Wetter than normal Tennessee winter? What Farmers’ Almanac and weather forecasters predict

Instead of a winter wonderland, Tennessee — along with the rest of the United States — is expected to experience a wet whirlwind, according to the 208th edition of the Farmers’ Almanac. The 2024-2025 winter weather outlook calls for a winter season full of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow for most regions.

The outlook predicts a cold, wet winter for most locations. Average or above normal temperatures are forecast for New England, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the Atlantic Coast regions.

“It definitely looks more wet than white in many areas,” Farmers’ Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY. “Obviously, depending on where you live, there might be more white than wet, but we’re focusing in on the wet winter ahead.”

Here’s what lies ahead regarding winter weather.

What does the Farmers’ Almanac say about the 2024-2025 winter outlook in Tennessee?

As previously reported by USA TODAY, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts that Southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia) are expected to be “mild and wet” overall.

“But that doesn’t mean they will escape Old Man Winter,” added Duncan.

Tennessee will experience a hotter and wetter than average winter season, according to the National Weather Service

According to the Climate Prediction Center, Tennessee will experience above average temperatures (33-40%) with parts of the Middle Tennessee region experiencing above average precipitation (33-40%) during December, January and February.

“There is still a 60-67% chance that either near normal or below normal temperatures are experienced, but our best prediction is that we’ll exceed the monthly temperature averages,” said National Weather Service Meteorologist, Ryan Husted.

In December, Nashville experiences average highs of 52, average lows of 33 and an average precipitation of 4.43 inches. In January, the area normally sees highs of 49, lows of 30 and an average precipitation of 4 inches. Then in February, things gradually begin to heat up with average high of 54, lows of 33 and an average precipitation of 4.47 inches.

Most of the Southeastern United States is typically favored for above normal temperatures, due to La Niña, the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures, added Husted.

How will La Niña impact weather weather in Tennessee?

Low pressure systems generally move north of the area during La Niña conditions, which often keeps Tennessee in the area of warmer temperatures, providing fuel for thunderstorms, said Husted.

The probabilities for the Volunteer State to experience a major winter event like snow or ice are lower, however extreme winter events can never be ruled out. For example, the winters of 2022-2023 (a La Niña winter) and 2023-2024 both experienced above normal temperatures yet they still came with a “substantial” cold snap, said Husted.

“We all remember these single winter events but often forget how warm the rest of the winter is,” Husted told the Tennessean in an email. “… We speak in general terms for the season and are unable to predict single weather events and their exact timing until they have formed and are approaching us, usually a few days away.”

Will Nashville receive snow this winter?

It is currently impossible to predict how much snow Nashville will receive this season, said Husted. Based on previous snowfall events, Music City favors normal (4.7 inches) and below normal snowfall during La Niña winters.

The winters of 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 were all La Niña winters, and they received 5.2 inches of snow (near normal), 9.5 inches of snow (above normal) and 1.2 inches of snow (below normal), respectively.

How much snow did the Nashville area receive last winter?

In January, Nashville experienced record breaking snowfall, receiving its yearly average of snow in less than 24 hours. On Tuesday, Jan. 16, the weather service confirmed Nashville’s official snowfall accumulation was 7.6 inches, with the majority of it (6.3 inches) falling on Monday alone.

Surrounding areas were covered under an even thicker blanket of snow. Kingston Springs, Gallatin and Hendersonville received eight inches while Belle Meade, Berry HIll and Oak Hill received nine inches.

Record snowfall in Nashville? Music City surpasses yearly average in less than 24 hours

Nashville’s top five snowstorms:

1. March 16-18, 1892: 17 inches
2. Feb. 2-3, 1886: 16 inches
3. Feb. 20-21, 1929: 15 inches
4. Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 1951: 12 inches
5. Feb. 6-9, 1979: 11 inches

USA TODAY contributed to this report.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana