Virginia
By the numbers: Documents reveal possible financial impact, risks of $2 billion arena project • Virginia Mercury
After a state senator blocked two of three attempts to help bring two professional sports teams to Virginia, lawmakers are negotiating how — or if — to bring the Washington Wizards and Capitals to the commonwealth before the General Assembly session adjourns Saturday.
The proposal, announced by Gov. Glenn Youngkin this December, envisions a sports arena, practice facility for the Wizards, and a performing arts venue, paired with new retail, residential, restaurants, hotels and conference facilities near Amazon HQ2 and the Virginia Tech Innovation Campus along the Potomac River in Alexandria.
Two documents have been key for supporters in projecting positive aspects of the project, namely generating a fiscal impact of $12 billion and creating roughly 30,000 jobs.
Virginia announces plan to bring two pro sports teams to Alexandria
Those documents appear to show that the potential benefits are contingent on the facility hosting hundreds of events annually, and that the success of the 9 million square foot entertainment district hinges on costs and interest rates remaining stable, though the plan includes some protections against creeping costs.
While the arena project is a priority for Youngkin and Ted Leonsis, CEO of Monumental Sports and Entertainment, which owns the Wizards and Capitals franchises, it has garnered strong opposition from at least one high-profile Senate Democrat, Finance and Appropriations Committee Chair Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, as well as Alexandria resident groups, labor unions and others who depict its projections as overly optimistic. Those groups have pointed out that if arena revenues don’t live up to estimates, Virginia taxpayers could be on the hook for as much as $1.35 billion, according to one calculation reported by The Washington Post.
Lucas has successfully killed standalone bills establishing an authority that would have the power to issue $2 billion in bonds for the project. But language creating the authority made it into the House budget, with a clause requiring General Assembly approval of the arena plan next year; it is now being considered privately by a select group of 12 legislators negotiating the state’s two-year budget. Youngkin, meanwhile, continues to have “productive conversations” with lawmakers, according to spokesman Christian Martinez, in hopes of convincing them to make the project a reality.
Whether the project comes to fruition may also depend on other negotiations: Lucas and Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, have previously indicated support may require Youngkin to negotiate with Democrats on other caucus priorities such as raising the minimum wage and allowing cannabis sales.
The two documents
Arguments that the arena will prove a financial net-positive for Virginia have rested on the conclusions of two documents: a project brief by investment bank J.P. Morgan and an economic and fiscal impact report prepared for the Alexandria Economic Development Partnership. The J.P. Morgan brief has never been made widely available to the public, while the Alexandria report was released in redacted form in mid-February.
“We released the full report … in the interest of transparency and to provide our community with greater detail on how this proposal could benefit Alexandria,” said partnership President and CEO Stephanie Landrum in a statement to the Mercury.
The J.P. Morgan brief, which was obtained by the Mercury, was a key document reviewed by the state’s Major Economic Incentives Project Approval Commission, a group of members of the General Assembly and the governor’s administration tasked with reviewing financing for individual incentive packages extended by the state to companies. The commission endorsed the arena plan unanimously this December, ahead of Youngkin’s announcement.
The brief includes graphical renderings of the proposed project and details of its financing plans, project phases, proposed number of jobs to be created and other potential benefits to the city of Alexandria and Virginia.
Some Senate Democrats have criticized the reliance of the MEI Commission on the report as questionable, saying J.P. Morgan has a conflict of interest because even as it has analyzed the arena deal for the state, its asset management arm is advising a member of the partnership that owns the land where the arena would be sited.
Surovell said he is unaware of any code of business ethics or state law that would explicitly prohibit such an arrangement but said, “I think it’s more of an appearance issue.”
Youngkin’s office has insisted that the analysis conducted by J.P. Morgan for the MEI Commission was done by a completely separate part of the bank “and adhered to the intensive compliance regulations required,” Martinez said. He added that J.P. Morgan was selected to analyze the project for the MEI Commission through a bidding and procurement process.
The J.P. Morgan brief also relies in part on the conclusions of a separate report analyzing the economic and fiscal impacts of the proposed project that was produced by HR&A Advisors, a development consulting firm hired by the Alexandria Economic Development Partnership.
In its analysis, HR&A looked at two potential development scenarios: one in which the arena and its associated entertainment district are developed and a baseline scenario in which they are not and development of residential, retail and office space on the site occur organically.
The arena scenario is based on a three-phase development schedule — the first to be completed by 2029, the second by 2031 and the third by 2036.
Overall, it concludes that developing the arena and its associated entertainment district would produce “roughly 2.5 times the economic output of what would otherwise be built based on current development plans.”
