are Saying

Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538), said about the race in New Jersey: “A close race could just come down to Sherrill being part of an unpopular two-time incumbent party. That’s why it’s going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment.”

Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, outside New York City Hall on Monday: “I continue to be confident about our chances heading into Election Day tomorrow. But I will not allow myself or let this movement to become complacent.”

What Happens Next

Polling places in New York, New Jersey and Virginia are open for in-person voting, with initial results expected to emerge after polls close Tuesday evening.

High mail-in and early voting rates add potential uncertainty—final outcomes may not be clear until late Tuesday or Wednesday.



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Del. Dan Helmer on Virginia redistricting and congressional run

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Del. Dan Helmer on Virginia redistricting and congressional run


Virginia Delegate Dan Helmer led fellow Democrats to major gains in November’s election. Now he’s turning his attention to the redistricting of the Commonwealth, and a run in the newly proposed 7th district. He joins Sydney Persing on The Final 5 to discuss. 



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Man shot, killed by Virginia trooper ID’d after crash ends in deadly stabbing attack

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Man shot, killed by Virginia trooper ID’d after crash ends in deadly stabbing attack


Virginia State Police have identified the man who was shot and killed by a trooper after a crash ended in a stabbing attack on Interstate 495 Sunday afternoon.

Jared Llamado, 32, of McLean, died at the hospital on Sunday after he was shot.

RELATED | 2 dead, dog killed after stabbing spree, trooper shooting on I-495 in Fairfax County

Investigators said Llamado was confronted by the trooper who opened fire around 1:17 p.m. The trooper was responding to a report of a road rage incident and found Llamado with a knife, according to a news release.

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Four stabbing victims, all women, were also found at the scene, along with a dog that was also stabbed.

Michelle Adams, 39, died from her injuries. The dog also did not survive. The three other women were all taken to the hospital with serious injuries, according to VSP. 7News is not identifying the surviving victims.

Investigators said the stabbings stemmed from a crash in the southbound lanes of I-495.

The trooper who opened fire was not hurt and is on leave pending the outcome of the investigation into the use of force.

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Investigators said they do not believe the attack is connected to terrorism.



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Two dead after I-495 road rage incident leads to stabbing, Virginia State Police shooting – WTOP News

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Two dead after I-495 road rage incident leads to stabbing, Virginia State Police shooting – WTOP News


A road rage incident led to a shooting involving the Virginia State Police on Sunday on Interstate 495. Four individuals were also stabbed.

Two people are dead Sunday in Annandale, Virginia, after a road rage incident led to a shooting involving Virginia State Police on Interstate 495.

A release issued by the Virginia State Police said a trooper fatally shot a man after responding to a report of a road rage incident on the southbound lanes of I-495 just before 1:30 p.m. at exit 52, near the Little River Turnpike.

The man, transferred to a hospital with serious injuries, has been pronounced dead. VSP said the trooper shot in self-defense after the man confronted him with a knife.

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The trooper did not suffer any injuries during the altercation.

Officials found four stabbing victims at the scene, but only identified a 39-year-old woman and a dog. Both the woman and the dog died.

Early findings suggest the stabbings took place after a crash on the Capital Beltway. The crash remains under investigation.

The VSP’s release comes after the main lanes of the Capital Beltway Outer Loop, before Little River Turnpike, were closed to traffic for several hours, only recently opening the express lanes. Main lanes between Arlington Boulevard and the Little River Turnpike remain closed.

Stay with WTOP for the latest developments.

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