Tennessee vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 11

Tennessee lost its first game of the season at Florida in blowout fashion, but will turn around to face Texas, who is in the midst of a grueling part of its first SEC schedule. 

There are few easy games in the SEC, and Texas is learning that quickly, losing its first two games of league play to Texas A&M and Auburn. Now, the team faces the elite defense of Tennessee, who is looking to bounce back off a loss on the road? 

Can the Vols take care of business in Austin, or will a battle tested Texas team keep up and pull an upset? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 132.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee

Chaz Lanier: The North Florida transfer continues to provide sound floor spacing for the Vols, shooting 44% from beyond the arc as the team’s primary shot taker. However, with a high 3-point rate comes some stinkers, like the one against Florida in which he made only one of his nine 3-point attempts. The Texas defense is stout at limiting three-point attempts as Lanier will need to put together a complete performance on the road. 

Texas

Arthuer Kaluma: The Kansas State transfer had his best game of the season in a tight loss to Auburn, scoring 34 points on 12-for-16 shooting from the field, grabbing eight rebounds in the process. The forward has been shooting lights out from the perimeter this season – 52% – as he looks to guide Texas to a signature win.

I like Texas to hang around in this one with the team’s ability to break down the Tennessee offense in isolation situations and also have several capable three-point shooters on the floor. 

The Vols compact defense forces teams to shoot from the perimeter at a high rate, the Vols are 341st in opponent 3-point rate as opponents hoist nearly 47% of shots from beyond the arc. While Texas likes to get its offense on the interior with players like Kaluma, Tre Johnson and Jordan Pope creating their own shot, the team is shooting 40% from deep this season. 

Meanwhile, it’s the opposite for the other side of the floor, as Texas funnels teams inside to the rim and denies the perimeter. Tennessee’s offense is based around its off ball cutting and ball movement, but Texas does a good job of denying that and locking up at the rim, top 10 in field goal percentage allowed near the cup, per Haslametrics.

I think this game profiles to be a defensive minded affair with Texas having the better one-on-one shot creators to keep this one within a few possessions. 

PICK: Texas +6.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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