Both the HR&A analysis and the J.P. Morgan brief indicated the project could be supported through multiple revenue sources including a 10% ticket tax on arena and performance venue events, underground parking and campus naming rights.
220 events or more
The HR&A analysis assumes 221 events will be held at the arena and 115 events would be held at associated performing arts venues. The J.P. Morgan brief also cites the 221 annual event figure, projecting events at other facilities could drive that number much higher.
J.P. Morgan notes revenues could suffer if the arena doesn’t host at least that many events. The bank also indicated there could be cost overruns, interest rate changes and unforeseen challenges.
“Underperformance could be caused by the arena not supporting 221 events a year, another pandemic, or various other factors outside the control of the commonwealth,” the brief states.
However, J.P. Morgan said the project’s risks are reduced by measures such as a financing structure that sets aside funds in a reserve to cover debt service.
The management group said revenues could decline by 50% and debt service would still be paid without the commonwealth or city needing to contribute any funds.
Underperformance could be caused by the arena not supporting 221 events a year, another pandemic, or various other factors outside the control of the commonwealth.
Michael O’Grady, a research economist and doctoral candidate at Virginia Commonwealth University, said he believes the number of projected arena events is “highly inflated,” and there’s a high likelihood that many won’t occur. Alexandria, O’Grady said, would still have to compete with other events in Washington, D.C. at Capital One Arena, which currently hosts the two teams and other sports and entertainment events.
He said Capital One Arena is able to pull in visitors from three Metrorail lines that converge at the adjacent Gallery Place-Chinatown Metro station, compared to only two that go through the Potomac Yard Metro station.
“I don’t see a lot of non-Monumental entertainment moving to Alexandria, just because location-wise, it’s a less desirable venue,” O’Grady said.
Risks: cost overruns and interest rates
While the HR&A Advisors analysis did not not identify any fiscal concerns, the J.P. Morgan brief cites cost overruns as one of the project’s risks.
“While significant work has been put into scoping out the project, it may still end up costing more than currently estimated,” the brief said. “However, the project is expected to be designed to the sources available, with the contractor responsible for overruns.”
Overrun risk, it noted, would be combated by “a fixed-price construction contract to protect against delay and cost overruns.”
Still, the question has troubled some lawmakers, with Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, who represents the area where the project would be built, saying, “It’s already very costly, and we can’t afford cost overruns on top of that as well.”
J.P. Morgan also noted increases in interest rates could drive up project costs, estimating an interest rate change of 0.5 percentage points could increase or decrease project costs by around $100 million.
In the event that revenues aren’t sufficient to cover the costs of paying back the project debt, the brief states Virginia and Alexandria would share responsibility for paying debt service on subordinate bonds, or loans that get paid back after others are repaid.
The brief says Virginia and Alexandria are each backstopping $560 million in debt, although it totals the various bonds Virginia is backstopping at $577 million.
According to the brief, Public Resources Advisory Group, a financial adviser to Virginia that has reviewed the structure of the project, does not expect that the backstop will impair the commonwealth’s AAA credit rating.
30,000 or more jobs
Both the HR&A Advisors and J.P. Morgan documents said the project will generate at least 30,000 jobs by 2036.
A supplemental one-page document to HR&A’s report provided to the Mercury said the entertainment district could create 29,555 permanent jobs with an average wage of $75,000, and 17,645 construction jobs. A separate document produced by MonumentalALX, which is responsible for promotion of the project, indicated the project would generate 29,925 permanent jobs.
Monumental Sports would have an estimated 658 full-time office staff, and the arena would employ 242 people at an average salary of nearly $26,000 each, according to the two documents. O’Grady said that is “not a livable wage for anyone in Northern Virginia or in the D.C. area.”
The J.P. Morgan brief estimates the project would produce 36,960 permanent jobs and 17,645 construction jobs. Most of its permanent jobs — 20,940 — would not be created until the project’s final phase is completed in 2036. A total of 11,310 permanent jobs would be at the arena.
What all of those jobs could be would vary. Phase 1 of the project would add residential buildings, office space for Virginia Tech and Monumental Sports and Entertainment’s headquarters, a concert venue, parking, hotels and a conference center. Phases 2 and 3 would add more residential buildings, retail and office space.
O’Grady questioned the economic impact of more office spaces given that since the pandemic, more of the workforce is remote.
“The amount of actual office or economic activity that’s going to happen in this area is greatly inflated, compared to what it probably will be,” O’Grady said.
$12 billion economic impact
The J.P. Morgan brief projects the arena and entertainment district will have $12 billion in economic impact for both the city and state. Presentations by MonumentalALX based on the HR&A analysis cite the same figure.
