Can a struggling Texas Rangers team still make the playoffs? Here’s what history says

The Texas Rangers spent Thursday at the White House in Washington, D.C., where much of the discussion in and around the grounds on a daily basis is centered upon this November. The reigning World Series champions won’t think that far ahead on their visit.

But how about playoff baseball in October?

“This team has it in them,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said on Wednesday night. “I’m going to keep believing.”

He’ll need to believe that history is indeed made to be broken.

Since MLB installed the wild card in 1995, no team has reached the postseason with a worse record than these Rangers (54-61) through the first 115 games of any season, according to Stathead. Only five teams with an under-.500 record through that mark — the 1995 New York Yankees, 2004 Houston Astros, 2009 Minnesota Twins, 2016 New York Mets and 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks — have.

The difference between those teams and the Rangers (who trail the first-place Houston Astros by five-and-a-half games) is the gap that existed between them and their division’s leaders through 115 games. Those Yankees were 15 games out of first place in the AL East through 115 games, the Astros were 19.5 games back in the NL Central, the Mets were 10.5 games back in the NL East and last year’s Diamondbacks were 6.5 games back in an NL West that included a 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers team.

Each of those four qualified for postseason play via a wild card berth. The Diamondbacks were beneficiaries of baseball’s first season with three wild card teams in each league and turned that rule change into a date with the Rangers in last fall’s World Series. Texas, which trails the Kansas City Royals by 8.5 games for the third-and-final AL wild card spot, cannot rely on that kind of safety net.

It’s division title or bust. Those 2009 Twins — whose 87-76 final record was good enough to win the AL Central, but wouldn’t have been enough to clinch a wild card berth — can relate. The Twins are the only team that was below .500 through 115 games since 1995 that clinched a playoff spot by way of a division title. They, like the Rangers, faced a manageable deficit of five games in that season’s weakest division with 47 games left to play.

So what went right for them?

• They handled their own business and played like the best team in baseball. Minnesota went 31-16 (and 14-9 against AL Central opponents) in their final 47 games of the season to finish a game up on the Detroit Tigers to win their division. Only the Yankees — who also went 31-16 in that span — had as good of a finish to their season as the Twins did. Minnesota still needed to win a Game 163 tiebreaker (which no longer exists under baseball’s current format) to clinch the division title. As it pertains to Texas: The Rangers have the seventh-easiest schedule remaining in baseball and seven games left to play against the Seattle Mariners, the second-place AL West team.
• Their competition stumbled. The Tigers — who led the AL Central by 2.5 games with 47 games remaining — finished with just a 24-23 record and lost Game 163 to the Twins. The Chicago White Sox, who were in second place with 115 games left, went just 21-26 to close the year. As it pertains to Texas: Both Houston (14th-hardest) and Seattle (21st-hardest) have a more difficult remaining schedule than the Rangers.
• Their best bats got hot. Catcher Joe Mauer, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame last month alongside Adrián Beltré, slashed .343/.436/.514 over the last 47 games of that season and was later named AL MVP. He was one of five qualified Twins batters — including Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Denard Span and Jason Kubel — to record an on base plus slugging percentage of .838 or higher from games 116-162. As it pertains to Texas: The Rangers have one player (Corey Seager, whose OPS is .851) that’s currently performing at that level offensively.
• Their pitching improved enough to complement the offense. The Twins had a 4.65 ERA — the 23rd-worst in baseball — through 115 games, but were slightly-above league average (4.13 ERA) in the 47 games that followed. In-season additions of Carl Pavano and Jon Rauch certainly helped. As it pertains to Texas: The Rangers’ 5.56 ERA since Aug. 1 is the fifth-worst in baseball and the lowest in the AL West by a considerable amount.

Here’s the snag: Minnesota (unlike what Texas would need to accomplish) did not have to miraculously turn around its offense in their season-ending run. The Twins ranked eighth in runs scored and seventh in OPS leaguewide through their first 115 games despite the under-par record. They scored the sixth-most runs in baseball over the course of their final 47 and improved their OPS from .770 to .780.

Yes, those Twins became a better team. They also had a better existing foundation to build off of than these Rangers do. Texas still ranks below league average in nearly every significant offensive category and external reinforcements are all but nonexistent. Their starting pitching has only worsened since August began.

A playoff berth is still mathematically possible. History suggests otherwise.

It’ll take a good deal of belief.

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