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Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections

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4 months ago

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Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls are saying about the elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia as Americans cast their votes.

Why It Matters

The 2025 races in the three states are drawing national attention as voters prepare to select leaders in three high-profile contests.

The results could set the tone for the 2026 midterms and provide insight into shifting political dynamics on the East Coast. The outcomes will also serve as a measure of support for the Democratic and Republican parties.

What To Know

New York City Mayor’s Race

Democrat Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is favored to win the mayoral contest against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

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According to the latest Marist Poll (conducted October 24-28), Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 32 percent, with Sliwa at 16 percent. The poll sampled 792 likely voters and has a margin of error of =/-4.2 percent.

A separate AtlasIntel poll places Mamdani’s lead at 4.5 points over Cuomo (43.9 percent to Cuomo’s 39.4 percent). Some 2,404 people were surveyed between October 31 and November 2. The poll has a margin of error of =/- 2 percentage points.

In a Fox News poll, Mamdani has a 16-point lead with 47 percent on Cuomo (31 percent). These results are based on 971 likely voters questioned between October 24 and October 28—there is a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

New Jersey Governor’s Race

The New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is one of the closest in recent history.

The latest AtlasIntel poll (October 25-30; 1,639 likely voters, =/-2 percent margin) gives Sherrill a narrow edge, 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent.

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Meanwhile, a John Zogby Strategies poll, carried out among 1,205 people between October 31 and November 3, places Sherrill ahead (55 percent) of Ciattarelli (43.4 percent). There is a +/- 2.9 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co. also has Sherrill in the lead with 3 points more than Ciattarelli (52 percent to 48 percent) among 450 likely voters questioned between November 2 and 3—there is a =/- 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

Virginia Governor’s Race

Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger appears favored over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Trafalgar Group has given her a 5.6 percentage point lead over Earle-Sears (49.8 percent to 43.3 percent). Meanwhile, the latest Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters (questioned between November 2 and 3) has Spanberger at 50 percent and Earle-Sears at 40 percent. There is a +/- 3.46 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co.’s poll (November 2 and 3 among 450 likely voters) shows Spanberger with a lead of 54 percent over Winsome Earle-Sears’s 46 percent. There is a =/- 4.6 percent margin of error.

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What People Are Saying

Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538), said about the race in New Jersey: “A close race could just come down to Sherrill being part of an unpopular two-time incumbent party. That’s why it’s going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment.”

Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, outside New York City Hall on Monday: “I continue to be confident about our chances heading into Election Day tomorrow. But I will not allow myself or let this movement to become complacent.”

What Happens Next

Polling places in New York, New Jersey and Virginia are open for in-person voting, with initial results expected to emerge after polls close Tuesday evening.

High mail-in and early voting rates add potential uncertainty—final outcomes may not be clear until late Tuesday or Wednesday.



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