Study finds arena plan would need $135 to $215 million in transportation investments
O’Grady questioned how soon Virginia would see a return on the project’s costs, estimating it would take 24 years for the bond debts to be paid off.
It’s tough to tell the true price of the project based on HR&A’s cost analysis document, O’Grady said, since parts of it are redacted and some of the projections were collected from developers, which have “private incentives to have this project go forward.”
“Because the break-even point is so far away, there is no real accountability mechanism here,” O’Grady said. “If this deal doesn’t generate what they promised, we can’t go back and hold leadership accountable. Gov. Youngkin will be long gone from office, along with most people in the state legislature and Alexandria government.”
$200 million in transportation costs
While HR&A did not include any information about transportation, the J.P. Morgan report said the project would require an additional $200 million for offsite transportation needs including widening bridges and roadways, creating pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure and relieving traffic congestion.
A later study, commissioned by the Youngkin administration, Alexandria and Monumental and produced by engineering firm Kimley-Horn, found $135 to $215 million in transportation investments would be needed. That would be in addition to an extra $2.5 to $7.5 million annually for operational improvements such as increased Metro service.
According to the J.P. Morgan brief, the $2 billion in bonds needed for the project would include $110 million of investments in the development of onsite transportation.
Deputy Editor Samantha Willis contributed to this story.
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Virginia has a budget deal.
It’s late in the sense that the expectation had been the General Assembly would work this out before it adjourned back in March. However, it comes 12 days before the state starts a new budget year, so lawmakers will apparently not be taking things to the brink. The legislature reconvenes Monday to take up the spending plan that House and Senate negotiators released Friday night.
The exact details (which will be voluminous) haven’t been posted on the General Assembly’s website yet. We do, however, have a 68-page summary that outlines what’s in the deal. The headliner: a compromise on data center taxation that keeps the controversial tax incentives in place but creates a new tax on the electricity they use.
The other highlights — as seen from the standpoint of Southwest and Southside — include funding to start construction of an inland port in Washington County and expand the Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine, as well as language authorizing a formal partnership between George Mason University and Averett University. One surprise: $100,000 to fund a statue in Roanoke of the late judge and lawmaker Onzlee Ware.
Gov. Abigail Spanberger and legislative leaders had earlier reached an agreement on how to legalize retail sales of cannabis. That’s now included in the budget deal, with sales starting July 1, 2027. See the earlier story by Cardinal’s Richmond-based reporter Elizabeth Beyer for details.
Here’s an overview of what we know — with the caveat that more details will be forthcoming when the actual budget language is available.
1. Data center taxation compromise
The main reason that the budget took so long is that Senate Finance Chair Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, spent weeks insisting that the state should eliminate its tax breaks for data centers eight years early. That brought pushback from both the governor and House leaders, who worried that would send a signal to other business sectors that the state can’t be trusted.
This deal keeps the tax breaks for data centers intact (they’re set to expire in 2035). Instead, it creates a tax on the electricity that data centers consume. When that was floated earlier in the week, business groups pushed back against it. The version in the budget deal calls for the revenue collected through that tax to be capped at $600 million a year — and says that any monies collected over that be refunded on a pro-rated basis at the end of the fiscal year. It was unclear what the reaction to this will be, but collecting $600 million a year seems a significant climb-down compared to those who wanted to do away with the tax exemption that forgoes $1.9 billion per year in exchange for $9.1 billion in gross domestic product from data centers.
The summary also says there will be at least four items in the budget that will set in motion new regulations. Among them are references to “data center noise regulation language” and “data center cooling water scarcity regulations.”
2. Inland port in Washington County
An “inland port” does not involve water or ships. Instead, it’s the industry term for a freight hub that collects cargo headed to or from a water port. Virginia already has an inland port near Front Royal that facilitates rail shipments to and from Hampton Roads; it’s also spurred thousands of warehouse and trucking jobs in the northern Shenandoah Valley.
Legislators in Southwest Virginia — led by state Sen. Todd Pillion, R-Washington County — have been pushing for several years to create a similar inland port in Southwest Virginia, specifically at the Oak Park Center for Business and Industry in Washington County.
This deal includes $20 million to get construction started. (Pillion is one of the budget negotiators so was in a position to make sure this money was included in the budget.)
3. Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine and other healthcare workforce funding
The school in Roanoke is slated to get $13 million for expansion as part of a larger $74.4 million plan to expand the healthcare workforce.
Nursing programs at James Madison University, Radford University and the University of Mary Washington will get a total of $7.6 million.
