2024 Virginia Football Preview: A Make-or-Break Year for Tony Elliott

Simply put, winning hasn’t come easily in Scott Stadium as of late. The ‘Hoos showed flashes in the second year of Coach Tony Elliott’s tenure; however, late-game gaffes and several blowouts led to a 3-9 season and a 2-6 finish in the ACC. Nonetheless, one can dream of greener pastures in the upcoming campaign for the Cavaliers. 

Let’s preview some of the personnel and make some predictions as to how the 2024 Virginia football season will shake out.

Notable Offensive Returners: Graduate Student C Brian Stevens, Junior OT McKale Boley, Junior OT Blake Steen, Senior OG Noah Josey, Senior OG Ty Furnish, Senior QB Tony Muskett, Sophomore QB Anthony Colandrea, Fifth-Year RB Kobe Pace, Senior WR Malachi Fields, Sophomore WR Suderian Harrison, Junior WR JR Wilson, Graduate Student TE Sackett Wood Jr.

Notable Defensive Returners: Graduate Student DE Chico Bennett Jr., Sixth-Year DE Kam Butler, Sixth-Year DE Ben Smiley III, Graduate Student DT Jahmeer Carter, Senior DT Michael Diatta, Sophomore DT Jason Hammond, Senior LB James Jackson, Sophomore LB Kam Robinson, Graduate Student DB Malcolm Greene, Sophomore CB Dre Walker, Senior S Jonas Sanker, Sixth-Year S Antonio Clary

Notable Offensive Transfers: Graduate Student OL Drake Metcalf (UCF), Graduate Student WR Chris Tyree (Notre Dame), Junior WR Andre Greene Jr. (North Carolina), Junior WR Trell Harris (Kent State), Graduate Student TE Tyler Neville (Harvard)

Notable Defensive Transfers: Fifth-Year LB Dorian Jones (Louisville), Graduate Student DB Kendren Smith (Penn), Graduate Student CB Kempton Shine (Eastern Michigan), Graduate Student S Corey Thomas Jr. (Akron), Junior CB Jam Jackson (Robert Morris)

Offensive MVP: Brian Stevens, Center

The anchor of the Virginia offensive line, graduate student Brian Stevens will hopefully shore up a unit that conceded 3.58 sacks per game in 2023 — good for 123rd out of 130 Division 1-FBS teams. Stevens, however, graded as the top ACC run-blocking center in 2023 and held the fourth-highest grade among all FBS centers (77.3) by Pro Football Focus. The former Dayton transfer spent most of the year recovering from a double-hip surgery last January, yet he should be ready to go for Week 1 against Richmond. A healthy Stevens — bolstered by a more experienced offensive line — will be vital for the success of both quarterbacks and expected bell cow Kobe Pace.

Defensive MVP: Jonas Sanker, Safety

Sanker, like Stevens, is the seasoned leader of his unit and a returning First-Team All-ACC selection, Virginia’s only defensive representative outside of defensive tackle Aaron Faumui (Honorable Mention). The Charlottesville native tallied a career-high 107 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, and 11 pass breakups in a season which witnessed few defensive bright spots outside of freshman linebacker Kam Robinson. While his numbers may dip with sixth-year safety Antonio Clary back in the fold, Sanker will provide a backbone to a defense sorely hoping for an improved year; after all, the Cavaliers finished 116th nationally in scoring defense last season with 33.75 points per game allowed.

Impact Transfer: Chris Tyree, Wide Receiver/Return Specialist

Landing Notre Dame’s Swiss Army Knife in the offseason was a massive get for the ‘Hoos. The Chester, Va. native appeared as a running back, wide receiver, kick returner and punt returner for the Irish in his four-year career in South Bend, totaling 3,284 all-purpose yards. While Tyree will immediately provide a spark for the special teams unit, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to fill a Malik Washington-esque slot receiver role in an offense that isn’t experiencing much turnover elsewhere. The 5’10’’ pass-catcher caught a career-high 26 balls in 2023 as a wide receiver and may be a safety valve for both quarterbacks in the Virginia offense. He may play some snaps in the backfield, as well.

Ceiling: 7-5

Call this a lofty ceiling after a 3-9 season, but it’s not far-fetched to foresee a major bounce-back from the Cavaliers with both quarterbacks intact, a defense returning several key starters, and a transfer class poised to contribute immediately. The schedule features several high-caliber road games against potential Top-25 teams — at Clemson, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech — yet the home slate is manageable. Notable, moreover, is Virginia’s slim margin of defeat last season, as the Cavaliers were tied or leading in the fourth quarter against Boston College, NC State, Miami, and Louisville. The Cavaliers must avoid late-game lapses (a late 73-yard TD conceded against the Cardinals comes to mind) so as to flip the script this season. Stealing only two of those games away would have resulted in a 5-7 year for the ‘Hoos.

Floor: 2-10

Assuming the same woes — a lackluster pass rush, costly turnovers, and late-game management — plague Virginia, we can expect another rough season in Charlottesville. Outside of the three uber-difficult road games, the Cavaliers will travel to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest, a team they haven’t beaten since 2007. Exercising demons may be a theme for this year’s team. Some under-the-radar games will come against the Sun Belt’s Coastal Carolina and the FCS’ Richmond, the latter of whom shocked Virginia in the ‘Hoos’ 2016 home opener, 37-20. I don’t believe that Coach Tony Elliott will go quietly in a make-or-break season, but he absolutely cannot afford a loss in either of these two contests. 

Elliott’s Dilemma:  

Coach Tony Elliott’s seat is scalding. So, what kind of a performance from his team will merit a longer leash, and which will result in an immediate firing? With only six total wins in his first two seasons, Virginia’s head coach must win at least five games this year to keep his job and reassure the fanbase, administrators, and boosters that this program can reach bowl eligibility status in the near future. Five is iffy, though, and true safety might mean six games won. Elliott‘s situation is unique — considering the tragedy which befell the program in 2022 — and it’s important to consider that he now has some help from the University in the form of a revamped, state-of-the-art facility. I do believe, however, that less than five wins should be reason for Athletic Director Carla Williams to move on from Elliott.

Richmond: Win
@ Wake Forest: Loss
Maryland: Loss
@ Coastal Carolina: Win
Boston College: Win
Louisville: Win
@ Clemson: Loss
North Carolina: Win
@ Pitt: Win
@ Notre Dame: Loss
SMU: Loss
@ Virginia Tech: Loss

The schedule gauntlet ramps up significantly after a home game against Louisville, so it’s imperative that Virginia takes care of business in the early stages (v. Richmond, @ Coastal, v. Boston College) and try to steal one against Louisville and/or North Carolina. While this program hasn’t since enjoyed a season remotely as successful as the 2019 campaign, the veteran leadership within this group may bring Virginia faithful a bowl appearance and a glimmer of hope. The stakes are higher than ever.

Oh, if the Adventures of CavMan makes a return (on the new JumboTron at Scott Stadium), this team might not lose a home game in 2024. 

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