The budget deal also includes $6 million for the Virginia Tech Patient Research Center and $500,000 for workforce development programs in the Roanoke Valley and Alleghany Highlands in healthcare and biomedical sciences fields.
4. Interstate 81
The budget directs the secretary of transportation to “evaluate options to Accelerate I-81 Projects; including tolling options as long as there are 2 toll-free lanes in each direction.” That seems to foreshadow a third lane that might have tolls. Del. Terry Austin, R-Botetourt County and a budget negotiator, said Secretary of Transportation Nick Donahue wanted that provision.
5. Virginia Coalfields Expressway
The slow-moving road project that’s slated to run through Buchanan County and Dickenson County gets $7 million for improvements to U.S. 460 in Buchanan County.
6. New College Institute
The budget changes the name of the Martinsville-based center from the New College Institute to the West Piedmont Higher Education Center and includes funding in the second year of the two-year budget. When then-Gov. Glenn Youngkin introduced his budget back in December, he had zeroed out that second-year funding.
7. George Mason University/Averett University
Del. David Reid, D-Loudoun County, has pushed for a formal partnership between the public school in Northern Virginia and the private school in Danville as a way to expand GMU’s reach. The budget deal includes the language to make that happen. It’s unclear what that will mean in practice, but the budget language authorizes George Mason to work with Averett on both undergraduate and graduate programs as well as other workforce-related issues. There’s no money attached, but the language lists multiple groups that would be allowed to help fund this work, including the GO Virginia economic development program, the Tobacco Commission, the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, the Danville Regional Foundation and other nonprofits.
“I’m pleased GMU will now have official authorization to move forward in what is probably the most dynamic economic area of the Commonwealth,” Reid said in a text message.
8. Onzlee Ware statue in Roanoke
An unexpected item was $100,000 for a “Roanoke commemoration.” Legislators said this was for a statue to the late Onzlee Ware, the first Black state legislator west of the Blue Ridge and later a judge.
House Appropriations Chair Luke Torian, D-Prince William County, was cited as the proponent of this measure. “Onzlee was a bit of a mentor to Torian,” said Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, a member of the House Appropriations Committee.
9. Local referendums on sales tax increases for schools
At present, nine localities are authorized to hold referendums to increase the local sales tax, with the proceeds going to schools. There’s been a push to expand that power statewide. In this year’s General Assembly session, bills related to these local referendums were set aside with the expectation that they’d simply be written into the budget. Now they are, with the sales tax increase capped at 1%.
10. State funding formula
A panel will be appointed to study whether and how to change the state’s school funding formula; $1.3 million is set aside for this.
11. New or renovated college buildings
There’s money (unclear how much) to renovate Derring Hall at Virginia Tech and Darden Hall at the University of Virginia’s College at Wise.
12. Institute for Advanced Learning and Research
The Center for Advanced Manufacturing at the Danville institute is slated to get money for expansion, although it was unclear how much.
13. Housing
The lack of housing — and the high cost of what is available — has been the subject of legislative attention. Among the initiatives: This budget deal authorizes a state loan for Newport News to develop housing around the shipyard as well as other housing construction initiatives in Fairfax County and Prince William County.
14. Richmond Coliseum
The budget deal includes $15 million to help Richmond demolish the Richmond Coliseum, which has been deemed to be obsolete.
15. Tourism
Included in tourism funding is $100,000 for the annual Blue Highway Fest in Wise County. We’ve previously written about that award-winning music festival. Another tourism-related funding item is $305,000 for Breaks Interstate Park, the Virginia side of which is in Dickenson County.
You can read the full summary below. We’ll take a deeper look at the budget deal once we can see the actual language.
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Powerball, Mega Millions jackpots: What to know in case you win
Here’s what to know in case you win the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot.
Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
The Virginia Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.
Here’s a look at June 19, 2026, results for each game:
Mega Millions
Mega Millions drawings take place every week on Tuesday and Friday at 11 p.m.
13-16-21-26-50, Mega Ball: 12
Check Mega Millions payouts and previous drawings here.
Pick 3
DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.
Night: 1-0-5, FB: 2
Day: 0-3-3, FB: 3
Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.
Pick 4
DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.
Night: 6-7-5-6, FB: 0
Day: 7-9-2-7, FB: 9
Check Pick 4 payouts and previous drawings here.
Pick 5
DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.
Night: 2-6-7-3-1, FB: 8
Day: 9-5-2-5-7, FB: 6
Check Pick 5 payouts and previous drawings here.
Cash Pop
Drawing times: Coffee Break 9 a.m.; Lunch Break 12 p.m.; Rush Hour 5 p.m.; Prime Time 9 p.m.; After Hours 11:59 p.m.
Coffee Break: 05
After Hours: 08
Prime Time: 05
Rush Hour: 02
Lunch Break: 04
Check Cash Pop payouts and previous drawings here.
Cash 5
Drawing every day at 11 p.m.
34-36-42-44-45
Check Cash 5 payouts and previous drawings here.
Millionaire for Life
Drawing everyday at 11:15 p.m.
02-20-28-51-54, Bonus: 02
Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Center for Community Journalism (CCJ) editor. You can send feedback using this form.
Most of the names that will fill Virginia Tech football’s 2026 stat sheet were wearing other uniforms last fall. James Franklin rebuilt this roster through the portal in a matter of weeks, which means projecting statistical leaders is less about what happened in Blacksburg and more about what these players did somewhere else. Here is a breakdown on who should lead the Hokies in each major statistical category.
Passing yards and passing touchdowns: Ethan Grunkemeyer
No other quarterback on the roster has taken a college snap, so the depth chart writes itself at the top. What makes Grunkemeyer more than a default pick is the 1,339 yards he threw for across seven Penn State starts, plus the head start he has on the offense after following coordinator Ty Howle to Blacksburg. He spent last year learning this scheme while everyone else is starting from zero. As long as he stays healthy, Grunkemeyer is the easy pick for these categories.
Rushing yards and rushing touchdowns: Marcellous Hawkins
Few backs produced in tougher conditions in 2025. Hawkins gained 749 yards on 6.3 per carry, drew an 84.6 Pro Football Focus grade, highest on the roster, and racked up 562 yards after contact, doing it against fronts that loaded the box because Virginia Tech gave them no reason not to. A passing game with some teeth should only loosen things up, and Jeffrey Overton Jr. figures to handle a meaningful share of carries without threatening the bulk of the workload.
The touchdown lead comes with a wrinkle worth pausing on. Hawkins reached the end zone just once on the ground all season, while quarterback Kyron Drones piled up nine rushing scores. Drones is gone, off to the NFL with the Green Bay Packers, which leaves that production up for grabs and the lead back in line to claim it. Overton, who broke a 38-yard touchdown run against Miami in November, is the back most likely to chip into the total.
Receiving yards: Que’Sean Brown
The most accomplished pass catcher in the room arrived from Durham. Brown posted 846 yards at Duke last season and 1,291 across his past two years, headlined by a 178-yard, two-touchdown showing in the Sun Bowl. Projected as the primary slot, he occupies the spot where targets concentrate in a timing-based passing game. Greene offers continuity and a higher floor, but Brown’s track record points to the bigger ceiling.
Receiving touchdowns: Luke Reynolds
Zero touchdowns at Penn State last year. That’s the case against Reynolds. The case for him is everything else: a five-star pedigree, a 6-foot-4, 250-pound frame built for red-zone mismatches, and a Howle offense with a track record of feeding the tight end near the goal line. The spring game gave a glimpse of what Virginia Tech’s offense will look like, with ght ends outgaining receivers 205 yards to 157 on Virginia Tech’s 428 total receiving yards. Reynolds led every target on the field, catching all five passes thrown his way for a game-high 69 yards.
Tackles and tackles for loss: Kaleb Spencer
With Caleb Woodson off to Alabama and Jaden Keller out of eligibility, the top of the linebacker room emptied out, and Spencer is what’s left standing. The Miami transfer quietly led the 2025 team in tackles with 67 while starting five games and playing all 12, and he’s logged more than 500 snaps in Blacksburg. He also led the team in tackles for loss, at 9.0, and as the every-down mike, he’s built to live in the backfield again. Sophomore Noah Chambers, who posted 44 tackles as a true freshman, is the closest thing to a challenger, while Kemari Copeland and any of the new edge rushers who pop could chip into the loss column. For now, the proven leader keeps both.
Sacks: Kemari Copeland
Copeland led the Hokies in sacks last season, and the tape backs up the kind of explosive athlete he is. He owns Virginia Tech’s all-time squat record, putting up 605 pounds for 10 reps, a number that turned heads well outside the football program when he set it. That kind of lower-body power shows up on Saturdays, where he’s capable of collapsing a pocket from the interior, not just the edge.
Interceptions: Jaquez White
No Hokie pulled away in the takeaway department last season, so the safer bet goes to the player who’s done it before. White intercepted three passes and broke up 11 more at Troy, production that earned him second-team All-Sun Belt honors. He’s joining a secondary that struggled to create turnovers a year ago, and a corner with his track record of finding the ball is exactly what that group needed. Isaiah Brown-Murray, the returning CB1 with a pick and five breakups of his own, is the closest thing to a rival for the lead.
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